Avian flu slows down cattle purchases by beef packers

The confirmation of the first avian flu case in a commercial farm in Brazil — located in Montenegro (RS) — has increased caution among beef processors when it comes to cattle procurement. The main concern is that chicken, a direct competitor to beef, could gain ground in the domestic market after more than 20 countries imposed restrictions on Brazilian poultry imports.

According to a sector source, the uncertainty has led processors to adopt shorter slaughter schedules. The disease has accelerated the downward trend in beef prices, which have already fallen 5.57% in 2025, reaching R$ 303.65, according to Cepea.

The price decline is further exacerbated by the seasonal effects of the dry period, which reduces pasture conditions and forces the sale of cattle — a pattern seen in 28 of the last 30 years, according to João Figueiredo, analyst at Datagro Pecuária. He warned that increased chicken supply could make beef less competitive, placing additional pressure on prices.

A week after the avian flu incident, data from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) indicate that Brazil’s domestic poultry meat supply has not been disrupted. Between May 15 and 20, the wholesale price of chilled chicken in Greater São Paulo dropped 1%, which Cepea attributed to the seasonal weakening of demand in the second half of the month.

In the pork sector, the slight decline observed since early last week continued, with the special pork carcass falling 0.5% from the end of the previous week through Tuesday.

However, the beef market was the most affected. The price of beef dropped sharply — 3.7% — in the wholesale market of Greater São Paulo. Although both slaughter cattle and beef prices were already low, the declines intensified starting Friday.