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The Cepea/Esalq finished male cattle indicator reached a new nominal record last week in its historical series, which began in 1994. Tighter availability of finished cattle and firm demand continue to support prices in the Brazilian market.
Brazil’s entry into a herd rebuilding phase would reduce cattle availability and support prices during 2027, while the US beef processing industry is beginning to move beyond the worst point in its margin cycle. Bank of America (BofA) outlined this scenario following meetings with JBS, MBRF and Minerva.
Brazil is expected to record another increase in the number of grainfed cattle in 2026, despite sharply higher feeder cattle prices. Stable feed costs and rising finished cattle prices continue to support feedlot margins.
Last update 09/28/2026
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The Cepea/Esalq finished male cattle indicator reached a new nominal record last week in its historical series, which began in 1994. Tighter availability of finished cattle and firm demand continue to support prices in the Brazilian market.
Brazil’s entry into a herd rebuilding phase would reduce cattle availability and support prices during 2027, while the US beef processing industry is beginning to move beyond the worst point in its margin cycle. Bank of America (BofA) outlined this scenario following meetings with JBS, MBRF and Minerva.
Brazil is expected to record another increase in the number of grainfed cattle in 2026, despite sharply higher feeder cattle prices. Stable feed costs and rising finished cattle prices continue to support feedlot margins.
Brazil’s cattle herd contracted for the second consecutive year in 2025, reflecting the high slaughter levels recorded in recent years, particularly among females.
The Center-West led the decline, while the Northeast was the only region to expand its herd.
Brazil’s beef industry has challenged the possibility that the country could remain unable to export beef to the European Union for at least two years. Abiec maintains that Brazil has already implemented a protocol to meet European requirements and is calling for those efforts to be considered to accelerate the reopening.
Brazil has already filled the 1.106-million-ton quota established under China’s safeguard for 2026, meaning further shipments entering the Asian market this year will face an additional 55% tariff. However, the potential increase in beef availability in Brazil is unlikely to translate into lower prices, according to Datagro Pecuária.
BTG Pactual estimates that Brazilian stocks could still gain between 11% and 20% in local currency if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the presidential runoff. In a more optimistic scenario, the upside could reach 45%, according to a report released by the bank on Monday.
The projection rests on a repricing of assets amid expectations of more market-friendly economic policies and, particularly, stronger measures to address the fiscal imbalance. Improved perceptions of public finances could reduce risk premiums and allow stocks to trade closer to their historical valuation multiples.
This scenario gained traction following the first-round result. Flávio Bolsonaro received 47% of the vote against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45%, outperforming market expectations. The reaction was immediate: Brazilian stocks posted strong gains and the real strengthened against the dollar, while investors also responded favorably to the new composition of Congress.
The potential upside, however, depends on a prospective Flávio Bolsonaro administration providing concrete signals of fiscal discipline and an economic agenda supportive of investment. Beyond the election result, markets will therefore watch proposals for public finances and the makeup of the economic team. A reversal in electoral expectations could also quickly unwind some of the recent gains.
Source: Valor.
The US dollar fell more than 4% at the start of the week in Brazil, while São Paulo stocks surged. Markets are already pricing in an opposition victory in the October 25 runoff.
With the two main sheep processing plants inactive, sheep slaughter fell to its lowest level in six weeks.
INAC reported that 1,152 sheep were slaughtered in the week ending October 3, well below the approximately 11,000 head processed in each of the previous two weeks. Lambs totaled 994 head, accounting for 86% of the total.
