Avian flu outbreak may cost Brazil $1bn in chicken exports

Brazil’s poultry industry is already feeling the effects of the country’s first-ever confirmed case of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1), as several countries have suspended imports of Brazilian chicken. While the broader economic impact is expected to be limited, there are concerns about losses along the production chain. In the short term, increased domestic supply may even help curb inflation, Valor reported.

The announcement last Friday (16) of the H5N1 detection at a breeder farm in Montenegro, Rio Grande do Sul, prompted temporary export bans from major markets including China–Brazil’s largest customer–European Union countries, Argentina, Uruguay, Mexico, Chile, South Korea, South Africa, and Canada. Japan limited its ban to products from Montenegro, in line with a regionalization clause in its health agreement. These suspensions are in accordance with existing sanitary protocols.

As of Sunday night, Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry reported two more suspected cases under investigation: one at a commercial farm in Aguiarnópolis, Tocantins, and another in Ipumirim, Santa Catarina.

Brazilian poultry exporters have not released an estimate of potential losses, but a government official said the ban could cost up to $250 million per month—about 150,000 tonnes in monthly shipments. Economist Fábio Silveira of MacroSector projected total losses could reach between $500 million and $1 billion over the next 12 months.

Brazil is the world’s largest chicken exporter, shipping 5.29 million tonnes (fresh and processed) in 2024 and earning $9.92 billion in export revenue.