Global beef consumption is projected to increase by 8% between 2026 and 2035, equivalent to about 6 million tons, according to the OECD and FAO's Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035.
Although total meat consumption is expected to grow by 12% over the next decade, per capita consumption will increase at a considerably slower pace than in the previous period, reflecting population aging, higher red meat prices, and growing concerns over health, the environment, and animal welfare in higher-income countries.
On the production side, global beef output is projected to reach 82 million tons by 2035, driven primarily by growth in China, India, and Pakistan. In contrast, the European Union is expected to continue reducing beef production because of the structural pressures facing the sector.
In international trade, Brazil, the European Union, and the United States are expected to remain the world's leading meat exporters, although the OECD and FAO project faster export growth from countries such as Argentina, China, Thailand, and Turkey. Regarding prices, the report anticipates that beef prices will remain firm in the short term due to herd rebuilding, although in real terms they are projected to decline by 16% by 2035 compared with the 2023-2025 average.
The report identifies animal diseases as the main risk facing the global meat market and highlights the resurgence of the New World screwworm in Mexico as one of the key concerns. According to the projections, a prolonged disruption of live cattle exports from Mexico to the United States could increase Mexican beef production by 6% and boost the country's beef exports by 18%. The report also warns that climate change, geopolitical tensions, and trade policies will continue to be major sources of volatility for the global market.
