The global sow herd is projected to decline in 2026, as producers face heightened uncertainty. While tighter competing meat supplies and lower feed costs will support a favorable margin environment for most producers, the industry remains cautious on herd expansion.
According to Rabobank's the industry is increasingly prioritizing productivity enhancements, herd health, and optimizing carcass weights to counterbalance limited herd growth. Notably, China's policy to reduce sow numbers by 1 million, approximately 2.5% of its current base, will result in a 1% reduction in global sow numbers. However, Brazil's continued sow herd growth, fueled by favorable margins and robust export growth, partially offsets this decline.
Global pork trade has seen a 3% year-over-year increase through June, with expectations to end 2025 at or slightly above previous levels. Brazil stands out as a key beneficiary, poised to expand its market share from 12% to 15% of total global pork volumes by 2025. This success is attributed to Brazil's strategic efforts to broaden market access and diversify export relationships. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions persist, with the US and EU facing trade challenges with key export markets, including China.
