US beef production is expected to decline again in 2027, reaching the lowest level since 2016 amid strong herd retention and an increasingly tight supply of slaughter-ready cattle. According to projections published by Beef Magazine, production would fall 0.9% year-on-year to 25.310 billion pounds, following an estimated 1.8% decline in 2026.
The reduction is the result of seven consecutive years of declining beef cow inventories, which has led to smaller calf crops and reduced supplies of cattle available for feeding and slaughter. In addition, the USDA highlighted that producers have begun retaining more heifers to rebuild herds, a trend expected to continue in 2027 and further tighten supplies of finished cattle.
The report also projects that US beef imports will remain at historically high levels in 2027, second only to the record forecast for 2026, partially offsetting lower domestic production and helping sustain supplies in the local market.
Despite still challenging weather conditions due to drought across several cattle-producing regions, the market is projecting record prices for next year. Beef Magazine indicated that 750-800 pound feeder steers in Oklahoma are expected to average US$ 382/cwt in 2027, 1% above 2026 levels, while slaughter steer prices in the five-area region are projected to rise 2% year-on-year to US$ 253.75/cwt (US$ 5.59 per live kilo).
For 2026, the USDA has already revised its price forecasts upward following new record highs reached in April and May, driven by tight cattle supplies and reduced selling pressure from feedlots. The source indicated that average annual feeder cattle prices would rise 17% from 2025 levels, while slaughter cattle prices would increase 11% year-on-year.
Source: Beef Magazine
