Brazilian beef production could fall 5–6% in 2026 after three consecutive years of heavy cow slaughter, according to Rabobank’s latest projection. The supply adjustment, combined with lower calf availability, is expected to sustain high finished male prices at least until 2028, affecting the supply of finished cattle.
RaboResearch estimates total production at 10.5 million tons carcass weight equivalent, reflecting reduced supply of both males and females and a shift by breeders toward herd rebuilding. The recovery in calf prices is one of the key indicators of this new cattle cycle.
In the domestic market, finished male prices have been rising since the second half of 2025. In October, futures contracts for February 2026 surpassed R$/@ 330, implying an expected increase of up to 10% compared with the spot market.
Rabobank notes that the appreciation is supported by lower supply and firm demand, both domestic and export, though it warns that retail consumption may shift toward cheaper proteins such as chicken and pork amid the rising cost of beef.
