Speculation over possible end of beef export taxes at Palermo Rural Expo

Although no one claims to have official information, there is growing speculation among various stakeholders in the beef supply chain that President Javier Milei may announce the full elimination of export taxes on beef during the upcoming Palermo Rural Expo, the country’s most important agricultural fair, which will take place from July 17 to 27.

Until August 2024, beef exports were subject to a 9% duty. That month, Decree 697/24 removed the tax on cow meat, while the rate on other categories was cut by 25%, bringing it down to 6.75%. One month earlier, Milei had already anticipated the measure in his speech at the 2024 Palermo Expo.

Beyond speculation, the idea of announcing the total elimination of export duties on beef seems logical, as the move appears to offer more political and economic benefits than costs for the government. Although the exact figure is not public, sector sources estimate that such a decision could represent a fiscal cost of US$ 150–200 million per year, roughly based on exports of about 200,000 tons of beef at an average price of US$ 14,000 per ton. Thus, without a major loss of revenue, the government would generate strong messaging impact, reinforcing both its break with Kirchnerism and its campaign commitment to continue reducing these levies on the agricultural sector, which Milei had previously labeled a “theft.”

This commitment has recently been cast into doubt, as Milei’s administration did not extend the temporary reduction of export duties on soybeans and corn introduced in January. As a result, the two main foreign-currency-generating crops reverted to their previous tax rates of 33% and 12%, respectively, up from 26% and 9.5%, straining the government’s relationship with producers for the first time.

An announcement removing export taxes on steer beef would help ease tensions between the government and farming organizations and avoid uncomfortable moments for Milei should he attend the Palermo Expo once again.