China shows disparity in prices and demand

Trade flows with China have yet to reach the level of fluidity that some exporters are hoping for. A Brazilian exporter told World Beef Report (WBR) that although he managed to close deals at the end of last week for forequarter 8-cut sets at up to US$/t 6,100 CFR, the market now appeared “more complicated” again, with demand looking “weaker.”

Meanwhile, a Uruguayan exporter considered that prices last week remained “stable” for round cuts, but “weaker” for items like rib plates or forequarter. “Demand is stronger for cuts with some added value, but it doesn’t extend across the entire market,” he said in a conversation with WBR. One issue the packer highlighted is a “potential increase” in Brazilian slaughter due to a larger volume of grainfed animals. “That could weigh on prices,” he noted. As for offal, he said prices are “trending down” amid rumors of new suppliers entering the market soon.

A regional broker reported deals from Uruguay for chuck & blade at US$/t 5,600 and shin & shank at US$/t 6,100. “Chinese buyers are showing more interest,” he remarked.

An Argentine trader said the sense is that the market “has hit a ceiling” and is “less intense” than in previous weeks. He indicated that while there is demand, it hasn’t necessarily translated into a sustained improvement in prices. The source cited references of US$/t 5,600 CFR for 6-cut cow sets, with deals reaching US$/t 5,800 for top-tier brands. Other Argentine market sources reported prices of US$/t 5,400–5,500 for 6-cut cows, US$/t 4,000–4,200 for 80 VL trimming, US$/t 6,100–6,200 for shin & shank, and US$/t 6,800–6,900 for round cuts.

A Chilean exporter stated that Chinese demand “remains very firm,” with references for cow quarters at US$/t 4,800 CFR, while 5-cut sets (excluding flank) are trading around US$/t 6,500, with expectations of achieving a US$/t 100–150 increase this week.

According to the weekly report from OIG+X, beef prices remained elevated throughout last week, with most cuts showing gains of US$/t 100 to 200. Since early June, values “have shown a sustained upward trend, with most cuts reaching their highest levels in two years”. As for trade volume, there was a slight increase compared to the previous week. “A small number of importers with a relatively optimistic market outlook remained active in placing orders. However, transaction volumes remained limited, mainly due to the difficulty of closing large-scale deals under sustained price pressure,” OIG+X reported.