A regional trader described the US market as being surrounded by high commercial uncertainty, with operators still trying to decipher the real impact of tariff changes and contradictory signals from Washington regarding whether the 26.4% out-of-quota tariff will be removed to lower domestic beef prices.
“To be honest, I don’t even know what is happening there,” the trader summarized. Beyond that confusion, the operator warned about a factor beginning to gain weight in the market: potential greater supply pressure from Brazil. “What is looming over them is a tsunami of Brazilian beef,” he said, referring to the potential redirection of Brazilian volume toward the United States due to the fulfillment of Brazil’s quota in China.
At the SIAL fair in Shanghai, some Brazilian exporters were discussing the possibility that during several months in the second half of the year — when they will not be operating with China — Brazil could ship between 50,000 and 80,000 tons per month to the United States.
According to a Paraguayan exporter, the US market remains very quiet with no new deals closed. “They are offering lower prices that no longer compete with other markets,” the source said.
