Rumors circulate that China will impose a global beef import quota

In recent hours, reports have been circulating about the decision the Chinese government may take in the context of its investigation into the impact of beef imports on its domestic market (industry and producers). While initially it was said that China would impose a quota system based on the volume exported by each of its suppliers, the version gaining ground now is that of a “global quota, and whoever gets there first uses it,” a trader told World Beef Report (WBR).

In 2024, China imported 2.87 million tons of fresh beef, a volume that has been increasing year by year. The quota, in principle, would be set at a level close to these annual import volumes.

The source added that the possibility of a global quota is causing “a lot of fear” among various beef suppliers to China because the only country capable of introducing “a large volume in a very short time would be Brazil.” In fact, this will be one of the topics that Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will address this week during his official visit to China, aiming to strengthen trade relations between the two countries. In Australia, there is concern that the duty-free quota it has under its FTA (currently at 208,000 tons and increasing at an annual rate of 3%) could be affected by this global import quota from China.

On the other hand, there are also “very harsh” versions suggesting that China would not allow any more beef imports once the quota is exhausted, while others talk about “prohibitive tariffs of 80% outside the quota, which perhaps a big supplier could dilute over the year,” the source said. The ruling from the Chinese authorities is expected in August.