Outlook in the United States still unclear

Views on the US market are split. Some argue prices will keep rising because of tight cattle supplies and stronger futures, while others believe a ceiling has been reached and a correction is due. Before Trump’s tariffs, the domestic 90 CL price was widely expected to hit US$ 4.00/lb in May (it stood at US$ 3.80 at end March), but that never happened and the quote has even slipped to US$ 3.75. What did occur is that the gap with imported product narrowed: imported beef already in the US gained about 10 % (the extra tariffs apply only from 28 May for shipments made before 4 April). “The importer basically pocketed that 10 %,” a broker said.

Forward business for manufacturing beef remains tricky, as most players prefer product already inside the US to avoid further charges. “Some buyers won’t commit because they don’t know what they’ll end up paying—and we can’t rule out another Trump reversal before 27 May,” the source added. A Paraguayan exporter said the market feels “cooler” after the tariff hike: “Only today (yesterday) are they asking for offers—US$/t 5,300 CFR for out of quota 90 CL.”