Finished cattle prices in Brazil, expressed in local currency, declined for the fourth consecutive week, although the pace of the correction eased compared with the previous three weeks.
The 1.4% appreciation of the Brazilian real during the week reversed the trend for prices expressed in US dollars.
The average boi gordo price across Brazil's main cattle-producing regions fell R$2.4/@ over the week to R$315.8/@. Over the past four weeks, prices have declined by R$22/@.
The downward trend is directly linked to the end of production for China. However, market expectations are for conditions to reverse as the second half of the year progresses, supported by tighter cattle supplies —particularly females— as Brazil enters a herd rebuilding phase, and by the resumption of production for China in the fourth quarter, when processors begin producing against the 2027 import quota. This outlook is reflected in the B3 futures market, where October-December contracts are trading at premiums of R$25-30/@ over current cash market prices.
Bookings remain at around seven days from the time cattle are purchased.
"The outlook is for a market with limited ability to sustain prices, reflecting the expected loss of demand momentum during the second half of the month," Agrifatto said.
