“It is striking how a single measure can change a market from one moment to the next,” a trader reflected yesterday on the drastic shift in China’s beef import market following the safeguard measures to protect domestic production announced by the government on the last day of last year.

After limited activity in the first days of the year due to holidays, exports to the United States have started to gain momentum in a firm market.

Chilled beef availability for Europe is limited at the start of the year, keeping the market firm despite weak selling conditions in the continent.

High cattle prices in Argentina and Uruguay are reducing kosher operations in those countries and prompting more operators to move to Paraguay and Brazil, where cattle prices are lower.

The Uruguayan market is showing strong demand for beef from the region, mainly from Brazil.

The sheepmeat market in the Middle East is somewhat quieter. One operator reported lamb carcass sales at US$/t 6,700, although not all exporters in Uruguay “are willing to sell at that price,” given high domestic sheep values.

Cattle slaughter in Mercosur countries reached a peak in 2025.

The average value of slaughter cattle in the region climbed another step this week. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index rose by 2 cents to US$ 4.33 per kilo carcass weight, the highest level since early May 2022, more than 40 months ago.

After 26 years, on Friday January 9, 2026, the European Union approved the trade agreement with Mercosur. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to travel to Asunción to sign the deal.

Cattle slaughter in Brazil reached a record level in 2025. According to information from the Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (MAPA), export-approved plants (with SIF) processed 30.31 million head of cattle, 1.8 million more than in the previous year (+6.3%), marking an all-time high.

Researchers at Cepea warn that, despite operating at record production levels, Brazil’s livestock sector faces a new challenge following the safeguards applied by China to imported beef.

The state of Mato Grosso sent 607,930 cattle to slaughter in December 2025, consolidating last year as a record in the number of animals processed by packing plants. In total, slaughter in the state throughout 2025 reached 7.46 million head, 1.44% above the 2024 total and the highest volume ever sent to the hook by the state, according to data from Indea-MT, released by Imea.

In the first six business days of 2026, Brazil exported 89,307 tons of beef at an average value of US$ 5,529 per ton shipment weight, according to information from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex).

Feed costs for cattle feedlots in Brazil closed 2025 at levels significantly below those of 2024, shaping one of the most favorable scenarios in recent years for the activity, according to the Ponta Agro Feed Cost Index (ICAP), reported by the DBO portal.

Prices for finished male cattle in Brazil’s main livestock regions remained firm over the past week, with some areas posting higher references while others held steady.

Although the government decided not to declare an Agricultural Emergency, the MGAP announced a package of support measures to address the water deficit.

Uruguay exported 11,383 tons of sheepmeat in 2025 for US$ 71.9 million, according to information from the Uruguayan Wool Secretariat (SUL).

The slaughter cattle market is tight, with brisk slaughterhouse bookings and prices maintaining the upward trend seen since the start of the year. Weekend rainfall and firmer international prices are supporting demand amid limited supply.

After two weeks affected by year-end holidays, cattle slaughter exceeded 40,000 head, although it remained below previous levels.

Sheep slaughter increased 50% week on week, driven by the resumption of production for the Israeli market at the Durazno-based Frigocerro plant.

According to several sources in the meatpacking industry, at a meeting requested by Argentina to clarify doubts about the allocation methodology of the new beef quota implemented by China, officials from that country stated that the “first come, first served” system will be applied.

In line with what was anticipated in the previous edition of WBR based on data from the sanitary service SENASA, official figures show that 1.132 million cattle were slaughtered in December, 8.6% fewer than in December last year.

Cumulative slaughter in 2025 reached 13.584 million head, 2.4% below 2024. Within this overall average, young steer slaughter (the most numerous male category) declined by 3%, while slaughter of steers increased by 3%. Among non-castrated males—much smaller categories and similar in size—young intact males (MEJ) rose 5%, while bull slaughter fell 5%.

In December, 158,237 cows were slaughtered, 2.2% fewer than in the previous month, extending an uninterrupted month-on-month decline since July 2025.

The European Commission’s approval of the EU–Mercosur agreement added a new layer of excitement to producers’ expectations, which had already been buoyed by the disclosure of the annual quota granted by China to Argentina and by the (still unconfirmed) reports that the beef quota for the United States could be increased fivefold, to 100,000 tons. In this context, some sales of steers were reported at prices as high as Ar$ 8,200.

The slaughter cattle market remains firm, with expectations that some upward price adjustments may occur in the coming days.

The Mexican government decided to reintroduce, starting in 2026, a system of tariff quotas for a range of agri-industrial products, including beef, pork, and rice.

The United States Department of Agriculture released updated dietary recommendations last week that place a stronger emphasis on adequate protein consumption as a core pillar of a healthy diet. The new guidance reflects growing recognition of protein’s role in preserving muscle mass, supporting metabolic health, and improving satiety across age groups, particularly among older adults.

Late Friday packers raised bids another dollar to purchase a few more cattle at $233 — one higher than last week, Th AG Center reported. Dressed prices in the north improved $5 during the week to $365.

Compared to the last market test, beef import prices in the US were firm to higher, according to the USDA.

Spanish authorities confirmed that the recent African swine fever (ASF) outbreak involves a previously unidentified strain, informed Pig333.

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 123.6 points in December, down 1.7 points (1.3%) from its revised November value, although it still stood 4.1 points (3.4%) above its level a year earlier.

A proposal to implement a self-managed system for Australia’s beef export quota to China is gaining traction within the industry. The initiative was developed by analyst Simon Quilty in response to the new safeguard mechanism announced by Chinese authorities, Beef Central reported.

After the end of the New Year celebrations, beef inspection rates recorded a significant decline, which helped partially ease pressure on customs clearance processes.

Stocks of imported beef stored in cold facilities in China failed to sustain their growth trend toward the end of the year.

The year 2025 closed with a moderate decline in wholesale beef prices in China. According to OIG+X references, after reaching a 17-month high in November of nearly US$ 9.50 per kilo, prices edged slightly lower to around US$ 9.40.