Editor: Rafael Tardáguila
rafael@tardaguila.com.uy
The 2025 edition of Sial Shanghai, says Michel Decker (director of Opticarnes), felt calm and held no major surprises. China confirmed its role as a key market for beef: buyers remained interested and prices stayed close to the levels of the previous week, although there is still a search for niches and added value to differentiate the supply.
Decker saw a fair with fewer visitors than in the past. He attributes the lower attendance to a post-Covid-19 “weeding-out,” to the fact that Uruguay and other suppliers are now established, and to commercial activity peaking on the second day.
Compared with the last two editions, the focus of debate has shifted: in 2023 the concern was China’s accumulated inventories; in 2024 the dominant topic was stocks (then estimated at up to one million tons); in 2025 attention centers mainly on prices. The visible inventories, he says, correspond to beef imported this year, suggesting the earlier surplus has been absorbed. A key factor was the diversion of large Brazilian volumes to the United States ahead of the tariff increase, which eased China’s stock pressure and shifted it to the US.
Regarding higher-value niches, Decker confirms that demand for grainfed beef is firm and supply limited, underpinning prices. Australia enjoys a certain logistical and tariff advantage, while the opening of US plants for China remains stalled and subject to political swings.
He gives the fair a score of “7” out of 10: a positive result and necessary to maintain presence and contacts, though with room for improvement.
Analyzing key destinations, he highlights the United States as the “star market” of 2024 and one that should remain so: cattle there are expensive and the shortage of livestock is notable. However, the additional 10 % tariff imposed on 2 April dampened enthusiasm. Many importers brought forward purchases of Brazilian beef and now struggle to pass the extra cost on to the final consumer. Moreover, the duty-free quota held by other major suppliers blunts the impact of the 10 % levy on Uruguay. After the tariff, volume deals virtually stopped and are now limited to niches or previously closed contracts. Decker warns that current risks are more macro-economic (recession, inflation) than meat-specific.
For the trader, the European market “remains firm: frozen-beef prices are stable and chilled values have risen sharply, driven first by Argentina and closely followed by Uruguay.” Although there is a sense that current quotations are near a ceiling, the EU has consolidated itself as a viable outlet for manufacturing beef that the US stopped absorbing after the tariff increase.
