The military escalation in the Middle East has begun to directly impact beef and sheepmeat exports from Australia and New Zealand, following the suspension of shipping services through the Strait of Hormuz and the closure of airspace in several Gulf countries.
In Australia’s case, according to BeefCentral, the Middle East accounts for around 10% of its sheepmeat exports and between 3% and 4% of beef exports. The disruption particularly affects chilled products, such as lamb carcasses and grainfed beef shipped by air, whose short shelf life heightens commercial risk if disruptions extend beyond one or two weeks. Should the conflict drag on, exporters would need to redirect premium cuts — from tenderloins and loin cuts to brisket and bolar blade — to alternative markets, putting pressure on international prices.
New Zealand is facing an even more immediate logistical impact. According to Farmers Weekly, all shipping lines have suspended services through Hormuz, the route through which virtually all of its exports to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council, comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) are transported. In 2025, this trade was valued at US$ 298 million, of which US$ 166 million corresponded to chilled products, the most vulnerable to delays. Around 4,000 TEU are currently in transit along this route.
While shipments to the United Kingdom and Europe do not depend on Hormuz, persistent insecurity in the Red Sea continues to force vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding up to two weeks of sailing time, higher fuel costs and increased insurance premiums.
Beyond the immediate trade disruption, rising oil prices — with 20% of global supply passing through Hormuz — and risks to fertiliser flows introduce additional pressure on production costs. If the conflict is resolved within weeks, the impact would likely be temporary; if prolonged, it could lead to structural trade diversion and greater strain on export supply chains in both countries.
