With the return of the first Chinese operators after the Lunar New Year holidays — many are still on vacation — the market showed immediate signs of reactivation, with prices mostly firm.

Business for Hilton rump & loin cuts remained firm last week, with deals for top Argentine brands in a range of US$/t 20,500–20,800 FOB. “Not everyone buys at these prices, and not everyone sells,” an Argentine exporter said.

A regional trader confirmed that the U.S. market continues firm, with gradual week-on-week increases. “It’s firm again. Not explosive, but every week it ticks up a bit: US$/t 50, 80, 100 — it depends,” he said.

In talks with WBR, a trader said Argentina’s industry is “extremely excited” about reports that a mechanism may have been agreed with the U.S. to allow use of the new quota not only for manufacturing beef but also for cuts. However, he highlighted a key issue: so far, there is no formal backing from the U.S. side.

An intermediary said the Chilean market is experiencing commercial tension. “They’re looking for cheaper options, but beef is expensive everywhere,” he summarized.

In conversation with WBR, a Brazilian exporter warned of a difficult situation for his company. “To be honest, I see the market in its worst scenario since the pandemic,” he said, describing a combination of very high and still rising cattle prices, along with insufficient slaughter that worsens product scarcity in the domestic market.

The World Beef Report (WBR) Mercosur Steer Index posted another week of strong gains, reaching new nominal highs. The regional average stood at US$/kg 4.85 carcass, up 12 cents from seven days earlier (+2.4%).

Brazilian beef exports have maintained a strong pace so far in February. The Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) reported that in the first three weeks of the month, 192,707 tons were shipped abroad for a total of US$ 1.082 billion.

Brazilian meatpackers have advanced a proposal to distribute the 1.106 million-ton China quota allocated to Brazil among exporters during the first three quarters of the year, in order to prevent part of the shipments made in 2025 from being counted against the 2026 quota, according to the portal Pecuaria.

The price of a 7@ calf in Mato Grosso stood at R$/@ 438 in the second week of February, up 5.2% compared to the same period in January. In parallel, the finished male averaged R$/@ 302.8, posting a more moderate 2.1% monthly increase.

The combination of a strong upward trend in finished male prices in reais and the appreciation of the Brazilian currency against the U.S. dollar has significantly increased slaughter cattle references in dollar terms.

The special Parliamentary commission created to review the Interim Trade Agreement between Mercosur and the European Union approved on Monday the bill enabling its ratification, with support from the Frente Amplio, the National Party, and the Colorado Party.

As rarely happens in a country of limited size, there is a markedly different situation between the southern half and the north. While the north has enjoyed an almost well-watered summer, in the south — and particularly in the southeast — drought conditions are intensifying day by day.

At the parliamentary commission analyzing the Mercosur–EU agreement, Uruguay’s meat industry warned about the loss of value added, employment and profitability stemming from the export of 400,000 head of live cattle in 2025 and called for allowing imports of live animals from the region.

With limited activity due to the Chinese New Year, the Rosario plant is operating partially and awaiting GACC approval, while Lorsinal remains idle pending funding. Both plants are owned by a Chinese investment group.

Frigorífico Florida resumes industrial activity today with its first trial slaughter. A total of 39 heifers will be processed in this initial run, after which the plant plans to gradually increase activity starting next week, Pablo Avero, one of the main executives of the Florida-based facility, confirmed to WBR.

Amid a sharp rise in cattle prices and tight availability of grassfed finished cattle, Brazilian multinational MBRF has decided to grant a one-month leave to employees at its Colonia plant. So far this year, the facility has processed just over 17,000 head, accounting for 5.3% of total industrial slaughter in the country.

Intermediaries consulted by WBR described a market with “very limited supply”, few transactions of grass-finished cattle and short plant bookings, under one week at the end of February.

Lower activity during the first two days of the week due to the Carnival holiday — although most plants continued operating — combined with the end of the production window for the EU 481 quota led to a decline in slaughter activity last week.

With San Jacinto and Las Piedras resuming sheep operations — after not processing the species in the previous two weeks — sheep slaughter increased by more than 5,000 head and reached the highest level of the past four weeks.

The general strike without mobilization called for Thursday, February 19, by Argentina’s General Confederation of Labor (CGT), in protest against the labor reform promoted by the government, had a variable but significant impact on the export meatpacking industry.

In the first month of 2026, exports of fresh and frozen beef reached 52,413 tons (product weight), totaling US$ 332.9 million. Compared to the previous month, these figures represent a decline of 8.2% in volume and 2.2% in value.

The average price per ton of exported chilled beef reached US$ 6,351 in January, up 6.5% from the previous month, 28.6% above January 2025, and the highest since December 2017.

Shipments to China, the main destination for Argentine beef, fell sharply in January 2026, totaling 12,747 tons of bone-in beef and bones from deboning (US$ 27.9 million) and 17,339 tons of boneless beef (US$ 90.5 million).

Exports of chilled beef to Europe — driven by German purchases — totaled 3,682 tons (46% more than in January 2025), at an average price of US$ 14,164 per ton, the highest in at least the past eight years.

Sales to the United States set record volumes and prices in January for both chilled and frozen beef. Argentina shipped 1,145 tons of chilled cuts and 6,912 tons of frozen beef to the U.S., increases of 149% and 147%, respectively, compared to January 2025.

Export cattle prices held at record levels, supported by tight supply and strong export demand, which continues to show excellent prospects. Export crossbred steers are trading at Ar$ 8,100 to 8,350 per kilo carcass weight, while Zebu-cross steers remain in the Ar$ 8,000 to 8,200 per kilo carcass weight range.

Paraguay’s cattle herd is expected to post another decline in 2026 once vaccination data are finalized. This would mark the sixth consecutive annual drop and a cumulative loss of more than 1.3 million head over the five-year period.

A Paraguayan market intermediary reported that slaughter activity remains firm despite the start of the vaccination campaign, with prices resisting downward pressure from the industry. List prices for standard steers stand at US$/kg 4.65, while cows are trading around US$ 4.30–4.40. According to the source, processors attempted last week to “shake the tree” to push prices lower, but without success.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority in imposing global tariffs under a national emergency law.

JBS Global CEO Gilberto Tomazoni said during the Cagny conference in New York that the growth in protein demand represents a structural and lasting shift in the food industry. According to the executive, the company has consolidated its position as a global food platform, focusing on convenience and nutrition brands to meet new demographic demands, with particular emphasis on Generation Z and the pursuit of healthy longevity.

The National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA) welcomed the announcement that US beef will receive duty-free access to Indonesia under a new trade agreement signed by President Donald Trump.

The US Department of Agriculture reported that cattle placements into US feedlots of more than 1,000 head during January 2026 totaled 1.736 million head, down 5% from January 2025. Most of the placements were lighter and middle-weight cattle.

Last week’s cash cattle trade in the north was reported at US$/cwt 247–249 live and US$/cwt 388 dressed. Live prices were US$/cwt 1–3 higher, while dressed values gained US$/cwt 6 compared to the previous week.

Compared to the last market test, imported beef prices in the US were mostly slightly to moderately higher, with some instances reported as sharply higher. Trading activity ranged from slow to moderate, with increased interest in forward sales for April–May delivery.

Australian beef will remain exempt from the new 15% baseline tariff announced by the United States government, while sheepmeat and goatmeat will face higher duties, according to Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA).

New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirms that 2025 was a record year for Australia’s beef sector, with annual production reaching 2.87 million tons, up 12% year-on-year. Cattle slaughter totaled 9.28 million head, also 12% higher than 2024 and the highest since 1978. Average carcase weights reached 309 kg for the year, supported by favorable northern pasture conditions.

The USDA office in Beijing projects a year-on-year decline in beef consumption in China in 2026, amid continued weak demand and tighter trade conditions.

Japan has lifted its restrictions on imports of Belgian beef as of February 10. The decision follows years of negotiations between the Belgian and Japanese governments.

Beef exports to China posted a sharp contraction in January. The first month of the year typically features relatively low shipment volumes, a situation likely compounded by the safeguard measure aimed at protecting domestic production, announced on the last day of 2025.

South Korea imported 87,162 metric tons of beef in January 2026, marking the highest monthly volume on record, according to data from the Korea Customs Service. The figure represents a 39.8% year-on-year increase, reinforcing Korea’s position as the world’s fourth-largest beef importer.

Globally, the numbers are not there as cattle cycles come into sync.

In December 2025, the USDA FAS team forecasted that global beef production would decline by 1.5% in 2026 and that global beef exports would decline by 1.1%. Within weeks of this report, holes are starting to appear in this report.