On top of China’s already weak market performance in recent weeks, a new factor of pessimism has emerged for trade activity. A trader told World Beef Report (WBR) that some Chinese importers are speculating about the possibility of additional tariffs on beef, similar to what happened with Spanish pork, which was hit with an extra 20% for “dumping.”

As usually happens before trade fairs —Anuga begins this Saturday, October 4 in Cologne, Germany— trading activity tends to be more limited. Nevertheless, export market sources warned of some softening in prices from Argentina.

The imported beef market in the U.S. was calmer. The drop in prices of butt and forequarter cuts in the domestic market put a temporary ceiling on values, slowing demand for imports, particularly from Australia.

The Chilean market is still not fully consolidated after the Independence Day holidays. Some importers expressed “surprise” at Paraguay’s prices, which remain firm in the range of US$/t 7,200–7,500 CFR for the 19 cuts, according to a trader.

According to a trader, sheepmeat export business was more difficult last week because of a perceived “softening” in demand, compounded by “scarce and expensive” supply from Uruguay.

The sharp appreciation of the Argentine peso after the Trump government confirmed its willingness to support Milei’s administration —preventing it from falling into an incipient economic crisis following the electoral defeat in the province of Buenos Aires— changed the tone of Argentina’s financial market. The peso appreciated nearly 6% in the week and pushed up the export steer price not only in Argentina, but also in the region.

Brazil had never shipped more than 300,000 tons of beef in a single month. It did so for the first time in September. According to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), with two business days left to complete the month, 294.7 thousand tons had already been exported at a daily pace of 14,735 tons.

In its latest projection for beef in Brazil during 2025, consultancy Agrifatto revised upwards the figures it had projected the previous month for production, exports, and domestic consumption.

The brief meeting between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump at the UN General Assembly was backed by active business efforts. According to Folha, Joesley Batista —partner at J&F Investimentos and shareholder of JBS— met with Trump three weeks earlier at the White House to raise the issue of eliminating the 50% tariff (10% global and 40% for Brazil) that affects Brazilian beef.

The price of beef in Brazil has accumulated an increase of 22.2% in one year, four times above the inflation rate for the period, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Despite the higher cost, red meat remains present on Brazilian tables, although with adjustments in consumption.

The Brazilian government reported that Azerbaijani health authorities have authorized the import of thermoprocessed poultry, cattle, goat, sheep and swine meat products from Brazil.

MBRF Global Foods Company announced last week that its Board of Directors approved a new buyback program of up to 25 million common shares, equivalent to 1.74% of the share capital and 3.23% of the company’s free float. The goal is to optimize the capital structure, efficiently manage resources, and increase value generation for shareholders.

Between January and August 2025, Brazil exported 624.1 thousand head of live cattle, an increase of 16.5% compared to the same period last year, when 561.3 thousand were shipped, according to a survey by Scot Consultoria based on Comex data.

The average price of the finished male fell again in reais last week, marking three consecutive weeks of downward correction. The average value in the main cattle-raising states is R$/@ 290.1, a weekly drop of R$ 2.1 and R$ 8.2 accumulated over the three weeks. The reference is based on state data from consultancy Scot, net of the Funrural tax and with 30 days for payment.

The Commission for the Promotion and Defense of Competition (Coprodec) of the Ministry of Economy once again ruled against the latest proposal submitted by Minerva for the purchase of Marfrig’s assets in Uruguay. Therefore, the possibility of Minerva acquiring Marfrig’s assets is definitively discarded.

In the ruling issued by Coprodec denying Minerva the purchase of Marfrig’s plants in Uruguay, the Brazilian multinational argued that the acquisition of the three slaughterhouses would not pose competition risks but would rather have a “real and significant deconcentration” effect.

With major groups having plants closed, others halting activity for a couple of weeks due to renovations, some working almost exclusively with feedlot animals, and others reducing slaughter days, demand for cattle in the spot market has decreased and prices have left behind the upward trend that had prevailed in previous weeks.

For the second consecutive week, cattle slaughter remained below 40,000 head. INAC reported that in the week ending September 27, 39,737 cattle were processed, 785 more than the previous week and 12% above the same week last year.

Demand for sheepmeat remains strong across all categories, with some plants working mainly with lambs and others with adult animals. Requirements for animal quality, both in terms of finish and carcass weight, are much more flexible than before, confirming the industry’s need to buy.

The Argentine government said, less than two days after having removed export taxes on agricultural products until October 31 or until US$ 7 billion was collected, that the second objective had already been achieved and that, therefore, export taxes return to the rates that were in effect until last Friday.

According to analysts and operators in Argentina’s beef export market, the reduction of the export tax will, in practice, be unenforceable due to the requirements established by the decree.

Boosted by excellent beef prices in the EU in a context of scarce supply of certified cattle, export steers saw a slight upward adjustment of Ar$ 50 per kilo carcass weight. Higher-quality finished cattle, British crossbreeds, moved into the range of Ar$ 6,050 to 6,150 per kilo carcass weight, while zebu crossbreds ranged between Ar$ 5,950 and 6,050.

The cattle market remained calm in recent days, with Monday’s holiday and heavy rain in Asunción reducing activity. Supply is scarce and industry demand is strong, with firm prices.

US consumer spending increased 0.6% in August, above expectations, as households took vacations and dined out, the Commerce Department reported. The data reinforced the economy’s solid footing in the third quarter, while inflation continued to edge higher.

This will be an important week for finding the negotiating strengths of the parties, said The AG Center about cattle operations in the present week. First comes the show list size then the regional positions. Declines of fed cattle numbers in both Texas and Colorado will encourage more movements from Nebraska and Iowa. Kansas will always be a pivot state but pulling cattle out of Texas for the beef plants in southern Kansas will become more difficult, The AG Center said.

Compared to the last market test, beef import prices in the US were moderately higher.

According to data published by Eurostat in the spring 2025 livestock surveys, the pig herd of the 13 EU member states that provide information reached 121.8 million head, 0.5% more than in 2024.

The National Processor Cow Indicator in Australia has lifted to its highest weekly price on record, reaching 390¢/kg liveweight (lwt) as of Wednesday 24 September, said Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) in an analysis of the evolution of female cattle prices. For context, this time last year, the indicator was nearly one dollar cheaper.

After having clearly trended upward during 2024 and the first half of 2025, cattle slaughter in Australia began to show signs of slowing since early August.

Russia and China are working on the mutual recognition of standards for meat products, and the agreement is expected to be finalized during 2026, according to Oksana Kuznetsova, director of the Gorbatov Federal Research Center for Food Systems, at the international conference on Food Quality and Safety (FQFS 2025).