China’s General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) rejected Brazil’s request not to count volumes that were in transit or already at destination ports before January 1 within the 2026 quota. The decision has the potential to significantly influence prices and trade flows in the beef market this year.

A trader who attended Gulfood in Dubai (which closed last Friday) highlighted the event’s dynamism and broad international presence. “Lots of Chinese importers and people from everywhere. Everything is getting active again,” he told WBR. While the overall outlook for the year is positive, he warned that “all prices are at—or close to—their ceiling.”

A clear regional trend is the appreciation of local currencies against the US dollar. In Brazil, the real is trading at its strongest level since May 2024, with the dollar depreciating 3.2% against the real over the past month.

An operator working with US clients said that while activity has slowed somewhat in recent days, prices have not fallen—rather, there has been a deceleration in trading, driven by temporary factors. “With Australia the market is fairly quiet because of the exchange rate.

Prices for rump & loin Hilton cuts from Argentina firmed again last week. One exporter cited deals at up to US$/t 20,000 FOB, while other market sources quoted US$ 19,200–19,500 FOB. For rib eye, values around US$/t 20,500 FOB were mentioned.

At Gulfood, strong interest from Gulf countries in sheepmeat was also evident, amid limited supply from plants operating in this protein. A Paraguayan industrial source reported deals for mutton carcasses at US$/t 5,400 CFR.

The Chilean market remains stable, with limited activity and firm prices. According to Paraguayan exporters consulted, the few deals closed in recent days were around US$/t 7,250 CFR for 20-cut sets, with no transactions below that level.

In the few weeks elapsed so far in 2026, average prices for slaughter cattle across Mercosur countries have risen sharply. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index increased 6 cents this week to US$ 4.51 per kg carcass, accumulating a 5.5% recovery (24 cents) since the beginning of the year.

Brazil’s acting president, Geraldo Alckmin, held a phone call with China’s vice president, Han Zheng, to discuss—among other issues—the safeguards applied by the Chinese government to imported beef.

Indonesia authorized 14 new Brazilian beef plants to export, bringing the total number of approved facilities to 52. Over the past six months, Indonesia has expanded approvals from 21 plants to more than double, following audits carried out in December 2025.

The long-standing rivalry between JBS (Batista family) and Marfrig (Molina family) has entered a new chapter in the Middle East, where both companies are stepping up investments in the halal market, driven by the growth of the Muslim population. The segment already moves close to US$ 2 trillion annually, and global halal meat consumption is expected to exceed US$ 1.5 trillion by 2027, according to Nielsen.

Slaughter cattle prices accelerated their upward trend, driven by relatively tight supply amid growing demand from both the domestic and export markets.

President Yamandú Orsi arrived in the People’s Republic of China to begin an official visit running from February 1–7, with an agenda focused on strengthening bilateral ties, political dialogue, and commercial, academic and cultural promotion. The official delegation—made up of government authorities and business representatives and exceeding 100 members—is a record.

“It is a highly relevant milestone and a major endorsement that President Yamandú Orsi, before completing his first year in office, travels to China with one of the largest delegations since diplomatic relations began,” said Gastón Scayola, head of INAC.

Amid lower slaughter and beef production, Uruguay’s beef exports began 2026 at a slower pace than last year. Based on Customs data from export applications, shipments totaled 29,564 tons of fresh beef at an average value of US$/t 7,370. Volumes fell 6% y/y, offset by an 18% increase in the average FOB value.

The average export value of frozen beef to China surged in January, up 9% m/m to US$/t 5,283, the highest since mid-2022 (42 months). The increase reflected higher prices for both boneless and bone-in products: boneless frozen beef averaged US$/t 6,172 (+5% m/m), while bone-in beef averaged US$/t 3,834 (+8% m/m).

China continues to dominate Uruguay’s exports of offal, tripe and bovine stomachs. In January, Uruguay exported 7,327 tons of offal, of which China took 5,859 tons (80%). For tripe and stomachs, 917 tons were shipped to China, 69% of the 1,338 tons exported.

Exports of chilled beef to the European Union (EU) began the year at a strong pace. Despite a year-on-year decline in overall shipments versus last January, chilled exports to the EU rose 17% y/y to 1,921 tons.

The sheep sector added a new operator in recent weeks, with Brazilian group Patagonia Meat starting sheep slaughter in Uruguay. The company is operating under a custom slaughter (façon) arrangement at Frigorífico La Trinidad (Oferan), in Flores, focusing on well-finished, good-quality lambs and hoggets, mainly for the Brazilian market.

The finished cattle market remains firm, with prices adjusting upward week after week. “There is virtually no supply,” said —more or less in those words— two market operators yesterday afternoon. Even though the processing sector believes that current cattle prices exceed what margins would justify, the scarcity of supply is keeping price references on an upward track.

Cattle slaughter in the last week of January remained virtually unchanged from the previous week. INAC reported that as of January 31, 45,984 head entered plants, just 97 fewer than the prior week.

The sheep meat market remains firm, with prices holding steady. Lambs are trading around US$ 5.65–5.70 per kg, while adult sheep are quoted at US$ 4.65–4.70. The backdrop continues to be one of limited supply.

Argentina’s main beef exporters are working on a private agreement to distribute the China beef quota imposed for three years under China’s safeguard regime. The move follows China’s decision to apply a “first come, first served” system for each country, rather than allowing exporters to manage their own national quotas.

According to a report by IERAL, part of the Fundación Mediterránea, beef cattle was the only major agricultural activity in 2025 whose prices outpaced inflation. Grains (soybeans, corn and wheat), dairy and pork all faced a more challenging scenario.

The upward momentum seen last week in some categories has fully materialized. British-cross steers of higher carcass quality moved into the AR$ 8,000–8,150 per kg on the hook range, while zebu-cross steers rose to AR$ 7,800–8,000.

Activity at Paraguay’s export-oriented meatpacking industry fell sharply in the first month of the year. SENACSA reported that 148,267 head of cattle were processed in January, 28% less than in January 2025 and the lowest January figure since 2021.

The fact that the US tariff-rate quota for “other countries”, under which Paraguay operates, was filled just days into the year significantly curtailed Paraguayan exports to the United States in January.

Paraguay’s National Competition Commission (CONACOM) confirmed concrete progress in the investigation opened against seven export meatpackers, amid indications of potential anti-competitive practices, mainly linked to alleged price collusion in the beef market.

Paraguay’s cattle market extended its firm tone over the past week, with strong buying pressure from processors and transactions above list prices. For standard male cattle, plants are paying US$ 4.55–4.60 per kg carcass weight, with scope for further improvement depending on lot quality and immediate slaughter needs.

US cattle slaughter fell 6.4% in 2025 to 29.3 million head, the lowest level since 2015 and the third consecutive annual decline. Since 2022, slaughter volumes are down 13%, reflecting a prolonged herd destocking process that has been underway since 2019.

Total cattle numbers continued to decline, confirming that herd rebuilding in the USA remains slow and uneven, according to data published by USDA and reported by Drovers.

While January–November beef exports to Korea, the leading value market, remained slightly ahead of the 2024 pace, beef and variety meat shipments in November declined 20% to 17,258 mt, valued at US$ 176.2 million (down 15%). Through the first 11 months of 2025, exports were 1% higher year-on-year in both volume (211,665 mt) and value (US$ 2.02 billion), surpassing the US$ 2 billion mark for the fifth consecutive year.

Limited trade pushed fed cattle prices higher, while reduced slaughter capacity and constrained supplies continue to shape the market, according to The AG Center.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices were slightly to moderately higher.

The World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) has issued a statement underscoring the need for rigorous implementation of animal welfare standards during transport.

Australia is not typically a major supplier of beef to the European market, but Europe’s growing import needs are driving a rapid increase in shipments to the region.

Among meat products rejected by General Administration of Customs of China (GACC), beef was the most rejected in December, with a total of 773.07 tons, OIG+X reported based on official data. Chicken followed, while pork and sheepmeat accounted for much smaller volumes.

China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) has suspended import declarations for beef products from all 23 eligible Irish establishments.

Following a slight decline in 2024, pork production in China reached a record high of 59.38 million tons last year, up 4.1% from the previous year.

China’s safeguard was received unevenly across South American countries. Brazil was clearly the most affected, receiving a quota 350,000 tons lower (-24%) than the volume that arrived from Brazil in 2025. Argentina was allocated a similar volume (+8% versus 2025), while Uruguay received a quota 59% higher than its 2025 shipments to China. Bolivia, meanwhile, was exempt from quotas, as other regional exporters.