Trading with the Chinese market confirmed its dynamism for the second consecutive week following the Lunar New Year celebrations and holidays. Beyond specific price levels, the key feature of the market is the speed of execution. “Everything closes immediately,” a trader told World Beef Report (WBR).

Amid prolonged tight supply from Argentina and Uruguay, prices for Hilton rump & loin cuts maintained their firm trajectory last week, reaching new records. In Argentina, sources reported deals in a range of US$/t 20,800–21,000 FOB under the Hilton quota, with Angus and premium brands achieving slightly higher levels. Some Argentine exporters were reportedly placing bids this week at US$ 21,500 and even US$ 22,000 for new business.

A regional trader described the U.S. market as “firm,” though signs of “greater South American supply” are beginning to weigh on some cuts.

According to an intermediary, significant volumes of South American beef — especially Brazilian — are currently circulating in the U.S., already cleared and including payment terms. Minerva and JBS are offering product imported at the end of 2025 or early 2026 at competitive values. “When you have Brazilian topside already nationalized, with terms and cheaper, there’s no reason to pay US$/t 200 or 300 more just because it says Argentina,” the trader explained.

The U.S. market is also factoring in the possibility that Brazil may face export limitations to China once its quota — estimated for July/August — is reached, potentially redirecting volume to the U.S. The trader does not share alarmist views of a “flood” of beef, estimating Brazil could increase a few thousand tons per month, but not dramatically alter the balance. Still, the mere possibility acts as a “psychological ceiling” for prices.

A regional trader described a scenario of high operational tension, with logistical delays and containers not moving normally toward MENA countries following the outbreak of war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran. “We are in the middle of the war situation with containers. It’s very complicated,” he said.

Sources in the import-export market agree that Chile continues to show steady demand, with deals closing in a range of US$/t 7,200 to 7,500 CIF for the 20-cut set from Paraguay.

After reaching a historical high last week, the World Beef Report (WBR) Mercosur Steer Index fell 4 cents to close at US$/kg 4.81. The pullback was mainly driven by the appreciation of the US dollar at both regional and global levels following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

Finished male cattle prices remain firm in the Brazilian market at the end of February. The CEPEA/ESALQ Indicator for the state of São Paulo traded above R$/@ 330 for virtually the entire month and accumulated a 7.1% increase through February 24.

The international beef trade continues to be marked by strong supply scarcity, amid herd reductions in major supplier countries. In this scenario, beyond record beef exports, demand for live cattle for finishing and slaughter is also rising strongly in markets that, for religious or structural reasons, prefer importing live animals.

Minerva shares fell sharply last week after XP (investment management platform) downgraded its recommendation from buy to neutral. On Tuesday, shares dropped more than 6% and closed near R$ 5.39, while on Friday they ended at R$ 5.22, accumulating a weekly loss of 9.5%. The bank also cut its 2026 target price from R$ 8.4 to R$ 7.2 per share.

Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA) denied that China has imposed a restriction until 2028 on approving new Brazilian plants to export beef. The Secretary of Trade and International Relations, Luis Rua, stated that there is no official communication from Beijing in that regard and that negotiations continue in parallel with the import quota established by the Chinese government.

Cattle prices for slaughter in Brazil rose for the fifth consecutive week in local currency, although dollar-denominated values were affected this week by the significant appreciation of the US currency in the region.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of airspace in the Middle East have disrupted red meat export operations to countries in the region. Uruguay primarily ships sheepmeat there, while in the case of beef, exports are largely concentrated in Israel.

Following the ratification and enactment by Uruguay and Argentina of the law enabling the provisional entry into force of the EU–Mercosur free trade agreement, both countries will not only stop paying the 20% tariff under the Hilton quota from May, but will also be able to begin shipments under the new 99,000-ton beef quota with preferential access.

The Executive Branch enacted Law 20,462, approving the interim trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. Foreign Minister Mario Lubetkin stated that as of May, certain products could begin entering duty-free, including chilled beef under the Hilton quota, wood, specific oils and wool, according to the Presidency.

The average export value of beef surpassed the record levels reached in 2022 because of higher selling prices to key destinations and a greater relative share of chilled shipments.

Uruguayan beef exports to China increased in February and reached the highest shipped volume since last October, supported by improved selling prices from early this year, when Beijing announced safeguard measures that limited the export potential of Brazil and Australia.

Beef volumes exported by Uruguay to European Union (EU) countries fell significantly in the first two months of the year, especially in the case of frozen beef.

Export requests reported by Customs show February shipments of 3,568 tons, of which 2,817 tons were chilled and 751 tons frozen.

In the first two months of 2026, Uruguayan live cattle exports recorded a moderate year-on-year decline and expectations are for the drop to deepen in the coming months, mainly in the case of shipments to Turkey, the main destination.

Average carcass weights in Uruguay continue the growth trend that has prevailed over the past decade, both for steers and for cows and heifers.

Uruguay’s leading beef slaughter group (MBRF) decided to grant leave at another plant starting March 1. The facility involved is Inaler.

Following another meeting at the Ministry of Labor between company representatives and workers, there were no decisions regarding the reopening, closure or restructuring of one of Minerva Foods’ four plants in Uruguay. Workers at Frigorífico Carrasco remain on unemployment insurance.

Operators consulted by World Beef Report (WBR) described the fed cattle market as entering a phase of “strong tension” or “transition,” with processors attempting to push prices lower while supply remains very tight. Last week, special steers were trading around US$/kg 5.75, and although lower bids began circulating late in the week, most early-week deals were still closing at similar levels. Slaughter bookings remain short, generally under one week.

Cattle slaughter rose moderately last week. INAC reported that in the week to February 28, 41,963 head were processed, just over 1,000 more than the previous week, but 1,700 fewer year-on-year.

Sheep slaughter increased for the second consecutive week. A total of 15,259 sheep were processed in the week to February 28, 2,413 more than the previous week; the increase was driven by lambs, which rose from 3,296 head to 9,074, accounting for 60% of total slaughter.

A regional trader told World Beef Report (WBR) that Argentina’s industry is “extremely excited” following a “verbal agreement” that would allow the export of cuts — not only blocks and trimmings — under the new 80,000-ton U.S. quota.

After several years of negotiations, the Japanese government has taken a key step toward allowing imports of Argentine beef from regions recognized as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) free with vaccination. Japan has approved the technical report confirming that Argentina meets all sanitary requirements for access.

Export cattle prices in Argentina continued to rise. Top-quality export steers, mainly British-cross types, increased by Ar$ 50–100 to around Ar$/kg 8,200–8,400 carcass weight. Zebu-cross steers advanced to Ar$/kg 8,200–8,300 carcass.

The Paraguayan Meat Chamber stated that the recent evolution of the cattle market confirms the existence of a “robust” price transmission mechanism from the international market to producers and final consumers, implicitly rejecting claims of distortions or competition failures in the meat chain.

Paraguay’s meat industry is keeping its list prices for cattle unchanged from the previous week, although some transactions have been closed at higher values. For standard steers, the reference price stands at US$ 4.65 per kilo, while cows are quoted at US$ 4.45 per kilo.

December US beef and by-product exports totaled 98,595 tons, down 10.5% year-on-year but the highest monthly volume since April. Export value reached US$ 809.2 million, 10% lower than a year ago, yet also the strongest result since April.

Boneless beef cold storage stocks totaled 39.45 million lbs in January, according to the latest report from the US Department of Agriculture. The figure was nearly unchanged from December, breaking from the recent seasonal pattern in which January inventories typically exceed the prior month.

The prolonged closure of the United States border to Mexican live cattle exports due to the presence of New World Screwworm (NWS) is generating a structural shift in Mexico’s cattle sector, according to the latest USDA semi-annual report for Mexico.

Two consecutive days of sharply lower futures allowed packers to push cash cattle prices down. In the north, live sales dropped to as low as US$/cwt 240, with weekly trade ranging from US$/cwt 240–245, US$/cwt 4–8 lower. Dressed sales were mostly at US$/cwt 383–384, down US$/cwt 5. In the south, most transactions were reported at US$/cwt 244, also US$/cwt 5 lower, according to The AG Center.

Compared to the last market test, imported beef prices in the US were moderately to sharply higher. Trading remained slow overall, although there was increased activity in forward sales for April–May delivery.

The Directorate-General for Health and Food Safety of the European Commission (DG SANTE) published its second audit report on beef originating from Brazil, once again identifying deficiencies in Brazil’s control systems. The main focus of the report is ensuring that animals treated with estradiol 17β — a hormone banned in the European Union — do not enter the EU market.

After 25 years of negotiations, Uruguay and Argentina completed parliamentary approval of the trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. The pact creates one of the largest free trade areas in the world, with more than 720 million consumers.

The military escalation in the Middle East has begun to directly impact beef and sheepmeat exports from Australia and New Zealand, following the suspension of shipping services through the Strait of Hormuz and the closure of airspace in several Gulf countries.

ABS data for Q4 2025 confirmed a historically large year for Australia’s cattle sector. Total cattle slaughter reached 9.28 million head in 2025, with beef production totaling 2.8 million tons.

Australia appears on track to trigger South Korea’s beef safeguard earlier than usual in 2026, with less than two months of trade completed. By February 20, 45.6% of Australia’s annual quota of 196,050 tons had already been utilized, leaving roughly 106,000 tons available for the remainder of the year.

The USDA office in New Delhi projects that India’s beef and, primarily, buffalo meat (carabeef) exports will reach 1.7 million tons (carcass weight equivalent) in 2026, slightly above 2025 levels, when shipments are estimated to have climbed to 1.69 million tons, more than 10% higher than the previous year. It would be the bulkiest export volume since 2017.

Claudio Corso, director of Albasoft, explains how the company develops 100% Uruguayan software to manage operations from live cattle intake to export of the finished product.