The export market from South America to China remains firm, although trading activity is somewhat limited and there are signs of easing demand for Brazilian product, possibly linked to the rapid pace at which this year’s 1.1 million-ton quota is being filled (see Asia).

Prices for rump & loin Hilton cuts declined for the second consecutive week after reaching record nominal highs earlier this month.

The conflict in the Middle East continues to generate major logistical distortions, directly impacting beef exports to the region. According to a regional trader, the main issues involve containers already in transit to destinations such as the UAE, Oman and Qatar. “We still have problems with cargoes in transit; shipping lines are not helping at all,” he said.

An importer based in Florida described a US market with firm prices but increasing difficulty in generating volume. “Prices are firm, but it’s hard to build volume,” he told WBR. The main issue is the high replacement cost. “When you go to restock, prices are very high,” he explained.

The Chilean market is showing signs of increased strain, amid rising domestic costs and reduced ability to absorb higher import prices. According to an importer, “93-octane fuel prices have surged,” directly affecting consumption. “The market is very tight to absorb these new price levels,” he said.

Finished cattle prices fell for the second consecutive week in all four Mercosur countries. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index dropped 6 cents over the week to US$ 4.72/kg carcass weight. Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, the index has declined by 13 cents, or 2.7%.

Brazil’s beef export pace has eased in recent weeks. From a peak of over 18,000 tons per working day in the third week of February, shipments declined to 10,277 tons in the third week of March, according to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex).

Brazil recorded the slaughter of 42.94 million cattle under some form of sanitary inspection in 2025, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year, according to IBGE data. Growth was observed in all quarters compared to 2024.

IBGE data released last week show that Brazil slaughtered 13.5 million cows and 6.5 million heifers in 2025, both record levels, with increases of 15.8% and 23.5% respectively compared to 2024. In absolute terms, female slaughter rose by 3 million head, including 1.8 million cows and 1.2 million heifers.

Marfrig (MBRF) posted a 4Q25 with moderate revenue growth but margin pressure, reflecting the current cattle cycle, particularly in the United States. In the quarter, the company reported revenues of R$ 43.9 billion (+4.8% year-on-year), while full-year 2025 revenues reached R$ 163.9 billion (+11.9%).

BB Investimentos downgraded MBRF shares from buy to neutral following the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, which were considered weak due to deteriorating operating profitability and rising debt levels.

Minerva posted record results in 4Q25 and full-year 2025, exceeding its own expectations, according to the company. In the quarter, revenues reached R$ 14.2 billion (+32.6% yoy) and EBITDA totaled R$ 1.2 billion (+24.1%), while full-year revenues amounted to R$ 54.8 billion and EBITDA to R$ 4.8 billion, both all-time highs.

Minerva Foods (BEEF3) shares fell 10.7% on Thursday, closing at R$ 3.84, after the company reported net income of R$ 85 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. Following the results, BB Investimentos downgraded its recommendation from buy to neutral, maintaining a target price of R$ 8 by the end of 2026.

Despite being in the second half of the month —a period typically marked by softer domestic beef demand— cattle prices in Brazil moved higher, supported by limited supply. Favorable pasture conditions continue to give producers greater control over marketings.

Uruguay’s cattle herd has shown little variation over the past two decades, averaging around 11.6 million head. By the end of the 2025/26 season, it is expected to post a moderate increase of just over 100 thousand head, returning to around that long-term average.

Uruguay’s economy grew by 1.8% in 2025, according to the Central Bank’s National Accounts report, although it ended the year virtually stagnant: GDP rose just 0.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.

Conditions in the finished cattle market remain largely unchanged from the previous week. Despite extremely limited supply —further tightened by recent favorable rainfall— demand is positioned below the market and is exerting strong downward pressure on purchase prices.

Cattle slaughter remained virtually unchanged last week, with an increase in cow numbers offset by a decline in heifer processing.

Tight supply continues to support higher prices for sheep ready for slaughter. Despite partial activity—particularly following the departure of the kosher team that had been working with the species—buyers must pay higher prices to secure the very limited available supply.

China suspended beef imports from plant No. 2082, owned by Arre Beef SA, according to a statement from the GACC. The suspension has been in effect since Thursday, February 19.

Fresh and frozen beef exports in February totaled 48,960 tons (product weight), worth US$ 310.3 million, according to data from Indec. Compared to the previous month, this represents a decline of 8.0% in volume and 8.4% in value. Year-on-year, volume fell by 6.5%, while value increased by 20.4%.

Following record volumes and prices in shipments to the United States in January —for both chilled and frozen beef— February saw a sharp month-on-month decline. Exports totaled 837 tons of chilled cuts and 3,410 tons of frozen beef, representing drops of around 30% and 50%, respectively, from the previous month.

Beef exports to China, Argentina’s main destination, posted a modest recovery in February compared to the previous month. Shipments totaled 19,939 tons of frozen boneless beef (US$ 111 million), up 14% month-on-month, but still far below the volumes seen between 2022 and 2024 —when monthly averages ranged between 30,000 and 33,000 tons— and even those recorded from June to November 2025.

Despite regaining second place among Argentina’s export destinations, shipments to Israel declined both month-on-month and year-on-year in February. Exports totaled 1,583 tons of chilled beef and 1,996 tons of frozen beef, representing respective declines of 41% and 19% from January 2026, and 18% and 7% from February 2025.

Exports of chilled beef to Europe reached 3,860 tons in February, nearly 5% higher than the previous month but 16% below February 2025. The average value eased to US$ 13,521/t from the January peak of US$ 14,200/t —the highest level in at least eight years— bringing total export value to US$ 52 million.

Export steer prices continued to trend downward, driven by exporters’ resistance to higher bids, the end of kosher slaughter activity, and softer European demand. By last Friday (the last business day before publication), British-breed cross steers—of higher meat quality—had fallen another Ar$ 100–200 to a range of Ar$ 8,000–8,200/kg carcass weight, while zebu-cross steers declined to Ar$ 7,900–8,000/kg.

The meat industry continues to push for lower purchase prices for finished cattle at the start of the week. However, recent rainfall and limited supply in some regions are allowing higher prices to be secured to fill slaughter schedules.

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.5 million head on March 1, 2026, informed the USDA in tis Cattle on Feed report. The inventory was slightly below March 1, 2025.

According to SENASICA, New World Screwworm (NWSW) cases in Mexico continue to increase, reaching 1,139 active cases during the week. This represents an increase of approximately 54% month-on-month. The livestock sector remains the most affected, with 662 active bovine cases, up around 50% from 442 in the previous month.

Last week’s lower-than-expected slaughter volume is likely to pave the way for higher plant utilization in the coming weeks. Packers managed to hold live cattle prices steady while pushing boxed beef values higher, resulting in the strongest margins for beef plants in the past couple of years, according to The AG Center.

Compared to the prior market test, US beef import prices were mostly moderately higher.

The slaughter cattle market in Turkey continues to operate at exceptionally high levels in international terms. Based on prices for beef-breed calves with 35-day payment terms, values are around US$ 13–14/kg carcass weight for young animals.

The Greek Directorate General of Animal Health confirmed an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease on a cattle farm on the island of Lesbos, detected on March 15, 2026. This is the first case in the country since 2000–2001.

Pig slaughter in the European Union increased for the second consecutive year in 2025. According to Eurostat data, 227.2 million animals were slaughtered, up 2.3% year-on-year. Despite the increase, activity levels remain below those recorded in previous years.

Australia’s sheep sector is entering a phase of adjustment after recent highs, although fundamentals remain stronger than in beef.

Australia’s beef sector faces an unusual scenario for 2026/27: declining production alongside downward pressure on cattle prices.

The Free Trade Agreement signed between Australia and the European Union has triggered a strong negative reaction from Australia’s red meat sector, which considers it insufficient in terms of market access, according to Beef Central.

In the first two months of 2026, China imported around 628 thousand tons of beef worth US$ 3.529 billion, according to data released by China Customs on Wednesday.

Brazilian beef entering China in the first two months of 2026 accounted for 59% of total imports of the product. Much of this volume had remained at ports at the end of last year due to slow clearance processes in the final weeks of 2025.

Guest columnist Víctor Tonelli

The year 2025 could be remembered as the beginning of a NEW ERA IN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION, in which demand grew well above supply which, despite efforts to expand by nearly 1 million tons, failed to keep pace. As a result, beef prices increased by 15% globally, with slaughter cattle reaching record levels, particularly in Uruguay and Argentina, where prices rose by more than 30% in dollar terms.