Globally, the numbers are not there as cattle cycles come into sync.

In December 2025, the USDA FAS team forecasted that global beef production would decline by 1.5% in 2026 and that global beef exports would decline by 1.1%. Within weeks of this report, holes are starting to appear in this report.

As rarely happens in a country of limited size, there is a markedly different situation between the southern half and the north. While the north has enjoyed an almost well-watered summer, in the south — and particularly in the southeast — drought conditions are intensifying day by day.

The general strike without mobilization called for Thursday, February 19, by Argentina’s General Confederation of Labor (CGT), in protest against the labor reform promoted by the government, had a variable but significant impact on the export meatpacking industry.

Brazilian meatpackers have advanced a proposal to distribute the 1.106 million-ton China quota allocated to Brazil among exporters during the first three quarters of the year, in order to prevent part of the shipments made in 2025 from being counted against the 2026 quota, according to the portal Pecuaria.

Brazilian beef exports continue at a strong pace in the first two weeks of February. The Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) reported that 136,800 tons were shipped abroad for US$ 765 million during the first half of the month.

Australia recorded weekly cattle slaughter of 158,528 head for the week ending 6 February, the highest weekly throughput since 2019, according to NLRS data. The figure marked a 27% jump week-on-week and stood 13% above the same week last year.

Compared to the last market test, imported beef prices in the US were firm to higher, with some instances reported as sharply higher. Trading activity remained slow overall, although there was increased movement in forward sales.

In the northern US, cash cattle trade showed moderate gains last week. Live sales were reported at US$/cwt 245–246, up US$/cwt 1 to 2 from the previous week. Dressed trade ranged from US$/cwt 378 to 382, US$/cwt 1 to 4 higher. In the south, prices moved up to US$/cwt 246–249.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced the signing of an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade between the United States and Taiwan, delivering significant market access gains for US red meat.

McDonald’s reported fourth-quarter results showing broad-based comparable sales growth across all segments, supported by higher traffic and a strong value positioning strategy. Global comparable sales increased 5.7%, led by a 6.8% gain in the US. International Operated Markets rose 5.2%, while International Developmental Licensed Markets advanced 4.5%.

Cargill Meat Solutions Corporation announced the permanent closure of its processing unit in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, a decision that will result in the elimination of approximately 221 jobs.

As has been the trend in recent weeks, cattle prices continued to move upward over the past week.

Paraguay’s export meatpacking industry began 2026 with 43% utilization of installed slaughter capacity in January, according to the Slaughter Dashboard prepared by the Paraguayan Rural Association (ARP). In the first month of the year, 148,627 cattle were processed, a volume that represented a significantly lower level of industrial occupancy than the 59% average recorded in 2025.

The Minister of Agriculture and Livestock (MAG) confirmed that Paraguay will continue vaccinating against foot-and-mouth disease while technical discussions over the future of the sanitary program continue. Carlos Giménez stated that the current scheme will remain in place in 2026 and that full vaccination will also be carried out in 2027, bringing reassurance to the productive sector.

Once again, limited supply and strong export prospects drove higher prices for export cattle destined for slaughter. Steer values rose another Ar$ 100 per kilo carcass weight, with the best British-cross types moving into a range of Ar$ 8,100 to 8,350 per kilo, while zebu-cross animals climbed to Ar$ 8,000 to 8,200.

Data by category show that 71,122 steers were slaughtered, 4.4% fewer than the previous month and 25% below January 2025, as well as the lowest figure since at least 2020 (when category definitions were modified).

Final figures from the Secretariat of Agriculture confirm that 1.014 million cattle were slaughtered in January, 10.4% less than the previous month, 11.8% less than in January 2025 and the lowest level since January 2022.

According to industry sources, a meeting is being arranged between Argentina’s Undersecretariat of Agrifood Markets and the sanitary authority SENASA with their US counterparts, to review the tariff lines included in the new 80,000-ton beef quota granted by President Trump to Argentina.

Slaughter cattle prices broke through the highs reached in the first half of 2022 this week, meaning that in nominal terms they are now at the highest levels in history.

The January–February survey conducted by the National Livestock Information Network (RING) of the Plan Agropecuario (IPA) shows generally good forage conditions at the end of summer, but with significant heterogeneity due to uneven rainfall across different regions of the country. The situation in the center, south and east is “substantially more complex than in the rest,” the report stated.