Mercosur beef exports are expected to fall by around 256,000 tons carcass weight in 2026, leaving behind the record projected for this year. This figure is based on projections from the USDA offices in Buenos Aires and Brasilia for the four countries of the bloc.

Chinese importers continue to insist on paying less for new beef purchases from the region. Beef inflows into the country have been large over the last three months and will continue to be so this month and certainly next.

With a tight supply scenario, it was another week of increases for rump & loin cuts under the Hilton quota in Europe. Import market sources handled deals based on US$/t 19,500 FOB from Argentina, with specific deals reaching up to US$/t 19,800.

The U.S. import market was calmer at the start of this week due to the Jewish New Year holidays, which run until Wednesday, September 24, as many importers observe the religion, a regional trader explained to World Beef Report (WBR). Still, until last week, a “firmer” market was seen for imported trimming, although some “yellow flags” appeared due to two weeks of “consecutive declines” in domestic round cuts.

A Brazilian exporter told WBR that, given China’s weakness, other more attractive markets have emerged.

In the Chilean market last week, buyers returned after the National Holidays, some of them concerned about current prices. According to operators, Paraguay could cut its presence in Chile by more than 50% if cattle prices remain at current levels or climb further.

The average value of slaughter cattle in the region fell 3 cents this week as declines in Argentina and Brazil were partially offset by firm markets in Paraguay and Uruguay.

In the third week of September, Brazilian beef exporters intensified their pace of overseas sales. Based on data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), 72,371 tons were shipped during the week at an average value of US$ 5,643 per ton.

Cattle slaughter in Brazil would reach 40.8 million head in 2025, a 2.9% increase from last year, according to a projection presented by consultancy Datagro at an event in São Paulo. The growth would be driven by external demand, with expectations of record exports.

JBS said it is prepared for a likely shift in Brazil’s cattle cycle. Eduardo Pedroso, executive director of Cattle Procurement at Friboi, noted that after two years of a strong increase in the extraction rate of the Brazilian herd, the country may face lower availability of animals for slaughter in 2026.

Beef production in Brazil would fall 3.5% in 2026, to 10.6 million tons carcass weight equivalent, according to projections published by the National Supply Company (Conab). The reduction is explained by the lower animal supply after three years of heavy female slaughter and the start of herd rebuilding.

Brazil’s cattle herd in 2024 stood at 238.2 million head, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the historical peak in 2023, but still the second largest since records began in 1974, reported the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

Marfrig and BRF announced on Monday the completion of the merger process that gives rise to MBRF, one of the largest food companies in the world, based on a fully integrated multiprotein platform. Starting this Tuesday, the 23rd, the shares of the new company will be traded on B3 under the new ticker MBRF3. The date marks a milestone in the Brazilian capital market, said MBRF in a communique.

Brazil’s Labor Minister, Luiz Marinho, decided to personally assume the final review of a case that could include a JBS SA poultry unit on the “dirty list” of slave labor, according to documents reviewed by Reuters.

Bank of America reiterated its buy rating for JBS shares, highlighting that its geographic and business diversification provides greater resilience against the adverse outlook for beef in the United States. For Marfrig, however, it maintained a neutral position due to its heavy exposure to the U.S. market and limitations related to its current valuation.

Slaughter cattle prices deepened their downward correction this week, pressured by supply exceeding demand needs in the second half of the month, when domestic market purchases usually decline.

The Meat Industry Workers Federation (FOICA) issued a statement on Monday announcing a 24-hour general strike on October 2. In it, they stated that the “measure responds to the need to raise awareness of the complex situation that hundreds of families in our industry across the country are going through.

On September 17, 18, and 19, a Uruguayan delegation carried out an institutional tour in Malaysia, focused on the promotion and development of the market for Uruguayan beef, accompanying the Uruguayan government’s initiatives in its strategic positioning in Southeast Asia.

Since the middle of last week, slaughter cattle prices have remained within the same range, something that had not happened for several weeks. It seems that with some plants idle and the withdrawal of kosher teams, demand is showing a somewhat less aggressive buying attitude, while supply, with the advance of an almost ideal spring, is slowly starting to grow.

With fewer active plants and a very limited supply of grassfed animals, cattle slaughter fell to its lowest level since the first week of March, more than six months ago.

The sheepmeat market continues to show the same characteristics that have prevailed throughout the year: scarce supply and strong demand. Prices keep rising, with deals being closed at a premium over the references of the Consignors Association’s weekly sheet at the time of shipment. Lambs are being paid above US$ 5.30 per kilo carcass weight, and adult sheep at US$ 4.40–4.50.

The trade agreement sealed between the U.S. and the United Kingdom in May brought changes to the tariff-preference quota for beef from third countries, and new adjustments may arise in the future that could benefit Argentina, market sources warned in talks with World Beef Report (WBR).

In two announcements made a few hours apart, the Argentine government reduced the export tax to 0%, first on grains and then also including beef and poultry. The measure will remain in effect until October 31.

Javier Milei’s government announced the suspension of export taxes on grains and meat until October 31, although the measure is conditioned on exporters liquidating at least 90% of foreign currency earnings within three business days after the export permit is made official.

In its report with the first projections for Argentina’s beef sector in 2026, the USDA office in Buenos Aires forecasts that Argentina will export 830,000 tons (carcass weight equivalent) of beef, which would be the second highest volume ever recorded, after the 2024 record.

Although the USDA office in Buenos Aires estimates that China will remain the main market for Argentine beef, it notes that its importance is waning: from 2021 to 2024 it absorbed between 63% and 70% of Argentine beef, but in the first seven months of 2025 it accounted for 56%, while larger volumes went to Israel and the United States.

Despite booming exports, the USDA-Buenos Aires report projects beef production at 3.2 million tons, practically stagnant since 2022. It estimates that slaughter will decline slightly to 13.7 million head, but with a slightly higher average carcass weight of 234 kilos. “Since 2018, slaughter has ranged between 13 and 14 million head per year, with calf production between 14.5 and 15 million head.

In 2025 domestic beef consumption is expected to increase 6% year-on-year to 2.47 million tons, “due to the combination of greater beef supply and lower exports,” especially in the first quarter of 2025, the USDA office in Buenos Aires reported.

Exports of fresh and frozen beef reached 70,853 tons in August, worth US$ 393.5 million. In volume, these shipments were 11.2% higher than the previous month, 1.1% higher than August 2024, and the second highest for a month in the past two years (after September 2024). In value, shipments rose 10.6% month-on-month and 47.4% year-on-year.

The volume of beef exported during the first eight months of 2025 totals 448,593 tons (product weight), worth around US$ 2.345 billion. This performance is 10.4% lower in volume and 22.3% higher in value compared to the same period in 2024.

In August, exports to China, Argentina’s main beef destination, were the highest so far in 2025, with 32,487 tons of frozen boneless beef, and 18,500 tons of bone-in beef. The sum of both, almost 51,000 thousand tons, is 86.5% of frozen exports and 72% of total fresh beef exports.

Exports to the United States grew again in August for the second consecutive month, but they are still not close to the levels of the first quarter, despite expectations that Argentina’s shipments would accelerate given the extremely high tariffs on Brazilian beef in that market.

Despite the sustained rise in rump & loin values in the EU over the past two months, the diversification of fresh cuts shipped by Argentina drove down the average value of shipments to this destination. In Germany’s case, the average value in August was US$ 13,056, almost US$ 1,000 less than in June.

Export steer prices held at the levels reached a couple of weeks ago. The main factor of volatility in values expressed in dollars is the fluctuation of the exchange rate.

The debate over the future of foot-and-mouth disease vaccination in Paraguay continues to spark discussions and divergent positions among producers, industry, and authorities. Ramiro Maluff, president of the Paraguayan Association of Meat Producers and Exporters (Appec), said in an interview with Valor Agro that lifting vaccination in the short term would be a decision “risky and lacking technical support,” and that the worst that could happen is for the country to move forward “driven by political or institutional pressures.”

Against all forecasts, the departure of kosher teams and the closure of three plants did not prevent cattle prices from remaining firm and reaching new highs so far this year. Supply is limited, pastures are in very good condition, and rains are supporting the start of spring, an operator told WBR.

Rabobank expects the Jan. 1, 2026, beef cow inventory to be 28 million head — up 200,000 head from the prior year. A second increase of less than 500,000 head is likely over the following year.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) monthly Cattle on Feed report for September showed 11.1 million head in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more on September 1, 2025, down one percent from last year.

President Trump is planning to help beef producers by paying them to hold back heifers for breeding. This action as it was announced and will be implemented by USDA Secretary Rollins has the potential for sharp reductions in feedyard placements and will escalate the current beef shortages. Cattle futures shot higher.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices were sharply higher.

The European Union will delay launching its anti-deforestation law for a second time, Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall said on Tuesday, postponing the ban on imports of commodities such as palm oil linked to forest destruction for another year, informed Reuters.

The European Commission has opened a public consultation seeking input on the revision of EU legislation for on-farm animal welfare.

Farmers, citizens, businesses, national and regional authorities, NGOs (non-governmental organizations) and other interested parties are encouraged to share their views.

The National Union of Pig Producers of Russia estimates that exports will exceed 400,000 tons in 2025, with China consolidating its position as the third largest destination, informed the portal Pig333.

With around 8,000 exhibitors from 110 countries and a gross exhibition area of about 290,000 m², Anuga 2025 aims to be the largest edition in the event’s history. From October 4 to 8, the German city of Cologne will once again become the world capital of the food industry and the meeting point for more than 140,000 trade visitors from nearly 200 countries, with 94% of them coming from abroad.

Australian beef exports are forecast to ease modestly in 2026, in line with slightly lower production, but remain at the second-highest level on record—around 15 percent above the previous record set in 2024, said the USDA office in Canberra when makings its first projection for the Australian cattle industry in 2026.

Australian beef production is forecast to ease slightly in 2026 following an estimated record level in 2025, but output is expected to remain near historic highs, said USDA-Canberra.

Live cattle exports are forecast to remain strong but ease slightly in 2026, says the USDA office in Canberra.

China imported around 256,726 tons of beef in August, the largest amount since January, worth US$ 1.39 billion, OIG+X reported based on GACC data. Including beef offal, the total reached US$ 1.403 billion.

Brazil in frozen beef, Australia in chilled beef, and Uruguay in offal are the clear leaders as suppliers to the Chinese market.

In August China imported only 19.771 tons of sheepmeat worth US$ 77.349 million, OIG+X reported based on GACC data. The volume fell 9.5% year-on-year, although the value increased 20.2% due to a significant rise in average import price, which reached US$ 3,912 per ton in August.

As of September 17, all Namibian plants were banned from exporting beef to China, the GACC reported. The reason for the decision was not mentioned.