The expectation of a possible safeguard measure (see Argentina section) continues to trigger speculation and sluggishness in the Chinese market, with mixed signals depending on origin and product type. While some traders describe a “paralyzed” market, saturated with beef waiting on regulatory decisions, others report a normal level of demand for this time of year.

The US beef market is going through a relatively calm period, with little urgency to purchase imported beef. A regional trader reported that 90 CL blocks from Paraguay closed “with difficulty” at US$/t 5,750 CFR, and at US$ 5,800 from Uruguay out of quota. There were also deals for round cuts in natural proportion from Paraguay at US$ 6,700 CFR, and knuckle cuts to Canada at US$/t 7,000 CFR.

Prices for rump & loin Hilton cuts remained firm last week, with Argentina quoted in the US$/t 17,800–18,500 FOB range, depending on the brand.

Chile held a calm presidential runoff last Sunday, with a peaceful election day and what is expected to be a smooth transition of power. The winner was the frontrunner, José Antonio Kast, a pro-market right-wing candidate, sparking optimism in sectors linked to trade and imports.

The prices offered by Egypt this week for forequarters from Paraguay, around US$/t 5,100 CFR, “could not compete” with those paid by the US, according to a Paraguayan exporter.

The World Beef Report Mercosur Steer Index remained mostly unchanged over the past week, with an average reference of US$/kg 4.33 carcass, just 1 cent above the previous week.

In the first two weeks of December, Brazil exported 143,578 tons of beef, 60% above the same period of 2024, according to data reported by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex).

In March, China temporarily suspended beef imports from three Brazilian plants after finding prohibited substances

IBGE data for the third quarter of 2025 show that Brazil’s beef slaughter remains highly concentrated by region, reinforcing the structural dominance of the Center-West, which accounted for 36.6% of total slaughter. The North (24.1%) and Southeast (21.3%) followed, while the South (9.1%) and Northeast (8.9%) had smaller shares.

Slaughter cattle prices showed little variation in Brazil last week. According to the weekly state-level survey by consulting firm Scot, the average price of the finished male in the main cattle-raising states, net of the Funrural tax, was R$/@ 304, down 0.7% from the previous week.

The value generated from the sale of all products derived from a Type Steer 2.0 after the industrial process rose by 3.7% in November to US$ 1,857 per head, reaching a new annual high, according to INAC. It also came close to matching the nominal record of US$ 1,870 set in May 2022.

Uruguay’s economy showed clear signs of cooling in the third quarter of 2025. According to official data released by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), GDP expanded 1.2% year-on-year, slowing from 2.3% in the second quarter and 3.4% in the first. On a seasonally adjusted basis, economic activity contracted 0.2% compared with the previous quarter.

Nearly 20 years after implementing a mandatory and universal cattle traceability system, Uruguay is taking a new technological step to strengthen this strategic asset.

Uruguayan packers continue to show a calm approach, with little urgency to buy cattle for the last slaughter weeks of the year. “They are in a light position in terms of procurement, and when they close deals, they do so at the prices they propose,” a market source told WBR.

Cattle slaughter declined for the third consecutive week, posting its lowest volume in two months. According to INAC data, 41,295 head were processed in the week ending December 13, a 10% weekly drop (-5,289 head).

Sheep slaughter also softened last week, apparently moving past the near-50,000-head peak recorded the previous week. In the week to December 13, 42,175 sheep were processed, a 14% decline (-7,000 head).

According to sources in the Argentine meat industry, the Chinese government has decided that the safeguard measures announced in December 2024 — aimed at protecting its domestic beef industry and whose publication has been delayed — will take the form of a country-specific quota that will continue to be subject to the 12% tariff.

Argentina’s Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (SAGyP) welcomed the EU's decision to postpone implementation of the new Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) until December 30, 2026, calling it “a step in the right direction, aligned with the many efforts and concerns raised by the Argentine government, and ensuring that Argentina’s agri-food exports to the EU are not subject to new environmental requirements.”

Argentina’s Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries issued Resolution 242/2025 to define the distribution rules for beef quotas to the EU, UK and United States over the coming years.

Export steer prices in Argentina continued their upward trend, rising another AR$ 100 per kg. Top-quality grainfed steers, mostly British crossbreds, are now quoted between AR$ 7,600 and 7,900 per kg dressed. Crossbred zebu steers moved up to a range of AR$ 7,300 to 7,600 per kg dressed.

A more than 3% drop in the exchange rate during December and favorable weather for pasture management led to a decline in cattle supply in Paraguay. Additionally, most producers had already completed their sales before the holiday season.

Brazil continues to gain prominence as a supplier to the Chilean market, the main importer of beef in South America.

The plant, operated by Swift Beef Company, will close on February 2, resulting in the loss of 374 jobs, according to a notice filed with the California Employment Development Department.

USDA has released delayed September red meat export data following the recent government shutdown, showing a sharp deterioration in US beef exports. According to figures compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF), beef shipments in September fell to their lowest level in more than five years, as exports to China were effectively halted and volumes to other Asian markets also declined year-over-year.

Mexico has opened an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into imports of US pork legs and shoulders, following complaints from domestic producers alleging unfair pricing and government support. The move was confirmed by Mexico’s Economy Ministry and published in the official government bulletin.

Sales volumes increased this past week as higher slaughter volumes burned more kill slots. Fed cattle prices also rose — US$/cwt 5 higher live and US$/cwt 10 higher dressed compared to the previous week's tops. Late-week activity was mainly at US$/cwt 230 live in both the North and South, and US$/cwt 355 dressed in the North, The AG Center report said.

Compared to the last market test, import prices were weak to lower, with some instances sharply lower.

By Francesca Basso

Italy has aligned with France in calling for a postponement of the vote on the European Union–Mercosur trade agreement, which is expected to be discussed this week at the level of EU member states (Council). According to Reuters, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed on the need to delay the decision. The Italian government has declined to comment.

During the first ten months of 2025, Russia exported 324,000 t of pork, up 26% year-on-year, according to Yuri Kovalev, president of the Russian Pork Producers Union.

Australian cattle carcase weights have eased from recent peaks, but underlying productivity gains across the herd remain firmly in place. According to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data, national average carcase weights reached 309 kg/head in 2025, still 47 kg heavier than two decades ago, reflecting sustained improvements in genetics, production systems and overall efficiency.

China’s consumer inflation accelerated to a 21-month high in November, driven mainly by higher food prices, while deflation at the factory gate deepened, reinforcing concerns that domestic demand remains weak. According to official data, the world’s second-largest economy continues to show structural imbalances despite policy support.

Ana Laura DeLeon, a halal-rite expert, explains why Uruguay has a strategic opportunity to position its beef and other agri-food products in a high-value segment,