Pessimism surrounding beef imports into China remains in place in the penultimate week of the year. Many importers have stepped back from commercial activity, while others argue they still have “high volumes” to place ahead of the peak Chinese New Year consumption season in late January.

With many importers focused on logistics related to the arrival of beef that can enter tariff-free —particularly the 52,000-ton quota for third countries, under which Brazil and Paraguay ship— activity with the US market is limited. From Argentina, sources reported deals for 90 CL under quota in a range of US$/t 7,000–7,200 CFR.

Following the same holiday-driven pattern seen in other markets, Europe also saw few deals closed in the last week. From Argentina, a source reported sales of rump & loin at US$/t 18,000, slightly below levels from seven days earlier.

The Chilean market maintains a similar tone to previous weeks, with price references slightly lower but still within the same range. Brazil’s 19/20 cuts are trading between US$/t 6,300 and 6,400, while Paraguayan beef remains firm around US$/t 7,000–7,100, according to an operator consulted by WBR.

The international sheep meat market remains stable in most destinations, although the Middle East has begun to show signs of a downward correction. According to a broker speaking to WBR, lamb carcasses that had been trading around US$/t 7,000 fell to US$/t 6,700 in recent deals.

The combination of declining prices in local currencies and weakness in regional currencies pushed the average value of the Mercosur steer to its lowest level in the past seven weeks. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index fell by 8 cents to US$ 4.25 per kilo carcass weight.

Brazil maintained its intense beef export pace in the third week of December. The Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) reported that in the first 20 days of the month, shipments totaled 218,357 tons at an average value of US$ 5,590 per ton.

The decision by Minerva Foods to resume dividend payments, after two years without distributing profits, marks the beginning of a new phase for the company, supported by a “clear deleveraging path,” according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. According to the bank, once fourth-quarter results are released — usually between February and March — the company could still announce additional payouts.

The finished male cattle market is largely oversupplied, with longer slaughter bookings and prices posting moderate downward corrections for the second consecutive week.

According to the annual report of Opypa, the Planning and Agricultural Policy Office of the Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries, a similar calving rate is expected for the 2025/26 cycle compared to the previous season, and the number of calves in 2026 is projected to approach 3 million head (2.9 million).

The use of concentrated feed for animal nutrition in Uruguay reached a historical high in 2024, exceeding 3.1 million tons, according to a study by Opypa. The year-on-year increase was 24%, mainly driven by greater grainfed cattle finishing and a record grain harvest, especially corn.

Lower demand because of reduced activity during the year-end weeks is putting downward pressure on finished cattle prices. Supply is not abundant, but demand is positioned at a lower level.

Cattle slaughter increased last week compared with the previous week’s low, mainly due to a significant rise in cow activity. By a narrow margin, in the week ending December 20 more cows than steers were slaughtered, something that had not occurred since the last week of 2023, almost two years ago.

Sheep slaughter remained strong last week and is very likely to start declining from the current week onward. INAC reported that 40,291 sheep were processed in the week ending December 20, staying above 40,000 head for the fourth consecutive week. Lambs accounted for 29,681 head, representing 74% of the total.

Exports of fresh and frozen beef in November 2025 totaled 64,477 tons (product weight), representing a 5.4% month-on-month decline and a 4.9% year-on-year drop, marking the lowest volume since July 2025.

In November, average FOB prices for Argentine chilled boneless beef reached record highs in some destinations. This was particularly the case for the United States, which averaged US$ 15,408 per ton, up 52.3% year on year, and Israel, which averaged around US$ 10,087 per ton, a 46.4% increase from a year earlier.

China remained the main destination for Argentine beef in November, despite shipments of 28,434 tons of frozen boneless beef, which represented a 10.5% decline from October 2025 and a 20.9% drop year on year, marking the lowest volume since May.

The 5,544 tons of chilled boneless beef shipped to the EU in November represented a 14.4% decline compared with the previous month, although they were up 15.6% year on year.

The United States purchased a record 4,642 tons of Argentine beef in November 2025, including 3,867 tons of frozen beef (also a record) and 775 tons of chilled beef. This volume positioned the US as the third-largest destination for Argentine beef by volume.

Israel imported 1,301 tons of chilled cuts and 1,165 tons of frozen beef in November, a significantly lower volume than in the months prior to the Jewish New Year holiday slowdown.

Exports of beef offal and preparations totaled 9,765 tons in November, down 21.3% from October and 27.5% year on year.

Following the production slowdown announced by several export-oriented plants during the year-end holidays, export steer prices appear to have stabilized.

Prices for cattle destined for slaughter remained unchanged over the past week. The industry maintained its price grid, with list prices at US$ 4.20 per kilo carcass weight for standard males and US$ 3.90 per kilo for cows.

Bolivia’s president, Rodrigo Paz, together with his Cabinet, enacted Supreme Decree No. 5503, which among its main economic measures eliminates the Internal Supply and Fair Price Certificate as a prior requirement for exporting agricultural and agro-industrial products.

The US cattle industry is undergoing a process that many overlook, but which is already having real effects across the global beef supply chain. This is not a short-term crisis driven by prices, weather, or market conditions. What is unfolding is a deep and silent structural shift, concentrated at the very foundation of the system: the cow-calf sector.

Retail ground beef prices in November rose 2% from September to $6.78 a pound, according to federal data reported for Down Jones.

A new international study has confirmed that the H5N1 avian flu virus is gradually evolving to better infect cattle, raising concerns for countries with large poultry and livestock populations such as India.

Trading this week in the US cattle market is expected to be compressed and light. Some smaller operations are delaying any marketings until after the first of the year, with tax planning playing a role in marketing decisions. A brief survey of operators, according to The AG Center report, finds few are optimistic about financial prospects for 2026.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices were not fully established.

The European Union (EU) has committed, in a letter sent to Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, to sign the free trade agreement with Mercosur in early January, following internal disagreements that prevented the deal from being signed on Saturday, December 20, as initially planned. The European Commission now expects to sign the Mercosur trade agreement on January 12 in Paraguay.

The outlook for the EU meat sector faces a decade of structural transformation marked by declining production and shifting consumer preferences, according to the report EU Agricultural Outlook 2025–2035.

China imported only 187,468 tons of beef in November, well below the 281,000 tons recorded in October and the 316,000 tons in September.

The sharp decline in imports of beef offal from Uruguay meant that the United States, despite not recording a significant volume, became the main supplier of these products to the Chinese market in November.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, continues to signal to Mercosur diplomats its interest in negotiating a free trade agreement with the South American bloc, even while acknowledging that such a deal remains out of reach for now.

China sharply reduced tariffs last week on pork imports from the European Union, valued at more than US$ 2.0 billion, in the final decision of an antidumping investigation widely seen as a response to EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, Reuters reported.