The shift in the Chinese market was abrupt. “Until recently it was completely dead, and with the safeguard measure everything turned around,” an operator told World Beef Report (WBR). The reaction was immediate, and importers are now showing strong urgency to secure volumes, driven by “fears” that they could run out of beef in the second half of the year, a trader said, referring to the likelihood that Brazilian and Australian quotas could be filled in the first half.

A Paraguayan exporter told WBR that demand in Taiwan remains stable, with price improvements in some cuts.

Prices for rump & loin Hilton cuts rose another step last week, driven by Argentina. Import and export sources cited deals in a wide range of US$/t 18,600–19,300 FOB, while on Tuesday one agent said deals were closed at US$/t 19,500 for reputed brands.

In addition to ongoing interest from the United States —after the rapid filling of the 52,000-ton quota for third countries— Canada joined the market last week. A regional broker cited deals from Chile for 90 CL at US$/t 7,300 CIF and 90 VL at US$/t 7,150 CIF.

A Chilean importer told WBR the market remains sluggish with no major changes. Paraguayan beef is offered at US$/t 7,000–7,100 for the 19/20 cuts, though some companies are attempting US$/t 7,300–7,400—seen as “unrealistic” for local conditions. Nevertheless, a Paraguayan processor confirmed sizable shipments at US$/t 7,250–7,300 CIF for the 19 cuts, amid tight cattle supply for slaughter in Paraguay.

The 2026 edition of Gulfood in the United Arab Emirates will be the largest and most transformative yet. It runs from Monday the 26th to the 30th, across two venues, the Dubai World Trade Centre (DWTC) and the Dubai Exhibition Centre (DEC) at Expo City—bringing together more than 6,500 exhibitors from over 130 countries.

The sheepmeat market remains challenging. “It’s difficult whichever way you look at it,” an operator told WBR, citing weaker Middle East demand, limited reactivation from China, and shrinking supply in Uruguay.

A regional market operator told WBR that Uruguay is importing Mercosur cuts at firm prices. Brazilian chuck and shoulder clod are trading around US$/t 5,200 CFR, while Paraguayan round cuts are at US$/t 6,200.

The average value of slaughter cattle in the region rose for the fourth consecutive week. The World Beef Report Mercosur Steer Index increased by 2 cents in the week to US$ 4.35 per kilo, accumulating a recovery of 10 cents over the past four weeks.

The free trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and Mercosur was finally signed last Saturday in Asunción, Paraguay. After more than 25 years of negotiations, the agreement was sealed amid strong opposition from European agricultural producers, who warn about the threat of competition from South American countries at more competitive prices.

The free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union (EU) could increase Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.5% in 2035, according to a World Bank study nearing completion. In addition to boosting trade and economic activity, the deal is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Brazilian companies—especially in the manufacturing sector, Valor reported.

Any material impact of the Mercosur-EU trade deal on Brazilian beef exports should emerge only from 2027, according to Roberto Perosa, president of the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (ABIEC), informed Valor.

The EU–Mercosur agreement assigns several quotas to Mercosur exporters, which go beyond the products of greatest interest to Uruguay. The country will seek to secure a stronger position in the negotiation of the portions to be used for beef, rice, honey and dairy products, Deputy Foreign Minister Valeria Csukasi told the program 100% Mercados.

Brazilian beef exports fell to a nearly one-year low in the second week of January.

According to information from the Secretaria de Comércio Exterior, shipments totaled 126,254 tons through January 17, at an average value of US$/t 5,544. Excluding data from the first six business days of the year, shipments last week amounted to just 36,947 tons, with a daily average of 7,389 tons—the lowest level since early last year.

Brazil would be preparing an internal management plan for the quota granted by China to beef exports from this origin, with the aim of preventing sales from bunching up in the first months of the year and running out of available quota for the second half, the Australian portal Beef Central reported.

Brazilian beef exporting meatpackers requested a range of support measures from the government to help mitigate the negative impact of the limited import quota established by China for this year.

Brazil’s cattle cycle will begin to move past the herd liquidation phase, which peaked in 2025, leading to lower beef production and exports this year.

Brazil continues to move forward in the process of approving meatpacking plants for the export of beef (bone-in and boneless) to Vietnam, a market that was officially opened to Brazilian product on March 28, 2025.

The government of Rio Grande do Sul launched a new stage of the Refaz Reconstruction program aimed exclusively at the meatpacking sector, with the goal of regularizing ICMS tax debts, the DBO portal reported.

The difference between the price of the arroba of finished male cattle in São Paulo and the wholesale carcass price in the São Paulo market reached its widest level for the first half of January 2026 since at least 2002, with a spread of R$/@ 25.9, according to the Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada (Cepea). As of Wednesday the 14th, the Cepea/Esalq indicator placed finished male cattle at R$/@ 318.87, while the dressed carcass was quoted at R$/@ 344.77.

Lower domestic demand for beef typical of the second half of the month is weighing on packers’ buying interest, putting downward pressure on reference prices for slaughter cattle.

Uruguay is not considering moving forward with regulations on the beef quota granted by China. This was stated to WBR by the president of the Instituto Nacional de Carnes (INAC), Gastón Scayola.

Uruguay exported 371,210 head of live cattle in 2025, up 7% (26 thousand) from the previous year and increasing for the third consecutive year, according to the National Meat Institute (INAC). It was also the second-highest annual figure on record, behind only the 420,000 head exported in 2018.

After a year of almost uninterrupted increases in INAC’s Type Steer 2.0 indicator, December recorded a small downward adjustment. Last month, the decline in the average value of the export basket, offal and by-products led to a 1.2% drop in the indicator (–US$ 22 per head).

Lou Rinaldi, the United States ambassador to Uruguay, announced last Thursday that he is focused on increasing the export quota for Uruguayan products to his country, particularly beef and citrus products such as oranges and lemons. According to the Efe news agency, Rinaldi made the announcement after meeting with Uruguayan President Yamandú Orsi at the presidential residence in Montevideo.

Demand for slaughter cattle is comfortably exceeding supply, keeping the market overheated, with price increases totaling US$ 0.25 per kilo carcass weight since the start of the year.

There is a combination of very strong demand —driven by improved conditions in international markets— and scarce supply. “Packers’ buyers call you and ask at what price the producer wants to sell,” a livestock broker illustrated yesterday.

Cattle slaughter posted a modest increase last week. Instituto Nacional de Carnes (INAC) reported that in the week ending January 17, 41,816 head were processed, 972 more than the previous week, although nearly 9,000 fewer than in the same week last year.

The sheepmeat market remains firm, with prices on the rise. Although not all plants working with the species are actively buying, supply is limited and prices tend to increase.

China’s intention to apply a “first come, first served” system to the new beef quota that will be in force for the next three years could be detrimental to the value chain, according to analyst Miguel Gorelik.

There were no changes in export cattle prices during the week. Crossbred steers of British breeds, with better meat quality, are trading at around Ar$ 7,700–7,900 per kilo carcass weight, while steers from zebu crosses remain at Ar$ 7,400–7,600 per kilo.

Paraguay’s National Competition Commission (Conacom) has opened an ex officio preliminary investigation into the high level of concentration in the meatpacking industry and its potential effects on price formation, according to ValorAgro.

Cattle prices in Paraguay strengthened for the third consecutive week amid a scenario of scarce supply of grassfed finished animals, an industry source told WBR.

US beef and variety meat exports totaled 93,448 mt in October, down 11% year-over-year but the largest since June and 16% above the low volume posted in September, informed the US Meat Export Federation (Usmef) based in USDA data. Muscle cut exports accounted for 67,885 tons.

Beef and veal prices rose 1% in December and accumulated a year-on-year increase of 16,4%, according to the latest US inflation data. The main driver behind this sharp rise continues to be the historically low cattle herd, which has tightened supply. Economists also point to recent processing plant closures and higher feed costs as factors exacerbating the situation.

Packers achieved some improvement in boxed beef prices and, supported by the sharp drop in cattle futures, managed to purchase cattle at steady prices last week.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices rose sharply. Trading was slow to moderate, with increased activity seen in late February and early March.

On Wednesday, persistent rumors circulated in China that beef stored at destination ports awaiting entry into the country, and that had not cleared before January 1, would be counted as part of the 2026 quota.

In December, China received 210,000 tons of beef worth US$ 1.117 billion, according to GACC data released by OIG+X. Volumes dropped sharply by 23.5% compared with the same month of 2024, preventing an increase in total annual import volumes.

The quota assigned by China to the different beef suppliers for this year differs significantly when compared with the volumes imported from the main origins in 2025.

In 2025, China imported 98,096 tons of frozen boneless beef from Bolivia, positioning the Andean country as the fourth-largest origin in that segment, surpassing Uruguay.

China’s economy lost more momentum last quarter even as it met the government’s target in 2025, in another year of lopsided growth that will be hard to sustain in an era of protectionism around the world, informed Bloomberg.

Between Monday and Tuesday this week, China approved the entry of poultry meat from the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, and beef from Canada.