The confirmation of the first New World Screwworm (NWS) cases in the United States has had little immediate impact on the cattle market, although agricultural economists warn the situation could become more serious if the parasite spreads beyond the current affected areas.
According to the latest Farm Journal Ag Economists' Monthly Monitor, 75% of surveyed economists expect the outbreak would have a moderate, significant or severe economic impact on the livestock sector if it expands, though none currently view it as catastrophic.
Since the first case was confirmed in Texas on June 3, the number of confirmed detections has risen to 27 across Texas and New Mexico as of June 30. Feeder cattle futures initially fell by more than US$/cwt 5 following the announcement but recovered nearly all of those losses the following day. Analysts such as Oklahoma State University's Derrell Peel said the market had largely priced in the risk beforehand and that the main economic burden remains concentrated on producers operating within affected regions through higher inspection, treatment and management costs, rather than broader market fundamentals.
The survey also found mixed opinions regarding USDA's response. While 40% of respondents said it is still too early to assess the agency's actions, 33% considered the response adequate and 20% viewed it as partially inadequate. Most economists (71%) supported reopening the border to Mexican cattle under stricter inspection and biosecurity protocols, arguing that the prolonged closure has reduced cattle supplies for US feedlots while strengthening Mexico's domestic beef industry.
Despite concerns over NWS, economists continue to rank drought as the greatest threat to the US cattle industry, ahead of cattle prices, production costs and livestock pests. They also noted that NWS could have broader economic consequences by affecting wildlife populations, particularly deer, which support an important hunting industry in several US states.
Source: Drovers
