Sharp drop in the dollar and its year-end projection

The dollar exchange rate once again broke below the psychological threshold of $40 yesterday, closing at $39.98 per dollar —a daily decline of 0.5% and down 9.3% since the start of 2025.

In the Central Bank’s Economic Expectations Survey, the 25 analysts and economic agents who responded in July projected a sharp downward revision in their exchange rate forecasts. The median response now projects the dollar at $41.60 by the end of December, compared to $42.40 in the June survey.

This projection implies a 5.5% appreciation of the Uruguayan peso over the course of 2025, in addition to inflation expectations of 4.6% annually.