Authorities from China’s Ministry of Commerce continue to meet with delegations from the main beef-supplying countries, outlining some of the guidelines that will underpin the safeguard measure expected to take effect from January 1 and to be officially announced today, December 31.

Although uncertainty and noise persist around the potential safeguard measures China may implement to “manage” beef imports (see more in Asia), some sources consulted by World Beef Report (WBR) highlighted a faster pace of inquiries from Chinese importers in the final week of the year, even with some price improvement compared with previous weeks.

With many market participants away for the holiday period over the past two weeks, expectations are now centered on the tariff-preference quotas opening on January 1 for the US calendar year.

With limited Argentine supply due to the closure of several plants and low stocks in Europe, prices for Hilton rump & loin cuts firmed last week.

Deals for January shipments to the Chilean market remain at relatively stable levels, according to an exporter who reported to WBR deals for 20 cuts at US$/t 7,200 CIF from Paraguay, and round cuts in a range of US$/t 6,400–6,500 CIF.

The average value of steers in Mercosur countries is ending 2025 on a firm note. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index rose 2 cents on the week to US$ 4.27 per kilo carcass weight, a reference that is 21% higher than the US$ 3.54 recorded in the final week of 2024.

Brazilian cattle production is expected to enter a new phase of the cycle in 2026, following several years of expanding supply. According to projections from Agrifatto, next year would mark the first annual contraction after four consecutive years of growth, as a result of the heavy female liquidation recorded in recent years. The high share of cows in slaughter reduced replacement rates and the number of animals available for finishing.

On the futures curve, the average price per @ of beef for 2026 stood at R$ 333.10 on December 12, a 6% increase compared with 2025. A gradual moderation in supply is expected throughout next year.

Trading activity in the slaughter cattle market has been minimal in these final days of the year, which is typical in Brazil.

The combination of high prices and larger production volumes sharply boosted revenues in Uruguay’s beef cattle sector, surpassing US$ 3.4 billion for the first time ever and posting a strong 35% annual increase. Compared with 2022, when the previous record was set, revenues are up 15%.

In 2025, Uruguay is expected to slaughter around 2.4 million head of cattle, an annual increase of about 150,000 head.

Expectations that the market would tilt in favor of demand because of lower slaughter activity in the final two weeks of the year did not materialize.

The year is ending with the highest share of cows within total slaughter. INAC reported that in the week through December 27, 32,034 head of cattle entered plants, a logical decline compared with previous weeks.

The sheep meat market remains stable. The sharp correction seen in previous weeks is now behind, and price references are unchanged from last week amid much lower activity for the species.

Argentina will close 2025 with exports of 900,000 tons carcass weight equivalent, with slaughter close to 13.5 million head, said Georges Breitschmitt, president of the Argentine Beef Promotion Institute (IPCVA).

Prices for export cattle held at the previous week’s levels. Steers of the best beef quality, British-breed crossbreds, continue to trade around Ar$ 7,600–7,800 per kilo carcass weight, while zebu-cross steers range between Ar$ 7,300 and 7,600 per kilo.

Prices for finished cattle for slaughter remained unchanged in the final week of 2025, amid very limited business activity due to the holiday period and leave taken by part of the meatpacking industry as well as cattle operations.

US consumer confidence deteriorated in December amid deepening anxiety over jobs and income, consistent with economists' expectations for a sharp moderation in consumer spending after it surged in the third quarter.

For a long time, artificial intelligence was seen as a topic for technology fairs or a distant promise for the agricultural sector. In the United States, that is now a thing of the past.

Sustainable Beef LLC will hire about 100 more people and raise its daily cattle processing goal by 300 head in response to next month's closure of Lexington's 35-year-old meatpacking plant.

Packers are buying this week for an upcoming full slaughter week. Fed cattle supplies remain tight, but by the end of the month the Tyson plant in Lexington will shut down, prompting remaining plants to adjust slaughter volumes in line with beef demand.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices were not fully established.

The import needs for beef among European Union (EU) member countries are reflected both in volumes and in the average import value.

In the year through November, countries allocated EU beef import quotas reported the issuance of export certificates for 30,335 tons, representing 55.5% of the total quota of 54,637 tons assigned for the 2025/26 cycle.

The UK government has presented what it describes as the most ambitious animal welfare reforms in a generation

Indonesia’s status as a powerhouse market for Australian export cattle has risen to even greater heights in 2025, taking almost three quarters of shipped stock this calendar year, Beef Cetral said.

The protection measures for China’s domestic beef production that the government has been reviewing for the past year would be announced on December 30 (or later) and would come into force as of January 1, potentially with retroactive effect, according to a document issued by the Australian Meat Industry Council (AMIC) following a meeting held on December 23 between China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DAFT).

China’s customs authority (GACC) rejected the entry of 2,202 tons of meat in November, of which the vast majority (1,712 tons, or 78%) was poultry meat and the remainder (490 tons, or 22%) beef, based on a report from OIG+X.

Last week, the Chinese government set the daily reference rate for the yuan at a level that came in below market estimates by a record margin, in the latest signal of policymakers’ intention to curb the currency’s appreciation. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the so-called yuan “fixing” at 7.0358 per dollar, below the average estimate of traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The Philippines has lifted the ban on the supply of pork from Russia, the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) reported. The Philippine Bureau of Animal Industry recognized the adequacy of veterinary supervision in Russia and the effectiveness of the measures being implemented to mitigate the risks of African swine fever spread.