Bank of America reiterated its buy rating for JBS shares, highlighting that its geographic and business diversification provides greater resilience against the adverse outlook for beef in the United States. For Marfrig, however, it maintained a neutral position due to its heavy exposure to the U.S. market and limitations related to its current valuation.
In the U.S., the bank noted that current beef profitability is around US$ 88 per head, after a 12% increase in carcass value in September. However, it warned that the cattle cycle remains constrained, with female retention at 46%, below the historical average of 50%, and that recovery will only come after 2027.
In Brazil, the bank stressed that export margins remain high, even under the additional 50% tariff applied by the U.S. since August 1. According to the report, packers have managed to redirect part of production to other destinations, such as Mexico, which tripled its purchases in August. Brazil’s beef exports are up 24% from last year, with margins close to 30% in the third quarter of 2025, despite a 30% increase in finished male prices, which reached R$306/@.
The report concludes that JBS is better positioned to absorb external pressures thanks to its diversified operations, while Marfrig, more dependent on the U.S. through National Beef, faces greater sensitivity to the current phase of the U.S. cycle. Source: Globo Rural
