Uruguay’s economy grew by 1.8% in 2025, according to the Central Bank’s National Accounts report, although it ended the year virtually stagnant: GDP rose just 0.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.
On an annual average basis, agriculture, fishing and mining expanded 2.3%, contributing 0.2 percentage points to GDP, in a year also marked by strong performance in manufacturing (6.2%) and financial services (4.2%).
However, the picture shifted markedly toward the end of the year. In the fourth quarter, agriculture posted a 7.7% year-on-year contraction, with a negative contribution of 0.7 percentage points to overall GDP.
On the demand side, exports of goods and services fell 1.9% year-on-year in the final quarter, while imports rose 5.1%, resulting in a reduced contribution from the external sector to overall activity.
The macroeconomic outlook for the second year of Yamandú Orsi’s administration also appears challenging in terms of growth. Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank expect the economy to expand by 1.6% in 2026, compared to the Ministry of Economy’s 2.2% projection in the national budget.
Economy Minister Gabriel Oddone warned last week that if activity comes in below expectations, an official downward revision to the 2026 growth forecast is likely. He also noted that weaker momentum could lead the government to consider fiscal measures to meet its targets, including postponing some spending commitments while seeking to protect social programs.
