Report 1643

Downward pressure on China’s purchase prices extended beyond Brazil over the past week, according to several agents speaking with World Beef Report (WBR). An Argentine trader said the market is “very much on standby” awaiting tariff news but admitted it has “deflated.” “I’m not sure if this softening is because we had reached very good relative price levels or if it’s exclusively due to the tariffs (announced by the U.S. on Brazil),” he added.

The European chilled market for Hilton rump & loin cuts saw little change last week. Argentine sources quoted business in the US$/t 16,800–17,200 FOB range, although some plants were asking US$/t 17,300 to even US$/t 17,500 for new deals.

U.S. importers have shown more interest in closing deals with Australia over the past week (to compensate for Brazil’s potential market exit) than with other South American origins like Argentina, Uruguay, or Paraguay, according to a trader speaking with WBR.

A Uruguayan exporter reported deals for liver to Russia last week at US$/t 1,950 FOB and noted active orders for heart, also placed at similar price levels.

Markets in the MENA region have not shown their “best face” in recent weeks, anticipating a potential increase in Brazilian supply due to the looming blockade the country could face in the U.S. from next week.

The approach of Chile’s September National Holidays has firmed up import prices over the past week.

The sharp decline in slaughter cattle prices in Brazil is having a significant impact on the average cattle value across the region. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index fell 7 cents in the week to US$ 3.86 per kilo carcass weight, the lowest level since early June.

Brazilian beef exporters intensified their daily shipping pace in the third week of July. According to data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), 68,516 tons were shipped at a daily rate of 13,703 tons, the highest since the third week of April.

About 30,000 tons of Brazilian beef destined for the United States are being held at ports or in transit due to President Trump’s threat of an additional 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. government, scheduled to take effect on August 1.

The Brazilian livestock chain could lose up to US$ 1.3 billion in exports to the United States if the tariff hike announced by Donald Trump’s government is confirmed. The estimate was released by the Instituto Pensar Agropecuária (IPA), linked to the Parliamentary Agricultural Front (FPA).

Brazil's finance minister said on Monday his country would not give up negotiating with the US but acknowledged that a trade deal may fail to be reached by August 1, when President Donald Trump's 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods are due to take effect, Reuters reported.

Last week, Chile officially recognized Paraná as free of foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination and classical swine fever. The announcement had been made in April during the Chilean president’s visit to Brazil.

The withdrawal of export plants from the market left almost exclusively domestic buyers purchasing cattle, which put additional downward pressure on prices.

The Commission for the Promotion and Defense of Competition (Coprodec), part of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, announced a new 60-day extension to decide on Minerva’s purchase of Marfrig’s slaughter plants.

In a meeting with Campo Unido, Economy Minister Gabriel Oddone told representatives of the agricultural associations that the Executive Branch will respect the Coprodec ruling regarding Minerva’s purchase of Marfrig’s assets.

The intense cold of early winter, with several consecutive frosts and mornings below 0°C, affected the condition of natural fields and sown pastures. However, the good condition of the cattle entering winter has allowed them to maintain good body condition.

The Minister of Livestock, Alfredo Fratti, announced that Ukraine has authorized the import of both bone-in and boneless beef and lamb. All plants currently authorized to export to the European Union will be eligible.

The National Meat Institute (INAC) released the monthly Type Steer 2.0 report. The Industrial Added Value (IAV) — which includes industry costs and profits — reached its lowest percentage share since June 2023, while the cattle component recorded its highest value since September 2022.

The Directorate General of Livestock Services (DGSG) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries (MGAP) issued a resolution establishing new requirements for authorized slaughterhouses exporting beef, meat products, and by-products to the European Union, in compliance with Regulation (EU) 2023/1115 on deforestation-free products.

The dollar exchange rate once again broke below the psychological threshold of $40 yesterday, closing at $39.98 per dollar —a daily decline of 0.5% and down 9.3% since the start of 2025.

The upward trend in slaughter cattle prices that had begun in the second half of April now seems to have come to an end. Part of the demand is focused on operations with cattle from feedlots, whether company-owned or pre-purchased, leaving aside the spot market for grassfed animals. As a result, demand has decreased and is finding a balance with a supply that is also limited.

July 18 public holiday was felt in last week’s slaughter activity. INAC reported that 40,051 cattle were processed in the week to July 19, about 1,100 fewer than the previous one and once again the lowest level of activity since Easter week, exactly three months ago. The return to operations at the Tacuarembó plant, which allowed Marfrig to run its four plants, was not enough to offset the holiday.

Although sheep slaughter activity is very limited due to the absence of several plants on the demand side, the market remains very firm with interest across all categories — provided that carcasses weigh less than 24 kilos.

Argentina’s chilled and frozen beef exports in June reached 61,468 tons (product weight), up 12.7% from the previous month and 4.6% above June 2024. It was the month with the highest shipment volume since November 2024 and marked the first year-on-year increase so far in 2025.

China played a decisive role in June’s remarkable export growth: it purchased 31,106 tons of boneless frozen beef —25.5% more than the previous month— for US$ 152.5 million, and 16,340 tons of bone-in frozen beef, up 20.3% from May, for US$ 32.8 million. As a result, China accounted for 77.2% of the total volume exported in June.

In the first half of 2025, Argentina’s beef exports reached 312,647 tons (product weight), worth US$ 1,587.9 billion.

Exports of beef offal and preparations totaled 9,200 tons in June, worth US$ 19.4 million. Average prices rose across all products, reaching US$ 2,120 per ton.

After a failed tender in 2024 and many discussions that delayed implementation, Argentina’s mandatory electronic identification system for cattle is finally expected to take effect on January 1, 2026. Initially, it will apply to all “calves at weaning or before their first movement.”

Export steers recorded a new price increase in local currency, around Ar$ 50 per kilo carcass weight. Crossbred British steers, with better meat quality, moved into the Ar$ 5,300–5,400 range, while Zebu-cross steers rose to Ar$ 5,100–5,200 per kilo carcass weight.

Cattle prices were further strengthened in Paraguay, with most deals for common steers around US$ 4.00 per kilo carcass weight and US$ 3.70 for cows. However, some plants were offering higher prices to secure animals amid limited supply, an intermediary told WBR.

Major US corporations and trading partners are scrambling to adapt to a new global economy, even as President Donald Trump mulls the imposition of historic tariffs in less than two weeks, The Washington Post reported.

New data showed the number of shipping containers carrying US imports fell for a second straight month, setting the stage for one of the sharpest year-on-year reversals on record thanks to President Donald Trump’s trade war, informed Bloomberg.

Packers will choose the only defense available to them — trim the kill. There are limits to slaughter reductions and some restrictions created by union contracts that specify minimum hours each week. Already most plants are pared back near those minimums.

Compared to the last market test, beef import prices in the US were moderately to sharply higher.

Global food production is expected to increase by approximately 14% over the next ten years, driven by technological improvements and productivity gains, according to the Agricultural Outlook 2024–2033 report published by the OECD and FAO.

Brazil is the world’s largest beef exporter and, therefore, has a significant impact on global exported beef demand. Livestock pricing is heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics. This means cattle prices in Brazil greatly affect the global competitiveness of Australian beef, MLA said.

China’s beef imports rose to around 220,000 tons in June, the highest volume since January and above the same month last year, according to GACC data released by OIG+X. It was the first month this year showing a year-on-year increase in volume.

China’s beef import data for June show a rise in volumes arriving from South America and a collapse in U.S. beef imports because of the tariff war unleashed between Washington and Beijing.

China’s beef offal imports are concentrated in products from Uruguay and the United States, with Russia and New Zealand following on a second tier. However, U.S. access problems have sharply reduced volumes from that origin.