The USDA office in New Delhi projects that India’s beef and, primarily, buffalo meat (carabeef) exports will reach 1.7 million tons (carcass weight equivalent) in 2026, slightly above 2025 levels, when shipments are estimated to have climbed to 1.69 million tons, more than 10% higher than the previous year. It would be the bulkiest export volume since 2017.
Export momentum is driven by steady demand in traditional markets — particularly the Middle East and South Asia — and by the competitive pricing of Indian carabeef, supported by the depreciation of the rupee against the U.S. dollar.
In 2025, Egypt consolidated its position as the leading destination, followed by Vietnam, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Iraq. Shipments to Russia, Uzbekistan, and Georgia also posted strong growth. For 2026, the report anticipates that trade flows will remain solid, with supply clearly oriented toward export markets.
On the production side, total bovine slaughter — mainly buffalo — is forecast to rise to 42 million head in 2026 (from 41.6 million in 2025), while meat production is projected at 4.73 million tons carcass weight equivalent, above the 4.68 million tons estimated for 2025. The increase is largely export-driven, although structural growth remains constrained by limited animal availability, as bovine slaughter in India largely comes from unproductive animals from the dairy sector rather than herds raised specifically for meat.
Regarding domestic consumption, the USDA projects 3.03 million tons for 2026, in a context of tighter domestic supplies due to strong external demand. For 2025, consumption was revised slightly downward (to around 3.0 million tons) as a result of higher exports and firmer domestic prices. In fact, wholesale prices for beef and carabeef have followed an upward trend since 2022, outpacing other proteins, supported by higher production costs and improved export price realization.
With a herd stable at around 307.5 million head and no changes in its restrictive import policy — which effectively blocks beef imports — India reinforces its position as a major global supplier of buffalo meat, with sector growth increasingly conditioned by animal availability and the dynamics of international demand.
