Minerva Foods (BEEF3) shares fell 10.7% on Thursday, closing at R$ 3.84, after the company reported net income of R$ 85 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. Following the results, BB Investimentos downgraded its recommendation from buy to neutral, maintaining a target price of R$ 8 by the end of 2026.
According to the bank, the decision reflects increased risks to the investment thesis, particularly China’s safeguard measures on Brazilian beef and recent geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, which could affect export logistics to the Middle East.
Despite this, the company posted relatively solid operational results, with the integration of new assets helping sustain EBITDA margins, even as gross margins came under pressure. However, the quarterly comparison was affected by stronger US sales in the third quarter of 2025.
XP Investimentos described the results as a negative surprise, particularly due to weakness in Brazil, where beef volumes fell 8% quarter-on-quarter. Revenue reached R$ 14.2 billion, about 5% below expectations, while adjusted EBITDA came in 9% below estimates, impacted by higher commercial expenses and lower cost dilution.
Cash flow also raised concerns, with an outflow of around R$ 500 million (or up to R$ 750 million including export financing operations), pushing leverage to 2.6x EBITDA (3.5x including forfaits). Analysts expect high cattle costs, weaker domestic demand and uncertainty in export markets to continue weighing on performance in the short term.
