Minerva shares fell sharply last week after XP (investment management platform) downgraded its recommendation from buy to neutral. On Tuesday, shares dropped more than 6% and closed near R$ 5.39, while on Friday they ended at R$ 5.22, accumulating a weekly loss of 9.5%. The bank also cut its 2026 target price from R$ 8.4 to R$ 7.2 per share.
Among the factors pressuring the stock are the safeguards imposed by China, which established a quota of 1.1 million tons with a 12% tariff and an additional 55% duty on volumes exceeding the quota. In addition, according to official statements, no new plant approvals were expected until 2028 (information later denied by the government). Analysts point out that this outlook particularly impacts Minerva due to its strong exposure to beef and the Chinese market.
XP also reduced its EBITDA estimates for 2026 and 2027 by 7% and 6%, respectively. Although it maintains a positive view on global demand amid supply scarcity, it warns of greater short-term risks, including a possible shift in the cattle cycle, uncertainty regarding the magnitude of finished male price increases, and weaker domestic consumption in Brazil.
In the third quarter of 2025, 17% of Minerva’s gross revenue came from China, and 67.8% of its revenue originated from exports from Brazil. Unlike JBS and MBRF, which have greater geographic and protein diversification, Minerva has more concentrated exposure. Market analysts even observe investor rotation toward other companies in the sector. For the fourth quarter of 2025, XP projects weak results, with estimated net income of R$ 188 million and adjusted EBITDA of R$ 1.216 billion.
Source: Globo Rural.
