Report 1635

Following the close of another edition of Sial Shanghai, Brazil's trade flow with China maintained a certain “fluidity” with “firm demand,” said a Brazilian trader to the World Beef Report (WBR). “Today the market is relatively stable. I don't see any drive or motivation to raise prices,” the source commented. Reference prices for forequarters held around US$/t 5,600–5,650 CFR, according to one broker, although an exporter claimed to have sold at up to US$/t 5,800 during the fair and rib at US$/t 6,500 CFR.

Over the past week, Paraguay finalized shipments of shin & shank at US$/t 6,250, oyster blade at US$/t 6,600, intercostals at US$ 9,200, and RFQ 90 VL at US$/t 5,000—all CFR.

With “a bit more supply from Argentina” and a European market struggling to “pass on” recent price gains to consumers, rump & loin Hilton prices corrected downward last week. Import and export sources cited prices in the US$/t 17,000–17,500 FOB range for Argentine Hilton. In Uruguay’s case, while Europe sought to pay US$/t 16,000–16,200 FOB, most of the industry positioned at US$/t 16,500 FOB last week, said a trader.

Trade with the US showed little change last week. In fact, news from US customs added more concern, with a circular stating that meat shipments involving transshipments after April 5 will face the additional 10% tariff.

Chile’s import market is still closing deals, albeit at a slower-than-usual pace, said a trader to WBR.

Given the weakness confirmed at Sial Shanghai for lamb exports, MENA countries continue to be the best commercial option for Uruguayan plants.

The WBR Mercosur Steer Index lost 5 cents last week, closing at US$ 3.85 per kg carcass—the lowest level since April 8 (US$ 3.84).

The average export value of Brazilian beef continues to rise. In the week ending May 24, the 50,799 tons exported averaged US$/t 5,327, according to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex). This is the highest average value since November 2022, two and a half years ago.

Brazil entered a decisive 28-day period last Thursday to be declared free of avian influenza, following disinfection efforts at the farm where the first case in the country’s commercial poultry sector was detected two weeks ago.

The confirmation of the first avian flu case in a commercial farm in Brazil — located in Montenegro (RS) — has increased caution among beef processors when it comes to cattle procurement. The main concern is that chicken, a direct competitor to beef, could gain ground in the domestic market after more than 20 countries imposed restrictions on Brazilian poultry imports.

JBS has received shareholder approval to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange — a milestone the company has pursued for a decade. In a meeting that lasted just 10 minutes to announce the result, JBS gained the approval of a majority of minority shareholders to proceed with the dual listing. Voting percentages were not disclosed.

Less than two weeks after announcing their merger, Marfrig and BRF have decided to submit the operation for approval by Cade (Administrative Council for Economic Defense), according to a material fact disclosed by Marfrig to the stock market.

The physical market for boi gordo closed last week with declines across most of Brazil, except for São Paulo, which rose 0.71%, averaging R$/@ 307.90, according to Agrifatto. This week, the market opened relatively stable, except for São Paulo, which dropped 0.8%.

The European Commission published last Thursday its classification of countries whose exports to the European Union could be linked to deforestation at origin. As expected, Uruguay was listed among the “low risk” countries. This means that only 1% of shipments will be subject to inspection. Deputy Foreign Minister Valeria Csukasi told El Observador that the classification is a “recognition” of Uruguay’s environmental and production management, and that being labeled “low risk” grants the country “a different status.” The only other South American country in this category is Chile.

Cattle prices remain on an upward trend, with no drastic change in scenario expected in the short term. That’s the sentiment shared by several agents in the finished cattle market. Last week, strong and widespread demand from processors across categories persisted, further strengthening prices. One intermediary quoted special grassfed steers at US$ 4.80–4.85 per kg carcass.

Slaughter activity slowed sharply, falling below 50,000 head. In the week ending May 26, a total of 47,471 head were processed, a 15.4% drop (–8,648) compared to the previous week, according to INAC. Steer slaughter totaled 23,132 head (–23.2%), cows 17,123 (–2.4%), and heifers 6,250 (–18.4%).

Sheep slaughter totaled 13,049 head, up 10.3% from the previous week and marking the highest activity level since the last week of March, according to INAC. Lambs led the figures with 8,144 head processed, followed by ewes (3,734) and hoggets (960).

Sources connected to Chinese importers and Argentine exporters say the Asian market’s opening to Argentine bovine offal has already been unofficially approved and is expected to be formally announced during the upcoming visit of China’s customs delegation to Argentina on June 8.

Export prices for chilled and frozen beef in April averaged US$ 5,068 per tonne, 6.5% higher than in March and 35.5% above April 2024.

In April, China imported 13,590 tonnes of bone-in beef and beef bones from deboning processes, worth US$ 24.3 million, and 22,216 tonnes of boneless beef worth US$ 98.1 million.

Exports of bovine offal and prepared products reached approximately 9,200 tonnes in April, worth US$ 15.8 million.

Export steer prices remained steady compared to the previous week. Top-quality finished crossbred steers (British breeds) are still trading around Ar$ 5,000–5,150 per kg dressed, while zebu crossbreds continue in the Ar$ 4,800–5,000 per kg dressed range.

Paraguayan President Santiago Peña announced with satisfaction the opening of the Singapore market to Paraguayan beef, pork, and poultry. This marks a major step forward for the country’s foreign trade, further strengthening its position as a reliable global food supplier.

Cattle prices saw a marked correction last week. According to market sources, very few plants were purchasing raw material at the start of this week. Slaughter steers dropped 30 cents, with the latest deals at US$ 3.80 per kg carcass, while cows traded at US$ 3.40–3.45 per kg.

As the US Meat Export Federation, (USMEF) convenes in Fort Worth for its Spring Conference May 21-23, talks of cattle herd size and rebuilding have come to mind. As keynote speaker, Randy Blach, CEO of CattleFax, addressed the topic noting that the industry is still in tight fed cattle supplies and there are more hooks than cattle to fill them when it comes to processing capacity, Drovers said.

As of May 1, 2025, the number of cattle and calves on feed for the US slaughter market in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.4 million. This figure represents a 2% decrease compared to the same date in 2024.

Markets were closed for Memorial Day this Monday. The processors will enter this week with a very light inventory of livestock for slaughter but this week’s slaughter volume is expected to record breaking small. Packers will sieze on the anticipated volume to regain some bargaining power with the retailers. Cattle owners will attempt to maintain their leverage on cash prices.

Compared to last market test, import prices were mostly slightly lower, instances unevenly steady.

President Donald Trump announced a postponement of the 50% tariff hike on EU products until July 9, following a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The move is intended to create space for serious trade negotiations and avoid further escalation in the transatlantic trade war.

Australian beef production in 2025 is expected to come close to equalling production records set in 2024, Rabobank says in its newly-released Australian Beef Seasonal Outlook 2025.

"Last year we were discussing stocks, with a market that wasn’t moving. This year is different,” said Fausto Brighenti of Ideal Trading, referring to Chinese demand during the Sial fair in Shanghai

"Five years ago, the business was much more about commodities", said said Allison Navarro of Marfrig and BRF during the Sial fair in Shanghai

For Brazilian exporters, the Sial fair in Shanghai was generally positive, said Marcelo Albanell of trading company Sudambeef

Regarding higher-value niches, Decker confirms that demand for grainfed beef is firm and supply limited, underpinning prices