While the outcome of the war in the Middle East continues to generate concern over its consequences for the global economy and inflation, purchase prices for beef from the world’s largest importer strengthened again over the past week.

A trader consulted by WBR added that deals were also concluded for adult sheep carcasses sold to China at US$/t 5,200 CFR from Uruguay, a value not seen in that market for some time. According to the source, the improvement reflects a global shortage of sheep meat, which is pushing prices in China to “adjust to that reality of lower international supply.”

Paraguayan packers continue to close deals with Taiwan.

The conflict in the Gulf and Middle East region is generating uncertainty over beef and sheep meat already in transit to the area.

Regarding logistics with Israel, an importer working with Paraguay told WBR that, “for now,” there are no major disruptions affecting beef trade with that destination. “For now, we continue loading normally and without any problems.

In a context where the supply of chilled beef remains limited in Argentina and Uruguay, prices for rump & loin Hilton cuts tended to stabilize last week after reaching historical record levels in the previous.

The tone of a Brazil with supply and volume in the United States remained this week. “We also have to add the additional quarterly quota of 20,000 tons from Argentina,” explained a regional trader.

Chile’s beef import market is experiencing a period of caution ahead of the presidential transition scheduled for Wednesday, when the new president, José Antonio Kast, will take office.

During the past week, import deals for beef from Brazil into Uruguay were done. One operator reported round cuts at US$/t 6,500 CFR, while chuck and shoulder clod were traded around US$/t 5,600.

The appreciation of the Brazilian real allowed slaughter cattle prices to resume an upward trend in the region, although market conditions remain uneven across the different countries.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) office in Brasília projects that Brazil will export about 4.15 million tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE) of beef in 2026. This would represent a decline of 230,000 tons (-5%) compared to the estimated record in 2025, when shipments reached 4.38 million tons. Even so, Brazil would remain the world’s largest exporter, accounting for about 30% of global trade.

The USDA office in Brasília projects that Brazilian live cattle exports will reach about 1.2 million head in 2026, which would represent an increase compared to the 1.05 million head exported in 2025, driven by stronger international demand.

Brazil’s Senate approved the trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, completing the ratification process in Congress after the Chamber of Deputies gave its backing last week. With this vote, the treaty is now ready for promulgation by the Executive branch.

The average value of beef exports in the last week of February began to clearly reflect the recovery in prices at which meat has been traded since the beginning of the year, after China announced safeguard measures to protect its domestic production, sharply limiting the purchasing capacity for Brazilian product.

In the first two months of the year, Brazil exported 415,000 tons of frozen beef and 52,500 tons of chilled beef, with frozen shipments rising 32% year-on-year while chilled exports declined 7%.

Data for the second month of the year show Brazilian beef exports to China totaling 103,549 tons, about 16,000 tons less than in January and 83,000 tons below the peaks reached in September and October last year. However, shipments were 11,000 tons higher than in February 2025, possibly reflecting the urgency among importers and exporters to secure part of the limited quota available for this year.

Brazilian beef exports to the United States jumped in February to 33,234 tons, 8,300 tons more than in January and the highest monthly volume since April last year.

Brazilian exports of chilled beef to European Union member states began the year with volumes significantly higher than in the previous two years.

Brazilian beef exporters grouped in Abiec warned of a potentially massive impact from the war in the Middle East on beef exports, a claim strongly contested by the National Confederation of Agriculture (CNA), which represents producers. The organization argued that the figures are significantly overstated and that exporters’ projections aim to push domestic cattle prices lower.

According to export data by destination, Middle Eastern countries imported 223,960 tons of Brazilian beef in 2025, generating US$ 1.217 billion in revenue. The volume represented 6.5% of Brazil’s shipments of beef and beef byproducts, while in value terms it accounted for 6.8% of the total.

The conflict in the Middle East has begun to represent a new risk factor for part of Brazil’s live cattle exports. According to an analysis by Agrifatto, the market’s main concern is not necessarily a direct disruption to trade but the indirect impacts of geopolitical instability on logistics, transport costs and shipping times.

The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran has begun to generate significant additional logistics costs for Brazilian beef exporters. According to estimates from Macroinfra Consultores, a container ship carrying refrigerated cargo that is forced to wait for alternative routes could incur up to US$ 570,000 per day in additional demurrage costs.

The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran has begun to generate significant additional logistics costs for Brazilian beef exporters. According to estimates from Macroinfra Consultores, a container ship carrying refrigerated cargo that is forced to wait for alternative routes could incur up to US$ 570,000 per day in additional demurrage costs.

Brazilian beef producer Frigol signed an industrial processing services agreement with the slaughterhouse DistriBoi, in the state of Rondônia, covering its plants in Ji-Paraná and Rolim de Moura.

Cattle prices for slaughter ended five consecutive weeks of gains and corrected moderately downward in the latest week, pressured by a more cautious stance from demand, which cites difficulties in placing products in international markets due to the war in the Middle East.

San Jacinto slaughterhouse, owned by the Urgal family, plans to halt operations for “at least two weeks” due to staff leave, while Minerva confirmed it will suspend slaughter at its Canelones plant starting March 24, WBR learned.

The Paysandú-based plant, Casa Blanca slaughterhouse, will send 400 workers to unemployment insurance due to the unviability of operations at current cattle prices.

The meatpacking industry radically changed its stance over the past week. Most slaughterhouses are not active in the market, meaning they are not quoting prices and those that are offering bids around 20–30 cents below the references that prevailed until early last week.

The slowdown in demand was reflected not only in the prices offered by packers, but also in activity levels. In the week ending March 7, INAC reported that 36,855 cattle were slaughtered, 5,108 fewer than the previous week (-12%) and nearly 1,500 head fewer than in the same period last year, which had been Carnival week. It was the lowest activity level since the first week of the year.

The slaughter sheep market remains very firm despite the departure of the kosher team that had been working with this species in the country. “There is simply no supply,” said an intermediary consulted yesterday afternoon. Lamb prices are around US$ 5.75–5.80 per kilo carcass weight, while adult sheep are trading around US$ 4.85.

The United States Customs and Border Protection removed the phrase “lean beef trimmings” from the new 80,000-ton tariff quota for Argentine beef and replaced it with “beef products,” an issue that had raised concerns within the industry.

Gorina slaughterhouse, one of the country’s main processors, has reportedly entered into an equal partnership with the agribusiness company Juramento in the Bermejo slaughterhouse, located in the province of Salta in northern Argentina, according to the newspaper La Nación.

In February, 924,333 cattle were slaughtered, 8.9% fewer than the previous month and 10.6% fewer than in the same month of 2025. So far in 2026, slaughter is down 11% year-on-year.

Prices for higher-quality export steers continue to range between Ar$ 8,200 and 8,400 per kilo carcass weight, while crossbred zebu steers declined by Ar$ 100 to a range of Ar$ 8,100 to 8,200 per kilo carcass weight.

Cattle slaughter at export plants in Paraguay posted a sharp decline during the first two months of the year. According to Senacsa data, it totaled 308,199 head, 27% less than in the same period of 2025 and the lowest level for the first two months of the year since 2023.

Paraguayan beef exports started 2026 with volumes below those of the previous year. The decline is driven by a significant drop in cattle slaughter.

Paraguay is in the final stage of enabling bilateral beef trade with Bolivia, a step that will allow exports to the Bolivian market while also opening the possibility of importing cuts from that country, as the sector seeks to expand markets and strengthen domestic supply.

An intermediary consulted by World Beef Report (WBR) said the cattle market for slaughter in Paraguay continues to show very limited supply, making it difficult for the industry to push prices lower.

Retail meat sales in the US climbed to a new record of US$ 112 billion in 2025, a 2% year-on-year increase, according to the 21st annual Power of Meat report released by the Meat Institute and FMI—The Food Industry Association at the Annual Meat Conference.

Last week’s fed cattle trade in the north of the USA developed mostly at US$/cwt 240 live and US$/cwt 380 dressed, steady with the lower end of the previous week’s range. Dressed sales were about US$/cwt 3 lower. In the south, cattle traded at US$/cwt 240–242, with late sales near the lower end following the sharp drop in live cattle futures.

Compared to the prior market test, imported beef prices in the US were moderately to sharply lower. Trading activity was slow to moderate.

The Council of the European Union approved the regulation that will allow the safeguard clauses included in the trade agreement between Mercosur and the EU to be applied to sensitive agricultural products, including beef. The rule seeks to strengthen the protection of European producers in cases where imports from South America threaten to disrupt the market.

The first shipment of tariff-free British beef has arrived in the United States under the Economic Prosperity Agreement between the United Kingdom and the United States. The agreement establishes a reciprocal quota of 13,000 tons, with a potential value of up to £70 million (US$ 88.5 million) per year if fully utilized.

The FAO meat price index averaged 126.2 points in February, up 1 point (0.8%) from its revised January value and 9.4 points (8.0%) above its level a year earlier.

The conflict in the Middle East is creating the most severe disruption to red meat export logistics since the covid crisis of 2019–2020. In recent days, 11 Gulf countries closed their airspace and major shipping companies suspended transits through the Strait of Hormuz following US military actions and Iranian retaliation.

Market conditions remain favorable across Australia’s livestock supply chain as good seasonal conditions in key regions continue and demand remains strong. Rainfall in major sheep-producing areas has shifted producer sentiment, encouraging stock retention and tightening supply available to processors, MLA said.

Japan’s beef imports are expected to remain virtually unchanged in 2026, according to the latest report from the USDA office in Tokyo, with purchases estimated at around 695,000 tons carcass weight, a volume similar to 2025.

China has urged domestic pig producers to proactively reduce production and halt expansion plans amid an oversupply situation and weakening demand in the world’s largest pork market.

Pablo Domínguez, CEO of ONE Uruguay, analyzes the country’s logistical positioning, the impact of international conflicts on maritime transport costs, and the opportunities for beef exports.