It was another weak week for trade with China. The gap between what buyers and sellers expect remained or even widened due to rising cattle prices in Mercosur.

After a sharp climb in recent weeks, prices for Hilton rump & loin cuts rose again, although some say a ceiling is starting to appear. “Europe is at its top values and already buying more selectively,” said a Uruguayan exporter.

A Uruguayan exporter said that although US demand for beef is “more active” than in previous weeks, the market appears “more selective when it comes to prices.” The source reported references of US$/t 5,600–5,800 FOB for 90 CL outside quota.

Countries in the MENA region continue to show interest in closing deals for sheepmeat from Uruguay. An intermediary reported sales last week of lamb carcasses at US$/t 6,000 CFR and six-cut mutton at US$/t 5,200.

Last week Russia placed bids to close offal deals from Uruguay, although one exporter said he had not accepted buyers’ proposed values.

With firm cattle prices in Paraguay and good trade prospects with the US and Canada, the industry is targeting US$/t 7,400–7,500 to close new sales toward its natural market (Chile) for the 19 cuts. This has widened the gap with Brazilian product, where deals have already been made at US$/t 6,100–6,200, but with intentions of stepping up to US$/t 6,300–6,400, according to an importer.

The average value of slaughter cattle in the region resumed its upward path this week, after a pause the previous one. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index rose 3 cents to US$ 4.12 per kilo carcass weight, the highest since June 2022.

In the first two weeks of September, Brazil exported 137,275 tons of beef, slightly below the 139,385 tons shipped in the same period of 2024. The Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) reported that exports moved at a daily pace of 13,728 tons with an average value of US$ 5,617 per ton.

In the second quarter of 2025, 10.46 million cattle were slaughtered, representing an increase of 3.9% compared to the second quarter of 2024 and a rise of 5.5% against the immediately preceding quarter, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) when releasing disaggregated production data of the main animal proteins in the second quarter of the year.

A lower weight of slaughtered carcasses, determined by the higher relative share of females and young animals, meant that the growth in meat production was lower than that of the number of animals slaughtered.

In the 12 months to June 2025, Brazil exported 35.9% of total meat production, a record proportion that surpasses the previous maximum of 35.7% reached in 2022, thanks to historically high prices in the international market at that time.

The slaughter of 15.01 million hogs grew 2.6% compared to the same period of the previous year and 4.1% against the first quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, the slaughter of 1.64 billion chickens represented an increase of 1.1% compared to the same period of 2024 and a 0.4% decline against the first quarter of 2025.

The slaughter of 18.44 million more chickens in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period of the previous year was due to increases in 19 of the 26 states. Compared to the first quarter, there was a 0.4% drop.

The reversion of the cattle cycle during the second half of 2025 will reduce beef availability next year, leading to a drop in exports that the USDA office in Brasilia estimates at 300,000 tons.

The USDA office in Brasilia forecasts Brazilian cattle slaughter at 45 million head in 2026, compared to 47 million estimated for 2025. The drop is attributed to the expected start of the cattle cycle reversion in the second half of 2025 and producers beginning to retain cows for breeding. According to the Brazilian Beef Industries Association (ABIEC), 65 percent of all production in 2024 originated in federally inspected slaughterhouses, that are the exporting facilities.

Vietnam received last week the first shipment of Brazilian beef: 27 tons of the patinho cut (eye round). The operation marks the effective start of exports, following the market opening announced in March by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

“I don’t think anything has changed for us,” said JBS global CEO Gilberto Tomazoni regarding the merger between BRF and Marfrig, which will give rise to the company MBRF. The executive pointed out that BRF already competed with JBS through Seara and Marfrig through Friboi.

JBS global CEO Gilberto Tomazoni warned that Brazil cannot rely solely on the Chinese market for its animal protein exports. The statement was made at the Agro Summit, organized by Bradesco BBI.

Slaughter cattle prices fell moderately this week, pressured by an increase in supply. The average price of the finished male in the main exporting states dropped R$/@ 2 to R$ 296.4, based on state quotations reported by consultancy Scot, net of the Funrural tax and with a 30-day payment term.

The livestock declaration data confirm what had been anticipated: there was moderate growth in the total number of cattle, with a record in the number of calves, and a minimum in sheep, which fell below 5 million head for the first time since records began.

The 4.26 million cows in the breeding herd last year produced 3.039 million calves. The weaning rate was 71.3%, the highest proportion on record. Although the breeding segment is the one that finds it hardest to improve its indicators, it is gradually doing so.

As for sheep, the flock fell to 4.752 million head, an annual drop of 616,000 (11.5%), falling below 5 million for the first time since records began.

The USDA office in Buenos Aires projects Uruguay’s beef exports in 2026 at 520,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE), the second highest volume on record, only behind the 2021 peak. It also revised upward the export estimate for 2025 from 485,000 to 506,000 tons because of expectations for higher slaughter and production.

USDA Buenos Aires forecasts beef imports in 2026 at 68,000 tons CWE, a record high. Attractive FOB prices are encouraging exporters to ship as much beef as possible, opening the door for lower-priced beef from neighboring countries to serve a slowly growing domestic market. Nearly 90 percent of beef imports are boneless chilled cuts. Brazil is by far Uruguay’s top supplier, followed by Paraguay and, a distant third, Argentina.

Cattle exports in 2026 are projected at 380,000 head, somewhat lower than the higher-than-usual exports expected in 2025, projected at 400,000 head.

The Minister of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries, Alfredo Fratti, welcomed this Saturday a recent agreement with China that will allow Uruguay to process bovine gallstones from its own cattle as well as from Argentina and Brazil, for export to the Asian country as an input for its traditional medicine.

Fernando Galletti de Queiroz, CEO of Minerva Foods, stated that the contract with Marfrig “remains in force” and that Uruguay occupies a key place in the company’s regional expansion strategy.

Sustainable cattle ranching: the strategic value of breeding in Uruguay was the second conference organized by the National Meat Institute within the framework of Expo Prado.

The latest Type Steer report, released by the National Meat Institute (INAC), indicated that the value generated by the sale of all products after industrial processing posted a monthly increase of 3.6% in August. The indicator stood at US$ 1,787 per head, reaching its highest level since August 2022, when it was US$ 1,813.

Market conditions for slaughter cattle remain unchanged, with a minimal supply of grassfed animals and very strong demand. Prices continue to rise and are now very close to the highs of the first half of May 2022, when special grassfed steers reached US$ 5.60 per kilo.

Cattle slaughter dropped moderately by 2% from the previous week, remaining in the range of 41–42 thousand head per week. INAC reported that in the week ending September 13, a total of 41,962 cattle entered plants, 962 fewer than in the prior 7 days and 7% more than in the same week last year, when the figure was below 40 thousand.

The sheepmeat market remains on an upward trend, with supply still at a minimum. In general, deals are closed at prices set with a premium over the Consignors Association’s reference for the week of shipment, which means that week after week business is being done at higher prices. Lambs are paid at US$ 5.30 or a few cents more, while mutton quote around US$ 4.40.

The government announced a significant change in the national foot-and-mouth disease vaccination plan. Beginning with the second campaign of 2026, heifers and steers will no longer be vaccinated, as they are considered to have sufficient immunity. The change in the scheme will result in about 14 million fewer doses being applied, representing savings of approximately US$ 22 million for producers, according to the official estimate.

For livestock consignor Carlos José Colombo, cattle ranching is once again consolidating as a productive business, with incentives to produce heavier animals and exporters gaining prominence in the market, according to an interview published in the specialized report Informe Ganadero.

Prices for export cattle continued to strengthen. The best-quality export steers, crossbred with British breeds, are trading in the range of Ar$ 6,000–6,100 per kilo carcass weight, while Zebu cross steers are around Ar$ 5,900–6,000, with a floor about Ar$ 100 higher than the previous week.

Paraguayan beef exports in 2026 are forecast at 490,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (cwe), down six percent due to smaller slaughter and lower beef output, said the USDA office in Buenos Aires. Chile is expected to remain the leading destination, though shipments are projected to decline, while demand from the United States, Taiwan, and Israel is anticipated to remain strong.

During Expo Prado, Minerva Foods’ global president, Fernando Galletti de Queiroz, was categorical in an interview with Valor Agro when referring to the discussion on the future of foot-and-mouth disease vaccination, a debate currently taking place in Paraguay and other countries in the region, where Brazil has advanced by changing its status.

The National Animal Health and Quality Service (Senacsa) confirmed the official approval of the Philippines for the import of Paraguayan meat in three categories: beef, pork, and poultry. The notification was sent by the health authorities of the Asian country, consolidating a new step in the expansion of markets for national production.

Cattle prices in Paraguay remained firm at the highest levels so far this year, with list references for common steers and heifers at US$ 4.55 per kg carcass weight and US$ 4.20 for fat cows.

USA Brazilian beef imports for the week ending September 6 (not official) were at 1,262 MT, according to the USDA, with the last four weeks averaging around 2,500 MT per week, informed the Daily Livestock Report (DLR).

US consumer sentiment fell for a second straight month in September as consumers saw rising risks to business conditions, the labor market and inflation.

Fed supplies will remain tight as packers struggle to hold on to recent positive margins. This means a slaughter volume near this past week’s number without further declines in the box prices, The AG Center said.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices were mostly sharply higher.

The British public's expectation for inflation in around five years' time rose in August to its highest since May 2019 at 3.8%, according to a Bank of England survey on Friday, which may unsettle some policymakers ahead of next week's rate decision.

Sheep and beef farm profits in New Zealand are forecast to transform from among the lowest in 40 years to two of the best years, informed Farmers Weekly.

The trend of stockpiling imported beef in cold storage in China persisted during August.

Wholesale beef prices in the Chinese market maintained a gradual recovery trend in August. According to data provided by OIG+X, based on information from MARA, the average price of beef in China rose to around US$ 9 per kilo in August, after hitting a low of about US$ 8 in February.

China’s economic activity slowed more than expected across the board in August, adding to the likelihood that policymakers will roll out more stimulus to hit the official growth goal, informed Bloomberg.