The Chinese market showed little change over the past week. Importers remain cautious and pressure to close deals at lower values is becoming more evident.

A European importer described a market with high prices for South American beef, but increasing pressure from domestic European supply. Argentina is operating around US$/t 18,500 outside Hilton, equivalent to nearly US$/t 24,000 within the quota, with a margin of +/- US$/t 200.

In conversations with World Beef Report (WBR), a regional trader described a “weaker” US market in recent weeks, with difficulty closing deals and a demand that is selective and not in a hurry.

Despite the recent softening, underlying fundamentals remain unchanged. The US market continues to face a structural shortage of lean beef, supporting historically high prices.

Kosher slaughter is starting a new cycle in the region. A Paraguayan processor said operations would begin this Thursday, although price negotiations remain open. Another exporter expects to start next Monday, also without a defined price. Paraguayan plants are seeking an increase of US$/t 500–700 compared to the previous period, which was around US$/t 7,500 for regular forequarter.

Import prices in Chile showed little change, in a context of very limited supply from Paraguay for May shipments due to low slaughter levels.

The average value of slaughter cattle in Mercosur increased for the fourth consecutive week. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index rose 2 cents to a record of US$ 5.07 per kilo carcass weight.

Total meat production in Brazil is expected to reach 33.38 million tons in 2026, close to the 2025 record, according to Conab projections. Growth will be led by poultry and pork, while beef production is set to decline in line with the cattle cycle turning phase.

Cattle slaughter in Brazil is estimated to have increased 0.7% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, according to a preliminary estimate by Safras & Mercado.

Feedlot costs in Brazil showed a divergent pattern in March, rising 11.9% in the Center-West to R$ 13.23 per head per day, while in the Southeast they fell 3.6% to R$ 12.19, according to the ICAP indicator from Ponta Agro.

Current record levels in finished male prices are improving the business equation for backgrounders, even with calf prices on the rise. So far in April, the replacement ratio has reached its best level in 12 months, according to Cepea data.

The Brazilian government announced the opening of the Vietnamese market for beef offal exports, including heart, liver, and kidneys, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.

MBRF shares dropped 10.38% on April 15, closing at R$ 19.60 and marking their worst daily performance since the integration with BRF. The company lost about R$ 3.182 billion in market value in a single day, according to Money Times.

Minerva Foods announced the issuance of US$ 600 million in international bonds maturing in 2036, with a 7.5% coupon, through its Luxembourg subsidiary. The transaction, aimed at institutional investors, was 2.5 times oversubscribed, reflecting strong market appetite, the company said.

After reaching record nominal highs, slaughter cattle prices have begun to show signs of stabilization, with the industry exerting downward pressure on purchase prices and downward corrections in forward values.

INAC’s board reviewed this Monday the Executive Branch’s proposal to allocate the 324,000-ton beef quota granted by China to Uruguay for the 2026 calendar year.

Given the criteria governing the allocation of meat quotas in Uruguay, some plants more exposed to the Chinese market will be granted volumes slightly above what they shipped in 2025, while others will be left with a much more comfortable position.

Veterinarian Guillermo de Nava reported pregnancy rates close to 90% in herds in northern Uruguay, although with a slight decline compared to last year and higher costs associated with reproductive management.

The value generated from the sale of all products from a Type Steer 2.0 after processing increased 2.3% in March to US$ 1,976, reaching a new all-time high.

Demand continues to outpace supply in the slaughter cattle market, keeping prices on an upward trend for the fourth consecutive week. The arrival of kosher teams in the country is adding interest for heavy animals, whose supply remains very limited.

Although it increased, cattle slaughter remains very low. INAC reported that in the week to April 18, 28,945 head were processed, 10% more than the previous week but still below 30,000 head for the third consecutive week. A year ago, nearly 11,000 more head had been processed.

Demand for sheep for slaughter remains strong, with prices continuing the gradual but persistent upward trend observed for more than a year.

Exports of chilled and frozen beef reached 61,644 tons (product weight) in March, totaling US$ 419.3 million. The volume represents an increase of 25.1% from the previous month and 38.5% year-on-year.

The average export value in March 2026 reached US$ 6,802 per ton, up 7.1% from February and 42.9% from March 2025, marking the highest level since the peaks seen four years ago following the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war.

In March, beef exports to China reached their highest level since November 2025: 15,918 tons of bone-in beef and bones from deboning were shipped for US$ 43.3 million, along with 22,444 tons of boneless beef for US$ 129.9 million.

Israel imported 2,760 tons of Argentine chilled beef in March, the highest volume ever recorded, making it the leading buyer of this product. The average price also reached a record at US$ 11,082 per ton.

After a decline in February due to uncertainty regarding the new tariff quota, the US regained second place among Argentina’s export destinations, overtaking Israel.

Prices for British-breed cross steers, of higher beef quality, remained in the range of Ar$ 7,900 to 8,200 per kilo carcass weight, while zebu-cross animals traded between Ar$ 7,800 and 8,000. However, several processors indicated that above Ar$ 8,100 they begin to lose money.

The industry is maintaining last week’s listed prices, with references of US$ 4.50 per kg carcass for common males and US$ 4.20–4.25 per kg for finished cows.

Meat consumption in the US continues to show resilience even amid increasing economic pressure on households. According to the Meat Demand Monitor (MDM) for the first quarter of 2026, the share of people regularly consuming animal protein products increased, driven by a lower prevalence of vegetarian and vegan diets.

Feedlot inventories and flows came in largely in line with market expectations, reinforcing a steady but tight cattle supply picture, according to RFD News. USDA reported 11.6 million head on feed as of April 1, essentially matching the average trade estimate of 11.58 million head and down 1% from a year ago.

Cash cattle trade last week broke from the usual end-of-week pattern, with packers purchasing cattle more evenly throughout the week rather than concentrating activity at the close. Prices remained notably stable across regions, with live cattle mostly trading at US$/cwt 248 in both the north and south, and a few deals at US$/cwt 249 on Friday, according to The AG Center.

Compared to the prior market test, US beef import prices were mostly slightly lower, with instances steady to weak.

A sanitary crisis in Russia’s cattle herd began with reports of pasteurellosis in Siberia, but the scale of the official response has raised doubts about the true disease involved. Veterinary authorities have implemented quarantines, movement restrictions, and mass culling across several regions.

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease on the island of Lesbos in Greece is already affecting at least 22 farms since mid-March, with a direct impact on livestock production, particularly dairy. Cases are concentrated in the northeast of the island, within a radius of about four kilometers.

Australian analyst Simon Quilty warned that the global beef market is approaching “tipping points” that could drive a significant increase in prices into 2026 and, especially, 2027.

China’s recent expansion in plant approvals marks a turning point for Australia, with a more qualitative than quantitative impact on beef trade, according to an Australian trader.

China imported around 240 thousand tons of beef in March for US$ 1.385 billion, according to GACC data released by OIG+X. Volume increased 13.2% compared to March 2025, while in value the rise reached 28.5% due to higher average import prices.

China’s sheep meat imports contracted significantly at the start of 2026.

China rejected an estimated 291.0 tons of imported beef in March, with Brazil accounting for the largest share by a wide margin , followed by the US and Argentina.

Brazilian shipments totaled 166.8 tons across 16 plants, with “inconsistent cargo certificate” emerging as the main cause by volume, although a significant portion was also linked to products exceeding shelf life.

China’s pork production increased 4.2% in the first quarter of 2026, reaching 16.69 million tons, in a context of weak consumption and strong downward pressure on prices, according to Reuters.

The economy of China showed a stronger-than-expected rebound in the first quarter of 2026, with GDP expanding 5% year-on-year, driven by industry and exports. However, domestic consumption—and particularly retail sales—continues to be the main weak spot.

This week, China continued suspending approvals for several meat export plants from different origins.