Cattle slaughter closed the first quarter with an annual decline of around 10%. However, this gap is expected to narrow over the remainder of the year, particularly in the second half.

Tight supply of slaughter-ready cattle has kept the relationship between cattle purchase prices and export values under pressure.

Imported beef inventories in cold storage in China declined slightly in March after reaching peak levels in February, according to OIG+X data.

Wholesale beef prices in China have remained largely stable since the last quarter of last year, despite the sharp increase in import values following the safeguard measures introduced to protect domestic production from imported beef.

From March 15 to 16, 2026, senior economic officials from the United States and China held talks in Paris. Both sides conducted discussions on topics including agricultural trade, critical minerals, and trade management mechanisms, aiming to form actionable arrangements for a potential future meeting between the two heads of state.

The SENASA confirmed three cases of classical scrapie in sheep in the provinces of Santa Fe and Entre Ríos.

The USDA also projects a sharp decline in beef consumption in China, falling by 869,000 tons to 11.644 million tons as a result of lower imports and domestic production.

In international trade, global exports are forecast to decline 1% to 13.8 million tons, with lower shipments from the three leading exporters (Brazil, Australia, and the United States), along with the European Union. Expected increases in exports from India, Argentina, New Zealand, and Mexico will not be enough to offset the decline from the main global suppliers.

Global beef production in 2026 is forecast to decline by 1% to 61.6 million tons, due to lower output in Brazil, the United States, China, the European Union, and Australia, more than offsetting increases in India, Mexico, and New Zealand, according to projections released by the USDA this week.

“In 2026 the cattle cycle will reverse, but from a very weak starting point”

Were you surprised by the 2025 cattle inventory data?

Livestock balance indicators had long suggested that the herd would come in just below 51 million head, which is what it ultimately showed. What does surprise me is that, despite the very high heifer slaughter last year, the stock of that category remained unchanged.

In the year to March 28, the United States imported 716,361 tons of beef, up 12% from the same period in 2025, with increases from all major suppliers, but particularly from South America.

Most meatpacking plants are holding last week’s listed prices at US$ 4.50 per kg for standard males and US$ 4.20–4.25 per kg for fat cows.

Amid calmer conditions and ongoing uncertainty in international beef markets, export steer prices declined by around Ar$ 100 per kg carcass weight. British-breed crosses, which offer better meat quality, fell to a range of Ar$ 7,900–8,100 per kg carcass weight, while zebu crosses declined to Ar$ 7,800–7,900 per kg carcass weight.

According to Customs data, as of March 31, 25,962 tons of the EU Hilton quota for the 2025/26 cycle had been executed, leaving only 3,426 tons available for the final quarter of the agricultural year.

Between the end of 2024 and the end of 2025, the breeding herd (cows and heifers) declined by 516,000 head (1.8%), mainly driven by the cow category. According to the report, “this behavior was expected, given the level of female slaughter recorded in 2025,” although the decline was smaller than in the previous two years, when it averaged 850,000 head annually. Still, the 21.5 million cows in inventory represent the lowest level in 15 years.

According to a report from the Ministry of Economy based on data from SENASA, Argentina’s cattle herd totaled 50.92 million head as of December 31, 2025, down 704,000 animals from the previous year.

The period of weaker demand is over. Plants that had suspended or reduced slaughter are now showing interest in resuming operations, which not only set a floor for the market but also triggered a rebound, with prices this week reaching levels not seen in the previous one.

Based on the criteria outlined by Scayola, slightly more than one-third of the quota would be allocated to three plants.

The way in which the quota granted by China to Uruguay for 2026 will be distributed will be defined by the board of INAC “without urgency,” its president, Gastón Scayola, told WBR. The goal is to have it resolved before the next SIAL Shanghai trade fair, which begins on May 18.

“In the first week of April, the spot market for slaughter cattle went through one of the firmest periods in recent years,” according to an analysis by Agrifatto on the current state of Brazil’s cattle market.