On the futures curve, the average price per @ of beef for 2026 stood at R$ 333.10 on December 12, a 6% increase compared with 2025. A gradual moderation in supply is expected throughout next year. The data is available in Agro Mensal, a report published by Itaú BBA’s agribusiness consulting unit.
In the coming months, the trend points to higher availability of grassfed cattle and the start of the seasonal period of female slaughter, reinforcing the importance of exports for price stability.
“Maintaining the flow of beef exports to China in the coming months will be crucial to avoid downward pressure on cattle prices, in a scenario of comfortable short-term supply,” said Cesar de Castro Alves, head of Agro Consulting at Itaú BBA, in a statement.
The relationship between beef prices and cattle prices indicates some room for short-term price increases. However, ample supply limits more consistent movements. Preliminary data on slaughter under federal inspection (SIF) in November indicate that the strong pace observed in September and October has been maintained, according to the bank’s statement.
According to Itaú BBA, projected margins for feedlots remain positive, considering future cattle prices and feed costs. “The main concern is the increase in lean cattle prices, given greater difficulty in replacement. In the case of calves, prices are expected to continue rising, with restricted supply and greater pressure on breeding and finishing,” the investment bank said.
Source: Ascom Itaú Unibanco
