Chinese buyers remain highly cautious and continue to pressure prices lower, while the market waits for Brazilian supply to decline and seasonal consumption to improve.

A Chinese trader told World Beef Report (WBR) that the market now has a clearer picture of the volume shipped from Brazil during June, removing part of the uncertainty and providing a positive factor for price formation.

Taiwan continues to show stable demand for Paraguayan beef. An exporter reported deals for shin & shank at US$ 7,400 CFR per ton and rib finger at US$ 9,200 CFR.

The European Hilton rump & loin market remains very quiet and is beginning to show some downward pressure, particularly due to the lack of firm buying interest.

An Argentine source said trading activity is limited and that several exporters are submitting offers without having confirmed demand. Asking prices remain between US$ 20,000 and US$ 20,200 FOB per ton, although the few deals concluded have been closer to US$ 19,900 FOB.

Uncertainty over the future access of Brazilian beef to the European market continues to shape importers' purchasing decisions. A European source told WBR that some frozen beef business has already been concluded, although doubts remain about product availability for August shipments.

A European importer told WBR that the quarterly 2,500-ton grainfed cattle allocation under the 481 quota was exceeded by 46%, reaching 3,650 tons. As is customary, the full volume will be apportioned among all importers, who will each pay a share of the full levy.

Beef exports from Mercosur countries to Israel are growing significantly in both volume and value. With the regional conflict driving the need to build food inventories, Israel has accelerated its purchases this year.

The increased availability of Brazilian and Australian beef is putting downward pressure on imported beef prices in the United States, although domestic market fundamentals remain solid, an Argentine trader told World Beef Report (WBR).

The Chilean market remains stable for Paraguayan beef, with quotations holding at US$ 7,300 CIF Santiago per ton for the chilled 19-cut set, unchanged from the previous week, an exporter said.

A Brazilian exporter said there was little activity in the MENA market last week, while Russia showed stronger buying interest.

The regional average value of slaughter cattle declined for the third consecutive week, pressured mainly by lower Brazilian cattle prices following the completion of production for exports to China.

Driven by the rush to complete the last shipments that will arrive in China in time to qualify under the 2026 quota, Brazilian beef exports reached their highest monthly volume of the year in June, with particularly strong shipment activity during the final days of the month.

The first three business days of July saw a strong pace of beef exports but lower average export values.

China accounted for 158,365 tons of Brazil's frozen beef exports in June, representing 63% of the total, as exporters rushed to complete the last shipments eligible to enter under the country's 2026 quota of 1.106 million tons.

Although the United States remains comfortably Brazil's second-largest beef market so far this year, export volume in June was the lowest since last November.

Brazilian chilled beef exports to the countries of the European Union have been running at significantly higher volumes than in previous years.

Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture has begun implementing new inspection procedures for meat and other animal products to comply with European Union requirements regarding the use of antimicrobials throughout the animals' entire life cycle. The new rules will apply to sanitary certificates issued from September 3 onward, when the EU restrictions are set to take effect.

Brazilian meatpackers have reduced production and granted collective vacations at some plants after exhausting the production eligible to enter China under the preferential tariff.

According to the president of the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (Abiec), Roberto Perosa, the industry is going through an adjustment period following the slowdown in purchases by the country's main export market.

JBS granted collective vacations to workers at its Colíder and Juara plants in the state of Mato Grosso starting on July 1, according to sources familiar with the decision consulted by Valor. The initial period will be 20 days, with the possibility of being extended by another 10 days depending on demand and market conditions.

Brazil exported 660,700 head of live cattle during the first half of the year, a record and 37% more than in the same period of 2025.

The boi gordo market remains under downward pressure. “Reduced buying interest, higher idle capacity at meatpacking plants, and, in some cases, temporary production shutdowns or collective vacations for employees reflect weaker demand for finished cattle and a more cautious approach by processors when purchasing raw material,” Agrifatto said.

After bottoming out at less than 20,000 tonnes of beef exports in April, June data showed a second consecutive monthly increase, bringing export volumes back close to the levels typically seen over the past two years.

With 12,728 tonnes of frozen beef exported to China in June, the average FOB value reached record levels, according to Customs export application data. The volume was the highest since last October.

Despite a 16% decline in total export volume during the first half of the year, exports to most destinations fell. Israel and Japan were two notable exceptions.

Following the sharp increase in beef exports to the European Union last year, shipments have adjusted significantly lower this year, particularly in the frozen beef segment.

Bank credit to Uruguay's agricultural sector reached a new all-time high of approximately US$ 4.09 billion in May, according to the latest monthly data published by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). Compared to the same month last year, total lending increased by US$ 170 million.

Uruguay's National Meat Institute (INAC) has identified irregularities and imposed sanctions on several meatpacking plants due to deviations in dressing—the percentage of carcass weight removed between the third and fourth weighings—although the institute does not consider the issue to be widespread. Leonardo Bove, INAC's vice president, made the comments in an interview with Oriental Agropecuaria.

After cattle slaughter ran well below year-ago levels during the first five months of the year, June began to show signs of recovery, a trend that is likely to strengthen during the second half of the year.

The pronounced shortage of grassfed finished cattle continues to underpin the slaughter cattle market, with some price references posting modest increases compared to the previous week.

For the third consecutive week, cattle slaughter remained close to 45,000 head. INAC reported that 45,212 cattle were processed in the week ended July 4, up 1% from the previous week and 2% above the same week last year.

The supply of sheep for slaughter is virtually non-existent. Market prices continue to face upward pressure, with demand not particularly strong but sufficient to force buyers to increase their bids. Lambs are trading around US$ 6.15/kg, while ewes are quoted at US$ 5.10-5.15/kg.

According to official data, 1.077 million cattle were slaughtered in June, up 7.6% from May and the highest monthly figure so far this year, although still 5.1% below June 2025.

On a business-day basis, average daily slaughter reached approximately 53,900 head, up 2.2% from the previous month.

Between January and June 2026, 6.02 million cattle were slaughtered, almost 9% fewer than the 6.61 million processed during the first half of 2025. Steers recorded the sharpest decline, with slaughter falling nearly 18%, twice the overall average. They were followed by cows and heifers, both down 9%, while young steers, the largest category, declined 8%.

In June, the average carcass weight reached 241.2 kilos, surpassing the previous record set in May by another 0.4%. The increase is even more significant on a year-on-year basis, with average weight rising by 10 kilos, or 4.4%.

According to official US Customs data, by July 6 Argentina had already shipped 3,575 tons under the third quarterly tranche of the additional quota granted by Donald Trump for 2026, equivalent to 17.9% of the 20,000-ton allocation for the July-September period.

On Monday, the 2026/27 Hilton Quota was allocated under new criteria that, to some extent, allow a greater concentration of the quota among the largest meatpacking companies by eliminating some of the previous mechanisms that favored broader distribution.

Most export steer prices remained unchanged during the week. Finished British-breed and British-cross steers, which are considered to have the best beef quality, were quoted between Ar$ 7,900 and Ar$ 8,000/kg carcass weight, while maximum prices for Zebu-cross steers declined by Ar$ 100 to a range of Ar$ 7,500-7,700/kg.

Cattle slaughter at Paraguay's export plants reached its highest monthly level of the year in June, although it remained below year-ago levels.

Paraguay's beef exports rebounded in June, supported by higher production. As a result, shipments moved well above the lows recorded in April and May, when exports totaled about 18,000 tons per month.

Paraguayan beef exports to Israel reached their highest monthly volume in several years in June, totaling 5,659 tons. During the first half of the year, shipments reached 19,615 tons, up 24% year-on-year, making Israel Paraguay's third-largest export destination after Chile and the United States.

Paraguayan exporters are facing stronger competition from Brazil in Chile, traditionally their main export market.

Russia is Paraguay's main market for beef offal, followed by Taiwan and Brazil.

The cattle market remains stable, although market participants are beginning to see a larger supply of finished cattle that could put downward pressure on prices in the coming weeks.

Current references stand at US$ 5.00/kg for standard steers and US$ 4.80/kg for cows, with premiums of 3% to 5% depending on quality and the type of transaction, an intermediary told World Beef Report (WBR).

The US beef industry will gain a new financial tool for price risk management this month. CME Group has announced the launch of 90 CL and 50 CL Lean Beef Trim futures and options contracts, with trading scheduled to begin on July 20, pending regulatory approval.

The confirmation of the first New World Screwworm (NWS) cases in the United States has had little immediate impact on the cattle market, although agricultural economists warn the situation could become more serious if the parasite spreads beyond the current affected areas.

The United States Cattlemen's Association (USCA) has asked US President Donald Trump to impose tariffs and restrictions on all beef products from Brazil, including beef, beef cuts, and offal, without exceptions.

Australian beef exports to South Korea have exceeded 90% of the country's annual safeguard quota of 196,000 tonnes, putting Australia on track to trigger a tariff increase from 5.3% to 24% for the remainder of the year, likely by mid-July.

The Expana Choice boxed beef value fell below its year-ago level for the first time in 2026, signaling softer beef demand despite tight cattle supplies. According to Expana, the benchmark lost the premium it had maintained since the beginning of the year and, as of June 30, was trading at a US$/lb 0.046 discount to the same period in 2025.

Cash cattle prices declined for the first time in several weeks, providing some relief to processor margins. According to The AG Center, southern cattle traded mainly at US$/cwt 255 last week, while northern sales were reported at US$/cwt 255–256 live and US$/cwt 403 dressed, representing declines of US$/cwt 3–5 from the previous week.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices were mostly moderately to sharply lower last week.

On July 1, 3,551 tonnes were awaiting entry into the European Union under the third-country 481 quota (excluding the United States), exceeding the quarterly allocation of 2,500 tonnes by more than 1,000 tonnes.

Global beef consumption is projected to increase by 8% between 2026 and 2035, equivalent to about 6 million tons, according to the OECD and FAO's Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035.

The FAO Food Price Index, the benchmark for global food commodity prices, declined slightly in June as lower quotations for cereals, sugar, and dairy products offset higher prices for vegetable oils and meat, according to data released Friday by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Australian beef exports remained at historically high levels in June despite a sharp drop in shipments to China following the activation of the country's safeguard tariff. According to DAFF data, Australia exported 146,798 tonnes of beef last month, just below the all-time monthly record of 152,438 tonnes set in May. First-half exports reached 805,379 tonnes, up an impressive 103,000 tonnes from the same period in 2025.

Pablo Domínguez, CEO of ONE Uruguay, discusses the current state of global shipping logistics, the impact of the EU-Mercosur agreement, and the generational change at the helm of the Japanese shipping company.