Following another edition of SIAL Shanghai, the Chinese market showed somewhat more activity again, with buyers resuming inquiries and validating firm prices for some products, according to some agents, although others hold the opposite view.

The European chilled Hilton market for the rump & loin set is going through a transition week, with doubts about the sustainability of the prices reached after the elimination of the 20% tariff.

This week the European Union distributed the first allocation of the new beef quota under the EU-Mercosur agreement among around 300 importers. That volume may be used between June 1 and July 31, corresponding to the May-June bimester.

A regional trader described the US market as being surrounded by high commercial uncertainty, with operators still trying to decipher the real impact of tariff changes and contradictory signals from Washington regarding whether the 26.4% out-of-quota tariff will be removed to lower domestic beef prices.

The Chilean market continues to show a strong presence of Brazilian supply, with deals for 19 cuts in a range of US$ 7,000-7,100/t CFR, according to an importer.

A trader reported new deals from Uruguay to the Middle East in the sheepmeat segment during the last week, in a market that continues to show demand for these products.

Stability prevailed in regional slaughter cattle prices. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index remained stable at US$ 4.94 per kg carcass weight, with firmness in Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina offsetting the moderate downward correction in Brazil.

In the cumulative total for the first three weeks of May, Brazil exported 203,481 tons of beef at an average value of US$ 6,492/t, according to data released by the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex). The daily average of shipments stood at 13,565 tons.

Brazil’s cattle slaughter under inspection (federal, stadual or municipal) totaled 10.29 million head in the first quarter of 2026, up 3.3% from the same period last year, according to IBGE data, reflecting continued strong cattle availability despite signs of a shifting cycle.

Brazil has submitted a list of 33 meat plants seeking export approval to China, including 20 beef facilities, in a fresh push to expand access to the world’s largest beef import market.

Brazil has asked the European Union for a transition period to comply with new antimicrobial use requirements affecting beef exports, following the bloc’s decision to remove the country from the list of approved exporters of animal-origin products.

Uncertainty over the exhaustion of Brazil’s quota in China dominated much of the discussion at SIAL Shanghai 2026. However, according to Alison Navarro, head of MBRF’s beef division, the outlook is becoming clearer, with Brazil likely able to continue exporting to China through July before redirecting part of its production to other markets, particularly the United States.

JBS posted record results for the first quarter of the year, with net sales reaching US$ 21 billion, up 11% year-on-year, driven by the strong performance of its international operations, especially in Australia. However, the company again warned about a very challenging scenario for the US beef industry, where its beef division posted losses of US$ 230 million due to severe cattle shortages and high replacement costs.

On two consecutive days (May 19 and 20), China’s customs authority, GACC, approved three Brazilian beef plants and suspended three others.

Prices for slaughter cattle corrected lower again, although the downward trend moderated compared to previous weeks.

The Uruguayan delegation led by the Undersecretary of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries, Matías Carámbula, advanced in China’s Jilin Province on an agenda focused on animal health, food safety and biotechnology applied to agricultural production.

As occurred during the weeks of sharp price declines in March, disparity returned to the finished cattle market. Some companies stepped away from the market or are quoting lower purchase prices, while others are maintaining the same price levels or even a few cents above last week’s references.

The production peak for the 481-quota window is now behind and cattle slaughter dropped by just over 3,600 head, down 8% from the previous week.

INAC reported that 43,554 cattle were processed in the week ending May 23, down 3,620 head (-8%) from the previous week and also 8% below the same week last year.

Sheep slaughter recorded a slight decline last week, with lower lamb slaughter partially offset by increases in other categories.

Beef exports reached 46,114 tons product weight in April (around 63,700 tons carcass weight equivalent), down 26.5% from the previous month, 13% lower than a year ago and the lowest since March 2025.

The average price of Argentine beef exported in April was US$ 6,968/t, 2.5% above the previous month and 37.7% higher than in April last year. It was a record value, even surpassing the previous peak from April 2022, at the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when prices were around US$ 6,300/t.

Between January and April 2026, beef exports totaled 211,296 tons worth nearly US$ 1.4 billion, representing growth of 7.5% in volume and 44.5% in value compared to the first four months of last year.

Although beef shipments to China had rebounded in March to reach the highest volume since November 2025, they fell sharply in April: exports totaled 14,750 tons of frozen boneless beef and 11,737 tons of frozen bone-in beef. In the former case, it was the lowest level since April 2018, with the highest average value in the entire series at US$ 5,940/t.

The US market continues to increase its purchases of Argentine beef at a rapid pace, consolidating itself as the country’s second-largest destination: in April it bought 983 tons of chilled beef and 9,914 tons of frozen beef, for a total close to US$ 90 million.

The 2026 edition of SIAL Shanghai provided a clearer picture of China’s beef market, but also highlighted new challenges for Argentine exporters. That was the view of Hugo Borrell, CEO of ArreBeef, who said the restrictions imposed by China on Brazil and Australia could create opportunities for Argentina, particularly in the grainfed segment.

Export cattle prices saw some setbacks linked to uncertainty or weaker markets. Steers of the best beef quality, British-breed crosses, remained in the range of Ar$ 7,900-8,100 per kg carcass weight, while zebu-cross steers fell by around Ar$ 100 per kg carcass weight, to a range of Ar$ 7,700-7,900.

Cattle prices remain firm and gained another 5 cents this week, with list prices at US$ 4.85-4.90 per kg carcass weight for regular males.

The opening of the Chinese market in 2019 marked a turning point for Bolivia’s beef industry. That was the view of Jaime Barrenechea, general manager of Fridosa, who highlighted the strong modernization and expansion process the country’s cattle sector has undergone in recent years, driven by beef exports to China.

US beef production is expected to decline again in 2027, reaching the lowest level since 2016 amid strong herd retention and an increasingly tight supply of slaughter-ready cattle. According to projections published by Beef Magazine, production would fall 0.9% year-on-year to 25.310 billion pounds, following an estimated 1.8% decline in 2026.

The US beef packing industry showed signs of modest deconsolidation in 2025, with smaller plants increasing both in number and market share, while the largest processors lost some ground amid tighter cattle supplies.

US cattle on feed as of May 1 totaled 11.6 million head, up 2% from a year ago and slightly above market expectations, marking the first year-on-year increase in 18 months, according to the USDA.

US cattle futures came under heavy pressure late last week, dragging cash cattle prices lower as traders reacted to weaker beef prices, softer retail features ahead of Memorial Day and a larger-than-expected USDA cattle on feed report, The AG Center said.

Compared to the previous market test, US beef import prices were mostly moderately lower, with some instances steady to weak. Trading with Australia and New Zealand remained slow, while South American business was moderate.

Amid the worst foot-and-mouth disease outbreak seen in South Africa in decades, some producers and technicians have started paying close attention to the different response of local cattle breeds to the disease. Among them, the Nguni breed has stood out for showing greater health resilience and adaptability under extremely challenging conditions.

Australia produced a record 730,077 tons of beef in the first quarter of 2026, up 8% year-on-year, marking the strongest start to a year on record for the country’s beef sector.

Australian feedlots marketed a record 1.05 million head in the March quarter, up 11% from the previous quarter, underscoring the growing importance of lot feeding in the country’s beef supply chain.

New Zealand’s sheep industry continues to surprise with historically high lamb prices. According to Farmers Weekly, AFFCO offered contracts of up to NZ$ 12.20/kg for lambs delivered in September, the highest level ever recorded and about NZ$ 2/kg above last winter. At the current exchange rate, NZ$ 12.20 is equivalent to approximately US$ 7.14/kg.

Chinese imports of Brazilian beef contracted sharply in April, reaching the lowest level in 11 months, since May 2025.

As expected, the relatively limited quota assigned by China to Brazil and Australia means that both countries are filling their quotas at a rapid pace.

China’s average beef import value jumped 8.1% month-on-month in April to US$6,131/t, according to GACC data.

Uruguay, which until 2023 had been China’s leading frozen bone-in beef supplier, fell to third place during the first four months of 2026.

With the virtual disappearance of the United States from the market, Uruguay became the dominant supplier in China’s imported bovine offal segment.

Fernando González, principal at Copayan, spoke with WBR from SIAL Shanghai about the international market outlook, the situation facing Uruguay’s beef industry, and the expansion plans of the Rocha-based processor.