The livestock cycle across the Mercosur countries has become aligned and is entering a herd rebuilding phase that will reduce the supply of slaughter-ready cattle, helping to keep the market firm.

Cattle slaughter declined across all four Mercosur countries during the first half of the year. The decrease reached 6%, considering export-oriented plants in Brazil and Paraguay and all registered slaughter plants in Argentina and Uruguay.

China's imported beef market showed some signs of improvement amid expectations that Brazil is close to exhausting its import quota, although several market participants believe it is still too early to speak of a sustained turnaround.

A regional trader said the market still lacks a clear direction. "There is no clarity," he said. He reported deals for 80CL trimmings from Uruguay at US$4,600/t, down sharply from the US$5,200/t CFR traded during the SIAL Shanghai exhibition in May. Shin & shank was quoted at around US$7,600/t, he said.

A regional trader said inquiries for South American grainfed beef have started to emerge following the exhaustion of Australia's quota but warned that logistics remain a major obstacle for chilled beef.

A Paraguayan exporter reported new business with Taiwan, where demand remains strong for selected high-value cuts.

Prices for the Hilton rump & loin set changed little over the past week, although the gap between Argentina and Uruguay narrowed considerably.

A European importer said that, with somewhat greater Argentine availability, business was concluded at around US$19,700-19,800/t FOB, while Uruguay, described as "lightly offered," traded at US$19,000-19,200/t FOB. Other Argentine sources said they were able to achieve up to US$20,000/t FOB.

A Brazilian trader quoted tenderloin side strap off at US$15,000/t CFR, 90CL blocks at US$5,200/t CFR, and 95CL blocks at US$5,400/t CFR, all outside quota, reflecting intense competitive pressure as Brazilian exports are redirected toward the US market.

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) markets continue to lack the capacity to absorb the volumes displaced from China.

Demand in Chile remains moderate, although importers expect gradual improvement as the September Independence Day celebrations approach.

The average slaughter cattle price across the Mercosur countries ended a three-week downward trend, supported by the appreciation of the Brazilian real, which lifted Brazilian cattle prices in US dollar terms.

The average value of Brazilian beef exports has been showing a moderate downward trend since reaching its peak in May. Over the three-week moving average through July 11, it stood at US$ 6,466 per FOB ton, more than US$ 100/t (-1.7%) below the average recorded during the last three weeks of May.

The female retention phase is beginning to consolidate in Brazil's leading cattle-producing state. In Mato Grosso, female slaughter declined 8% year-on-year during the second quarter, a clear indication that herd rebuilding is underway.

Indonesia has carried out a new round of audits at Brazilian meat processing plants in recent weeks as part of a process to expand the number of facilities authorized to export beef to the Asian country, according to industry sources cited by CNN Brasil.

JBS has revised its climate strategy, abandoning its goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2040 and instead focusing its greenhouse gas reduction commitments on direct emissions from its operations and energy consumption.

The European Union's ban on Brazilian exports of animal products has prompted JBS to advocate for stricter restrictions on the use of antimicrobials in Brazil.

A group of 14 organizations representing Brazil's livestock sector has voiced its opposition to incorporating the European Union's antimicrobial use requirements into Brazilian legislation. The organizations argue that applying those rules across the entire production chain would also affect producers who do not export to the European market.

A Brazilian market analyst expects finished male cattle prices to recover during the fourth quarter of the year, supported by the resumption of Chinese buying for the 2027 export quota, stronger demand from the United States and firmer domestic consumption.

Finished cattle prices in Brazil, expressed in local currency, declined for the fourth consecutive week, although the pace of the correction eased compared with the previous three weeks.

The 1.4% appreciation of the Brazilian real during the week reversed the trend for prices expressed in US dollars.

INAC has launched a promotional campaign for Uruguayan beef in Germany and the Netherlands, the country's two main markets within the European Union. The campaign includes advertising on social media, digital screens and outdoor billboards in major cities and transport hubs, including "The Whale," Germany's largest LED screen, located at Hamburg Central Station.

Prices for Uruguayan slaughter cattle continued to strengthen, with special grassfed steers returning to the record high of US$5.70/kg carcass weight, a level first reached in late February and matched again at the end of May.

Uruguayan cattle slaughter increased last week to its highest level in eight weeks, since mid-May, when production for the last 481 quota window was coming to an end.

INAC reported that 46,711 head were processed in the week ended July 11, up 1,500 from the previous week and more than 5,500 above the same week last year. During the second half of the year, slaughter activity is expected to remain above year-ago levels.

Sheep prices continued to move higher, extending a trend that has remained largely uninterrupted since early 2024.

Argentina shipped 53,196 tonnes of beef to the United States during the first half of the year, worth US$445 million, according to official government data. This represents 53% of the country's total annual allocation of 100,000 tonnes, which includes the traditional 20,000-ton quota plus an additional 80,000 tonnes granted for 2026 and distributed in four non-transferable quarterly allocations on a first-come, first-served basis.

According to SENASA data, cattle on feed totaled 2.17 million head as of July 1, up 120,000 head (6%) from a year earlier and the highest number since records began in 2008.

Export cattle prices remained broadly unchanged. Higher-quality British-bred steers were quoted at Ar$7,900-8,000/kg carcass weight, while crossbred cattle with Zebu genetics held at Ar$7,500-7,700/kg.

The Paraguayan slaughter cattle market showed a slight downward correction, although deals for male cattle with premiums are still being concluded at US$5.10-5.15/kg.

Some plants have lowered their bids to US$4.95/kg, while cows are quoted at around US$4.75/kg, with premiums of up to 5% for feedlot-finished cattle.

US beef exports posted mixed results in May 2026, with lower shipment volumes offset by higher export value as stronger prices and demand in several key markets boosted returns.

According to data released by USDA and compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF), exports of beef and by-products totaled 91,925 tonnes, down 5% year-on-year, while export value increased 2% to US$ 818.1 million.

US beef imports increased 9.9% year-on-year between January and May, the smallest increase for the period since 2023. In May, however, imports declined 5% from the same month last year, marking the first year-on-year monthly decrease since November 2025 and the largest since March 2023.

US fed cattle prices posted a sharp correction last week as lower futures and weaker boxed beef values pressured the cash market. Live cattle traded at US$/cwt 248 across all major regions, down US$/cwt 7 from the previous week, while dressed cattle sold at US$/cwt 393, a decline of US$/cwt 10.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices were mostly slightly lower, with some out-front sales reported moderately to sharply lower. Trading activity ranged from slow to moderate.

The European Commission has adopted a new Livestock Strategy that marks a significant shift in its approach over the past decade by recognizing livestock production as a strategic sector for food security, competitiveness, and the development of rural areas.

Poland has notified the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) of a new outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) at a domestic pig farm in Świecie, in the Kuyavian-Pomeranian region.

According to the immediate notification filed through the WAHIS system, the event began on July 6, 2026, and was confirmed the following day.

The exhaustion of China's annual 205,000-ton import quota triggered a sharp shift in the destination of Australian grainfed beef exports in June.

According to Beef Central, China's share of Australia's total grainfed beef exports fell from nearly 40% to just 12% in June, while Japan, South Korea and, to a lesser extent, other markets absorbed much of the displaced volume.

Manufacturing beef markets are coming under increasing pressure as Brazil redirects more product to alternative destinations while approaching the exhaustion of its annual beef quota for China.

Australia's Feeder Steer Indicator reached A¢/kg lwt 544 this week after gaining 38 cents (+7.5%) over the past month, approaching the record A¢/kg lwt 576 set in December 2021. According to Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), the stronger performance reflects rising feedlot demand, tight global beef supplies and the impact of China's beef import quota system.

The volume of imported beef held in cold storage in China edged lower in June from the previous month, ending a two-month trend of rising inventories.

China's imported beef market is entering a new phase of structural change that will reshape exporters' strategies in the second half of the year. According to OIG+X, growth will no longer depend solely on rising import volumes but increasingly on quota availability, product differentiation, and each supplier's ability to ensure a reliable supply.