US cattle herd in lowest levels on record

The US cattle herd has fallen to its lowest mid-year level on record, while heifer retention remains limited signaling that herd rebuilding is not yet underway in any significant way, said Beef Central about the report about mid-year cattle herd released by the USDA last Friday.

Analysts say the rebuild may be starting slowly, but ongoing high cattle prices continue to incentivize liquidation over retention.

The US biannual cattle inventory report showed about 94.2 million cattle and calves, down 1.3 percent from the 2023 levels (no report in 2024) and the lowest mid-year count on record.

“My feeling is that some movement towards herd rebuilding may be starting but is very slow and cautious,” Dr Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, commented in US media reports this week.

“It is possible, perhaps even likely, that the January 2025 beef cow herd will be the cyclical low, but the January 2026 inventory will likely be close to unchanged showing very little, if any, growth this year.”

While historically low herd numbers – the lowest in 75 years, record cattle prices and improved pasture conditions have driven speculation US ranchers will soon move to rebuild their herds, high cattle values are also contributing to the ongoing herd liquidation as ranchers opt to take advantage of strong markets and sell breeding cattle rather than join them.