Editor: Rafael Tardáguila
rafael@tardaguila.com.uy
The 2026 edition of SIAL Shanghai provided a clearer picture of China’s beef market, but also highlighted new challenges for Argentine exporters. That was the view of Hugo Borrell, CEO of ArreBeef, who said the restrictions imposed by China on Brazil and Australia could create opportunities for Argentina, particularly in the grainfed segment.
“It is now clear that there will be no changes to the safeguard measures and no additional quota for Brazil, which gives a more defined outlook for the rest of the year,” Borrell said during the fair in Shanghai. He argued that while Argentina will lose competitiveness in the United States following the elimination of beef import tariffs, its position in China could strengthen.
“If more suppliers shift toward the US market, China will be better protected in terms of raw material supply, and with safeguard quotas being exhausted in the coming months, it should become a prosperous market for Argentina,” he said.
Regarding the mood among Chinese importers, Borrell said caution dominated throughout the fair. “Everyone says they have a lot of stock, but they are playing poker. Not much business was done because they are still speculating about what will happen,” he said. However, he believes the market direction is already largely defined and that Argentine business could reactivate in the coming weeks.
The ArreBeef CEO noted that Australia has already exceeded 80% utilization of its quota, while the United States remains constrained by China’s restrictions on beef produced with growth promotants. In that context, he said Argentina is looking to strengthen its position in the grainfed segment.
“We have been developing that business model for several years. Argentina is behind, but moving steadily and consistently. Many plants have already developed strategies to position themselves in this higher value-added niche,” he said.
Borrell acknowledged that cattle supply in Argentina will remain very tight throughout 2026. “The whole year will be difficult,” he warned. He said the arrival of winter will trigger a greater flow of cows to market, allowing for a few months of higher beef availability for China, although supply constraints will return afterward.
According to Borrell, cow beef prices for China remain firm, in a range of US$/t 6,800–7,200, despite some correction in Brazil.
Asked about a potential reduction in export taxes in Argentina, Borrell said any improvement in trade conditions is quickly transferred to cattle prices. “Every incentive goes straight into cattle prices. We are the tightrope walkers in this business,” he said.
Regarding Europe, the executive said the recent decline in Hilton quota values appears to be more of an importer strategy than a structural weakening in demand. “Prices had reached historically high levels for too many weeks, and importers wanted to cool the market somewhat,” he said. Still, he emphasized that current levels remain exceptionally high.
