The Chinese market is yet to show a clear signal on how the new pricing and demand dynamics will evolve. After a strong recovery in prices, the market is now in a transition phase, with a slower pace of business compared to previous weeks.

Uncertainty over how the 20% tariff under the Hilton quota will be allocated between exporters and importers from May 1 continues to distort pricing and create disputes for new rump & loin deals under the quota.

The US market remains quiet, with limited deal flow and a wide gap between buyer and seller expectations. Sellers are asking US$/t 7,100–7,500 FOB for 90 CL, while buyers are closer to US$/t 6,800–6,900 FOB.

Despite logistical challenges due to limited flights, kosher crews are expected to return in the coming weeks, with intense negotiations currently underway.

The Chilean market remains firm but with limited transactions amid uncertainty over cattle prices. Brazilian deals were reported around US$/t 6,900, while Paraguay is positioned with a floor of US$/t 7,400.

Cattle slaughter in Mercosur countries, the world’s leading beef-exporting region, is slowing down, and all signs point to a further deceleration throughout the year.

For the first time on record, the average value of slaughter cattle in Mercosur countries exceeded US$ 5 per kg. The increase is supported by tight supply and the strength of regional currencies against the US dollar.

Global beef production in 2026 is forecast to decline by 1% to 61.6 million tons, due to lower output in Brazil, the United States, China, the European Union, and Australia, more than offsetting increases in India, Mexico, and New Zealand, according to projections released by the USDA this week.

In international trade, global exports are forecast to decline 1% to 13.8 million tons, with lower shipments from the three leading exporters (Brazil, Australia, and the United States), along with the European Union. Expected increases in exports from India, Argentina, New Zealand, and Mexico will not be enough to offset the decline from the main global suppliers.

The USDA also projects a sharp decline in beef consumption in China, falling by 869,000 tons to 11.644 million tons as a result of lower imports and domestic production.

The significant increases in the average export value of beef since the start of the year are increasingly reflected in the value of shipments actually executed.

Expectations of lower cattle slaughter and beef production for the current year remain in place, although Agrifatto has moderately revised its projections upward compared to a month ago.

Cattle slaughter in Mato Grosso reached 1.83 million head in the first quarter of 2026, a record for the period and a 6.7% increase compared to the same period in 2025, according to Imea data based on Indea.

JBS and MBRF will implement temporary shutdowns in Mato Grosso amid a sharp rise in finished male prices, which has been increasing industry costs. In JBS’s case, the measure will affect two plants—Agua Boa and Pedra Preta—for around 20 days.

JBS CEO Gilberto Tomazoni warned that finished male prices could decline in the second half of 2026, amid rising supply and constraints in the main export market. The assessment comes as Brazil rapidly uses up its beef export quota to China.

MBRF announced an addendum to its food security agreement with Saudi company Salic, doubling supply volumes and adding beef products.

JBS raised US$ 500 million through a reopening of bonds issued in late March, according to market sources. The operation was split into two tranches of US$ 250 million each, maturing in 2037 and 2057.

The quota imposed by China on Brazilian beef could be reviewed before 2028, according to producer Umberto Paulinelli.

Slaughter cattle prices continue to rise in the spot market, while significant declines have been recorded in the finished male futures market on B3.

Cattle slaughter closed the first quarter with an annual decline of around 10%. However, this gap is expected to narrow over the remainder of the year, particularly in the second half.

Tight supply of slaughter-ready cattle has kept the relationship between cattle purchase prices and export values under pressure.

The board of INAC postponed until next week the vote on the distribution of the China quota for the current year.

Activity in the slaughter cattle market remains minimal, amid virtually nonexistent supply and demand attempting to hold price offers at levels seen over the past two weeks.

After hitting a low during Easter week, cattle slaughter showed a modest increase but remained below 30 thousand head despite the return of some plants to activity.

Despite sheep slaughter remaining at minimal levels —with only one plant operating at relatively significant volumes over the past two weeks— the sheep market remains firm, with stable price references.

According to official data, cattle slaughter reached nearly 1.03 million head in March, up 11.2% month-on-month and down 0.2% year-on-year. However, when adjusted for working days, daily slaughter averaged around 51,500 head, just 0.1% higher than in February.

In March, females accounted for 47.8% of total slaughter, nearly identical to the first-quarter share of 47.7%, which was one percentage point higher than in the same period last year.

With an average carcass weight of 236.4 kg (+3.5% year-on-year), beef production reached 243,300 tons (bone-in) in March, up 12.2% from February and 3.3% higher than in March 2025.

According to the ABC Consortium, member companies accounted for 38.5% of total slaughter in March, nearly 2 percentage points higher than in February and 31.2% above March 2025.

Beef and by-product imports totaled 24,799 tons in 2025, valued at US$ 112.5 million.

The SENASA confirmed three cases of classical scrapie in sheep in the provinces of Santa Fe and Entre Ríos.

The confirmation of three scrapie cases in sheep does not affect beef exports (including bone-in) to key destinations such as China, the European Union, the United States, and Israel, according to SENASA.

Although the market remains somewhat unclear, top export steer prices increased by around Ar$ 100 per kg carcass weight. British-breed crosses are trading at Ar$ 7,900–8,200, while zebu crosses moved to Ar$ 7,800–8,000 per kg carcass weight.

The processing industry has managed to achieve its goal of reducing cattle purchase prices to listed levels of US$ 4.50 per kg carcass weight for common males and US$ 4.25 per kg for finished cows.

The closure of the US–Mexico border has disrupted a key supply flow for the beef chain, leaving an estimated gap of around 1.1 million head annually. For more than three decades, US imports of Mexican cattle averaged between 1.1 and 1.2 million head per year, accounting for just over 3% of US calf production.

Tyson Foods announced the closure of an industrial unit in the state of Georgia as part of a restructuring and cost-cutting process in a challenging environment for the US beef business. In this case, the facility is not a beef processing plant.

Fed cattle trade last week was concentrated toward the end of the week, including Saturday. In the south, Saturday sales were reported at US$/cwt 248–249, while in the north most transactions were around US$/cwt 250 live and US$/cwt 385 dressed, according to The AG Center.

Compared to the prior market test, US beef import prices were steady to firm.

Meat consumption in Germany reached 54.9 kg per capita in 2025, up 1.4 kg from the previous year, according to BZL estimates. The increase was mainly driven by poultry, which hit a record of close to 15 kg per person.

A joint initiative by Dairy Australia and MLA, known as CalfWays, aims to transform the management of non-replacement dairy calves by integrating them into the beef supply chain. The goal is that by 2035, all calves not needed for herd replacement will have a viable commercial pathway, primarily as beef cattle.

A survey conducted by the Red Meat Advisory Council (RMAC) between 20–26 March highlighted growing concerns around fuel availability and rising costs across Australia’s red meat industry. The study gathered responses from 323 participants across 13 sectors, including cattle and sheep producers, feedlots and processors.

From March 15 to 16, 2026, senior economic officials from the United States and China held talks in Paris. Both sides conducted discussions on topics including agricultural trade, critical minerals, and trade management mechanisms, aiming to form actionable arrangements for a potential future meeting between the two heads of state.

Wholesale beef prices in China have remained largely stable since the last quarter of last year, despite the sharp increase in import values following the safeguard measures introduced to protect domestic production from imported beef.

Imported beef inventories in cold storage in China declined slightly in March after reaching peak levels in February, according to OIG+X data.

Felipe Kleiman, director of KML, analyzed the dynamics of the Israeli market in a context of conflict, the opportunities for Mercosur in kosher beef, and the logistical and positioning challenges.