Report 1644

As of press time, there was still no definition on whether Brazil and the US would reach an agreement to prevent the 50% surtax on Brazilian products from taking effect this Friday, August 1—a measure that could cause major distortions in the global beef trade, as it would virtually exclude Brazil from the US market (with a total tariff of 86.4%), its second-largest destination so far this year.

Chinese importers maintained their stance of closing deals at lower prices—anticipating a potential withdrawal of Brazilian beef from the US market. In a conversation with World Beef Report (WBR), a regional trader said several importers continue “speculating” on a possible drop in Brazil’s selling prices after July 31.

For a Uruguayan processor, prices for rump & loin Hilton cuts remained stable last week at around US$/t 16,000. Meanwhile, a trader reported deals for Argentina in a range of US$/t 17,100–17,200 FOB last week. Another processor mentioned a broader range of US$/t 16,800–17,300. Deals were also closed for rib eye from Argentina at US$/t 18,000 FOB, a product in slightly higher demand than the rest of the rump & loin set.

A regional trader reported sales of lamb carcasses to MENA destinations at US$/t 5,700 CFR and beef tenderloins at US$/t 10,000.

A Uruguayan exporter reported a deal for a mix of offal to Russia, quoting liver at US$/t 2,150 CFR, head meat at US$/t 3,500, and tongue at US$/t 4,700.

The average value of slaughter cattle in the region showed signs of stability this week. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index rose by one cent to US$ 3.87 per kilo carcass weight.

Brazil maintained its downward trend for the fifth consecutive week, but this was more than offset by increases in Argentina and Paraguay.

The fourth week of July saw rising volumes of Brazilian beef exports, with the average value beginning to move past the consistent upward trend that began in mid-March.

While waging a battle before CADE citing Salic’s presence as a risk, the Vilela de Queiroz group used opposing arguments in Uruguay, according to Brazilian media The AgriBizz.

A delegation of eight senators met on Monday with company executives and representatives from the Brazil-U.S. Business Council in Washington, according to official sources cited by EFE, in an effort to ease Trump’s threat of imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian products.

On Wednesday the 23rd, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) published Ordinance SDA/Mapa No. 1,331/2025, establishing the implementation schedule for the National Program for the Individual Identification of Cattle and Buffaloes (PNIB).

Cattle for slaughter prices in Brazil fell again, marking the fifth consecutive weekly drop, although to a lesser extent than in the previous week. The average value of the finished male in the main cattle-producing states, based on Scot Consulting references, excluding the Funrural tax and with 30 days for payment, fell R$ 4.7 on the week to R$/@ 279.1, accumulating a decrease of R$ 25 (8%) over the past five weeks.

When the Ministry of Livestock releases the country’s cattle and sheep inventory data as for June 30 in the coming weeks, it will confirm a rise in the number of cattle. However, this growth will fall short of what had been projected months ago, as offtake during the second half of the 2024/25 fiscal year was higher than anticipated.

This is only a weekly figure, and the National Meat Institute (INAC) usually revises it downward the following week, but the average export value per kilo carcass during the seven days to July 19 was US$ 5,969, a record for the country. It clearly surpassed the previous high of US$ 5,698 per kilo carcass, which had been reached in 2022.

The slaughter cattle market is stable, with greater difficulty in reaching the top prices seen in previous weeks. This is due to several plants focusing their activity on beef production for the European quota 481, from grainfed animals, either from their own feedlots or from previously closed deals.

As anticipated in the previous edition of WBR, cattle slaughter jumped last week, driven by the opening of the production window for the European 481 grainfed quota. INAC reported that 50,931 head of cattle were processed during the week ending July 26, up 10,880 from the previous and nearly 8,400 more than the same week last year.

The slaughter sheep market remains very firm and in high demand, with supply extremely limited. Lamb prices reach US$ 4.70 per kilo carcass weight, and ewes are approaching US$ 3.85.

Although there had been speculation that the government might eliminate the remaining export taxes on beef, during the opening ceremony of the 137th edition of the Rural Exhibition, President Javier Milei announced a reduction in export duties for beef and poultry, as well as for major grains.

Data from the first 2025 foot-and-mouth disease vaccination campaign show a decline in Argentina's cattle stock for the third consecutive year, bringing the total below 50 million head.

Despite the cut in export duties announced by President Javier Milei on Saturday the 26th at the Rural Exhibition, as of yesterday the measure had not yet been published in the Official Gazette and therefore had not come into effect.

With a marked increase in demand, the livestock market maintained its upward trend, and prices are approaching the year’s highs, when males for slaughter reached US$ 4.15 per kilo carcass weight in early May. This week, the industry was buying regular slaughter males in a range of US$ 4.05–4.10 per kilo carcass weight and cows at US$ 3.80.

Beijing and Washington are expected to agree on a three-month extension of their tariff truce during the trade negotiations that began on Monday the 28th in Stockholm, according to the South China Morning Post, citing sources familiar with the matter.

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on July 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below July 1, 2024, informed the USDA in its Cattle On Feed Report for Julye. The inventory included 6.88 million steers and steer calves, up 1 percent from the previous year.

The US cattle herd has fallen to its lowest mid-year level on record, while heifer retention remains limited signaling that herd rebuilding is not yet underway in any significant way, said Beef Central about the report about mid-year cattle herd released by the USDA last Friday.

Analysts say the rebuild may be starting slowly, but ongoing high cattle prices continue to incentivize liquidation over retention.

The implications of two critically important trade deals with Japan and the EU have yet to provide any context for beef exports. Trump leads with the headliners and the details follow. They are unlikely to be negative and combined with a bullish Cattle On Feed report, the week will start on a positive note, anticipated the The AG Center.

Compared to the previous market test, US beef import prices remained steady to firm. Trading activity was slow, but moderate to good demand provided price support.

The United States and the European Union (EU) have reached a tariff agreement that includes 15% tariffs on European goods, as well as EU purchases of U.S. energy and military equipment, President Donald Trump announced, according to Efe.

The United Kingdom and India signed a free trade agreement last week during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to London. The deal includes tariff reductions on products ranging from textiles to whisky and automobiles, thereby allowing greater market access for businesses in both countries. The two nations concluded talks on the trade pact in May, after three years of intermittent negotiations.

Australia exhausted its duty-free beef quota under the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China on Thursday, July 24, according to export market sources consulted by World Beef Report (WBR)

The Australian Government has opened the door for imports of beef from the United States saying it is satisfied with traceability programs put in place by the US industry