This Wednesday marks the start of a new edition of the CIIE (China International Import Expo) in Shanghai —one of the most important events on China’s calendar, where importers and exporters typically engage in face-to-face negotiations. The CIIE will run through Monday, November 10.

Transactions for Hilton rump & loin cuts saw a notable decline last week. “Weeks 47, 48, and 49 are usually difficult because the meat arrives too close to the holiday period,” one exporter told WBR.

The U.S. market remains steady, with low activity and operators waiting for clarity. “Things are pretty quiet, very similar to last week. Everyone’s waiting to see how issues like the Argentine quota, Brazil’s tariff, and Mexican cattle imports will unfold,” a trader commented.

Market sources confirmed to WBR that the potential additional quota of 60,000 tons for Argentina would be temporary, granted under a mechanism in the U.S. Commercial Code that allows the president to open import quotas during periods of shortage.

Kosher slaughter for the U.S. and Israeli markets began in several countries of the region last week. Import market sources reported to WBR that operations have started in six Paraguayan plants. Prices for regular forequarter were around US$/t 7,500 FOB.

The Chilean market remains very quiet, with Brazil maintaining its dominance in volume and stable prices between US$/t 6,300 and US$/t 6,400 for the 19-cut set. “Some ask for US$/t 6,800, but there are no sales at those levels because the Chilean market is very slow,” one trader said.

A trader reported deals for lamb carcasses to MENA destinations at US$/t 6,200 CFR last week, though profitability remains “tight” given the steady rise in livestock prices week after week.

The first 2026 international meat market projections that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) was due to release in October were delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown since early that month. However, based on projections from USDA offices worldwide, a consistent decline in exportable beef volumes from major suppliers is evident.

With opposing forces at play last week, the average value of the Mercosur steer increased and reached its highest level since mid-2022, more than three years ago. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index rose by 5 cents in the week to US$ 4.15 per kilo carcass weight.

The Brazilian government is on the verge of achieving one of its greatest commercial breakthroughs in the meat sector in recent years: gaining access to the Japanese market for Brazilian beef.

Brazilian beef production could fall 5–6% in 2026 after three consecutive years of heavy cow slaughter, according to Rabobank’s latest projection. The supply adjustment, combined with lower calf availability, is expected to sustain high finished male prices at least until 2028, affecting the supply of finished cattle.

Brazil’s live cattle exports are growing at a rapid pace and could reach the highest volume in history in 2025, according to data from the MDIC compiled by Agrifatto. In September, 137,170 head were shipped —the second-highest monthly figure— generating US$ 147.9 million in revenue, with an average of US$/@ 76.32. So far this year, Brazil has exported 788,410 animals, up 16% compared with the same period in 2024.

Zimmer, a meat plant with more than 50 years in the Rio Grande do Sul meat industry, has filed for judicial recovery with the Regional Business Court of Caxias do Sul, citing debts totaling R$ 75 million, reported Estadão.

With solid domestic demand —supported by early-month salary payments— combined with strong export demand that remains at high levels, the slaughter cattle market continued to strengthen last week.

Although there was a significant drop in actual export volumes shipped in October due to the union conflict at the TCP terminal in the Port of Montevideo, export applications reported by Customs show that beef exports continued at a steady pace, only slightly below the previous month’s total.

Uruguay’s beef export applications to the European Union continue to grow at a strong pace, with both volumes and values significantly higher than in previous years.

In October, export application data show sales of 7,191 tons of offal and 1,419 tons of bovine intestines and stomachs, with China as the nearly exclusive destination.

Supply remains far from abundant, but demand positioned itself clearly lower, achieving a significant drop in purchasing prices, something not seen for a long time during the period of weaker spot-market demand caused by production for the 481-quota window, involving grainfed animals, either from company-owned feedlots or from previously arranged contracts.

Cattle slaughter fell by around 3,000 head last week despite being within the active 481-quota window, which typically brings strong industrial activity with steers and heifers.

The sheepmeat market remains very firm, with prices gradually rising. Lambs are being paid around US$ 5.65 per kilo carcass weight —clearly above the steer price, a difference not seen in quite some time. For mutton, prices are around US$ 4.80 per kilo.

“While many players take it for granted that the new quota recently negotiated between the governments of the United States and Argentina is already in effect or at least signed, reality is far from that,” said Miguel Gorelik, editor of the Argentine portal Valor Carne.

The sanitary authority Senasa has regulated the National System for Electronic Animal Identification, which includes cattle, buffalo, and deer, and will take effect on January 1, 2026. As established by Decree 841/2025, from that date onward, all calves —male and female— must have an electronic identification device in order to be moved, or even to remain on their birth farm after weaning.

A limited supply of cattle, the government’s favorable outcome in the legislative elections, the resumption of kosher slaughter, and recent rainfall all appear to have combined to trigger a strong rise in export cattle prices, reaching their highest real level of the year.

As expected —given the high idle capacity in the industry— cattle slaughter at export-approved plants saw a marked decline in October. A total of 165,955 head were processed, down 8% year-on-year (−15,000 animals) and about 8,000 fewer than in September.

In October, the average carcass weight rose to 255.2 kilos, a level not seen in recent years.

In an unusual development, the United States became the main destination for Paraguayan beef exports in October, surpassing Chile, which has traditionally been the leading market for Paraguayan exporters.

Frigorífico Concepción carried out the first shipment of Paraguayan meat products to the Republic of the Philippines, marking a new milestone for Paraguay’s livestock industry and consolidating its expansion strategy in the Asian market.

The slaughter cattle market in Paraguay showed some stability last week, although in a context of greater supply. Most plants are scheduling bookings for November 20, while others are already setting appointments from the 24th onward.

More than a dozen Republican members of the House of Representatives sent a letter to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer expressing concern about the Trump administration’s plan to increase imports of Argentine beef.

Texas, the state responsible for the largest share of U.S. beef production, believes conditions are already in place to reopen the border to Mexican cattle imports and is urging that trade to resume “as soon as possible.”

The contraction of the US cattle herd and restrictions on Mexican cattle imports have deepened the livestock shortage. The potential importation of Argentine beef appears as an alternative to help offset the deficit, though its overall impact would be limited, according to a report from the US Institute of Meat.

Cow-calf and feedlot operators are enjoying record margins, while beef packers have remained in negative territory since 2024. The shortage of market-ready cattle and higher labor costs continue to pressure the sector’s profitability.

The availability of cattle for slaughter continues to decline, and US beef packers are operating with almost 10 percentage points less capacity than a year ago. The contraction of the national herd and import restrictions have worsened the industry’s underutilization.

USDA price reporting allowed only a few sales in Texas and Kansas to be reported even though many “over the top” transactions completed in the cash market. USDA allows “over the tops” to be lost in the pool of formula cattle despite knowing the cash price each Monday morning.

Compared to last market test, US beef import prices were mostly sharply higher. Trading was moderate. Supplies remained tight.

In October, Australia exported 139,286 tons of beef —only slightly above the 139,012 tons shipped in September— marking the second-highest monthly total on record, surpassed only by the 150,435 tons exported last July.

The Australian beef industry has released its 2025 Annual Update under the Australian Beef Sustainability Framework (ABSF), showcasing record-breaking environmental achievements, strengthened market access, and a clear roadmap for future sustainability leadership, MLA said.

China’s Customs Administration (GACC) blocked the entry of 1,793 tons of imported meat in September, the vast majority being chicken meat (1,256 tons, 70% of the total) and 413 tons of beef.

The global sow herd is projected to decline in 2026, as producers face heightened uncertainty. While tighter competing meat supplies and lower feed costs will support a favorable margin environment for most producers, the industry remains cautious on herd expansion.