Report 1633

As is customary ahead of one of the world’s leading food fairs, SIAL Shanghai, trade with the Asian giant has shifted into “pause mode.” The new edition of SIAL begins next Monday, 19 May, giving meat market players a key face to face to gauge and plan business with China for the weeks ahead.

Another variable emerged this week: after the 90 day tariff truce agreed by the US and China, “many importers expect” the United States to return as a supplier, especially of grainfed beef and offal, a regional trader told World Beef Report (WBR).

The European Hilton chilled market showed renewed firmness last week. Two import sources put rump and loin cuts from Argentina around US$/t 17,600–18,100 FOB; attempts to buy at US$/t 17,500 failed to find offers. Argentine market contacts also reported downward pressure from some players who argued that the first warm weather in Europe is slowing consumption, and the return of kosher slaughter should increase supply versus previous weeks. For Uruguay, a trader cited deals at US$/t 16,600–16,800 FOB.

The US beef import market is far from normalizing, particularly for manufacturing beef. A US trader told WBR that operators are “slowly” spreading the 10 % surcharge: “No one wants to shoulder the full cost.”

The Chilean import market is starting to test the price range for purchases ahead of September’s national holidays, with most cargoes usually booked in July and August.

The average slaughter cattle value in the region snapped a two week correction and moved up, thanks chiefly to recovering prices in Argentina. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index gained 8 cents on the week to US$ 4.00 per kg carcass weight.

Brazil exported 241.6 thousand tons of beef in April at an average price of US$5,030 /t, according to Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) data—a record volume for the month and at a rising average price. Shipments in January–April reached 828 thousand tons, 93 thousand tons more than in the same period of 2024 and an all time high for the span.

Brazil’s beef sales to the United States are soaring, and Mexico is becoming a key buyer. In April Brazil shipped 44,165 tons to the United States—outpacing Australia (37 thousand tons) for a second straight month despite the tariff gap between the two origins—and 10,978 tons to Mexico, taking total North American sales to 55 thousand tons. Canada received just 160 tons of frozen beef.

Between January and April Brazil shipped 23,819 tons of fresh beef to the European Union, up 47 % year on year, at an average price of US$8,082 /t (up 9 %). Growth is driven almost entirely by frozen products, up 69 % to 18,005 tons.

The average export value for beef kept its upward trajectory in the first days of May. According to Secex data, during the first six working days of the month Brazil shipped 67,165 tons shipment weight of beef at an average value of US$/t 5,103.

In the first quarter of 2025, 9.71 million head of cattle were slaughtered under some form of sanitary inspection service, informed the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistcs (Ibge).

During Minerva’s Q1 2025 results presentation, CFO Edison Ticle said the outlook for beef prices in the United States, China and the European Union is upward.

Minerva’s CFO Edison Ticle expressed optimism about the imminent reopening of Japan and South Korea to Brazilian fresh beef.

Minerva Foods posted a net profit of R$ 185 million (about US$ 33 million) in the first quarter of 2025, reversing the R$ 186.2 million losses recorded in the same period of 2024. Nevertheless, after the results were released, Minerva’s shares were among the biggest decliners on the Brazilian stock exchange. On the following day (Thursday), the stock closed down 7.69 %, at R$ 5.16.

Minerva’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) reached R$ 962.5 million, up 53.1 % from R$ 628.9 million a year earlier. The EBITDA margin was 8.6 %, versus 8.8 % in Q1 2024.

After the market closed on Wednesday 7 May, Minerva unveiled its 2025 net revenue guidance: R$ 50 billion–R$ 58 billion. In a material fact notice, the company stressed that the figures are internal management targets and should not be construed as a performance guarantee.

Slaughter cattle prices remained under downward pressure this week. Based on Scot consultancy references, the finished male price fell R$ 6 over the week in Brazil’s main cattle producing states to R$/@ 298.6, taking the three week decline to R$ 15.7 (5.0 %).

During the panel The industry responds, featuring meat packing executives Marcelo Secco (Marfrig), Eduardo Urgal (Pando San Jacinto) and Alberto González (Las Piedras), optimism prevailed. Urgal summed it up by saying the sector is “in a good moment, with positive expectations,” and added that the invitation is to be “more ambitious” to capitalize on those favorable prospects for the meat industry.

Uruguay has had, since last week, a Consulate General in Hong Kong that also holds jurisdiction over Macau. “Today is a special day for the ties between my country and Hong Kong, in the context of the comprehensive strategic alliance that binds Uruguay and China,” Foreign Minister Mario Lubetkin said as he opened the new Consulate General of Uruguay in Hong Kong, whose remit includes the Macao Special Administrative Region, located some 70 km south west of Hong Kong next to China’s Guangdong province.

The factors driving the slaughter cattle market have not changed, so conditions are the same as last week: strong demand across all categories and moderately higher prices.

Cattle slaughter in the week ended May 10 totaled 57,717 head, 9,000 more than the previous week and the highest since the second week of November 2023, 18 months ago.

As is typical at this time of year, slaughter sheep are scarce. Prices are steady at last week’s levels: US$ 4.30 4.35 per kg for lambs and US$ 3.50 3.60 per kg for adult carcasses up to 24 kg.

From yesterday through 22 May, a public private Argentine delegation will tour Southeast Asian countries, chiefly to open new markets for Argentine beef and expand existing ones.

Export cattle values rose by Ar$ 100–200 per kilo carcass weight. The best British breed steers moved up to Ar$ 5,000–5,150, while steers with Zebu influence advanced to Ar$ 4,800–5,000 per kilo.

Slaughter cattle prices held firm this week. Packers’ list prices are US$ 4.10 per kg carcass weight for regular steers and US$ 3.90 for cows, yet several deals were struck above those marks. One intermediary said big lots of heavy carcasses reached as high as US$ 4.20 per kg for regular males.

Beef prices in the United States are climbing to record levels as the national cattle inventory sinks to its lowest point in more than 70 years, adding further pressure on retail prices for consumers. According to the Financial Times, the average price of a pound of ground beef reached US$ 12.77 in U.S. cities in March, up 12.8 percent year on year and the highest figure on record, Department of Labor data show. Raw steak prices also set a record, averaging US$ 24.21 per kilogram.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins announced Monday the suspension of live cattle, horse, and bison imports through U.S. ports of entry along the southern border due to the continued and rapid northward spread of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico, effective immediately. NWS has been recently detected in remote farms with minimal cattle movement as far north as Oaxaca and Veracruz, about 700 miles away from the U.S. border.

Argentina has begun confidential negotiations with the United States aimed at easing the reciprocal tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, Infobae reported. The Foreign Ministry has dispatched an official delegation to Washington led by career diplomat Carlos María Kreckler, an adviser to Gerardo Werthein on foreign trade matters.

Fed cattle trading this past week occurred early in the south where packers were able to purchase cattle at steady to US$/cwt 2 higher prices. Sales in Texas and Kansas were mainly US$/cwt 218-220.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices were slightly to moderately lower. Trading remained slow.

The United States and the United Kingdom have announced a trade agreement—the first signed with the Trump administration after the wave of tariffs on foreign goods earlier this April. “We’re drafting the final details,” U.S. president Donald Trump told reporters, according to Euronews. “We’ll have everything signed in the coming weeks.”

A 2023 UN report concluded that the most effective strategies for cutting livestock emissions are improving productivity, genetics and animal health; dietary change is almost irrelevant. Nevertheless, after its presentation at COP28, the media focused solely on the need to eat fewer animal products.

“The media announced that the report told the world we need to change what we eat and consume less food of animal origin,” U.S. livestock and air quality expert Dr Frank Mitloehner told in the World Angus Forum in Brisbane, Australia.

Cattle export volumes from Australia in April surged to the highest monthly total of the year to date, but notably no shipments were sent to the second largest market of Vietnam during the month. Australia exported 81,780 in April, the highest monthly total since December when 91,013 cattle shipped, Beef Central said. The April total is 23 percent above the five-year rolling average for the month.

Last month, Australian beef exports reached a new April record as grainfed exports reached a record. Grainfed exports rose 27% YoY to 37,037 tons – the largest monthly volume figure on record, MLA said. Grainfed supply has been steadily building over decades, with numbers on feed routinely breaking records and turn-off continuing to rise over time. This has been reflected in export volumes, which have steadily risen as the sector has grown.

It is estimated that slightly under 200,000 tons of beef were shipped to China in April—a volume similar to that of the first three months of the year and well below the 250,000 ton monthly average of the last quarter of 2024.

After three consecutive months of increases, the volume of imported beef held in Chinese cold stores has resumed the contraction seen during the second half of 2024.

OIG+X reports that the average wholesale beef price has risen above US$ 8.50/kg in April, after hovering around US$ 8 in February and March. As shown in the accompanying chart, wholesale beef prices have now moved above lamb prices, reversing the pattern seen in the first quarter of 2025 when beef traded lower.