A Brazilian market analyst expects finished male cattle prices to recover during the fourth quarter of the year, supported by the resumption of Chinese buying for the 2027 export quota, stronger demand from the United States and firmer domestic consumption.
According to Felipe Fabbri, Market Intelligence Coordinator at Scot Consultoria, the boi gordo price in São Paulo could surpass this year's high of R$/@ 360. He said the reduced availability of females for slaughter is tightening cattle supplies and supporting higher prices.
Fabbri added that from September onward, factors such as increased household income, temporary job creation and bonus payments should boost domestic consumption.
On the export front, he said meatpackers are already scheduling slaughter to supply China and the United States ahead of the implementation of new tariffs, while the retention of breeding females during the breeding season will further constrain cattle supplies.
